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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sun (+2.5) a 62.3-46% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 159 around 52.7-58.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sun have a 68.6% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 49.1% chance of going over the total.


Liberty Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Rest advantage

Baller Systems
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Sun Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge
Rest disadvantage

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Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/11NYLNYL -9.5
CHI +9.5
165.5CHI---
7/10CONNYL -2.5
CON +2.5
159NYL---
7/6IND [ 83 ]NYL -10.5
IND +10.5
174.5NYL [ 78 ]-5-15.5-13.5
7/2NYL [ 76 ]NYL -6
MIN +6
169MIN [ 67 ]+9+3-26
6/30NYL [ 81 ]NYL -15.5
ATL +15.5
168ATL [ 75 ]+6-9.5-12
6/25NYL [ 89 ]NYL -6
MIN +6
164.5MIN [ 94 ]-5-11+18.5
6/23ATL [ 75 ]NYL -9
ATL +9
165.5NYL [ 96 ]+21+12+5.5
6/22NYL [ 98 ]NYL -14.5
LAS +14.5
169LAS [ 88 ]+10-4.5+17
6/20NYL [ 93 ]NYL -14
LAS +14
167LAS [ 80 ]+13-1+6
6/18PHO [ 99 ]NYL -5.5
PHO +5.5
171.5NYL [ 93 ]-6-11.5+20.5

Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/14CONCON -7.5
PHO +7.5
158.5PHO---
7/10CONCON +2.5
NYL -2.5
159NYL---
7/7CON [ 80 ]CON -14.5
ATL +14.5
150.5ATL [ 67 ]+13-1.5-3.5
7/4MIN [ 73 ]CON +3.5
MIN -3.5
150.5CON [ 78 ]+5+8.5+0.5
7/1PHO [ 72 ]CON -3
PHO +3
157.5CON [ 83 ]+11+8-2.5
6/28CON [ 74 ]CON -9.5
ATL +9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]-4-13.5+2
6/27WAS [ 91 ]CON -10.5
WAS +10.5
152CON [ 94 ]+3-7.5+33
6/23SEA [ 72 ]CON +1
SEA -1
154CON [ 61 ]-11-10-21
6/21LVA [ 85 ]CON +5
LVA -5
165.5CON [ 74 ]-11-6-6.5
6/18CON [ 79 ]CON -13
LAS +13
154LAS [ 70 ]+9-4-5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/24NYLCON +8
NYL -8
158CON--------
7/16NYLCON -2
NYL +2
152.5CON--------
7/10CONCON +2.5
NYL -2.5
159NYL--------
6/8CON [ 75 ]CON +2
NYL -2
154NYL [ 82 ]-7-5+392.697.2106.3-9.1157
10/1CON [ 84 ]CON +5.5
NYL -5.5
160.5NYL [ 87 ]-3+2.5+10.595.5105.5109.3-3.8171
9/29CON [ 81 ]CON +4
NYL -4
158NYL [ 92 ]-11-7+1591106.8121.3-14.5173
9/26NYL [ 84 ]CON +9.5
NYL -9.5
159CON [ 77 ]-7+2.5+290.4102.2111.4-9.3161
9/24NYL [ 63 ]CON +8.5
NYL -8.5
163CON [ 78 ]+15+23.5-2281115.593.322.2141
9/1NYL [ 89 ]CON +7
NYL -7
160CON [ 58 ]-31-24-1390.377.1118.3-41.2147
8/24CON [ 90 ]CON +6
NYL -6
166NYL [ 95 ]-5+1+1990.5108.1114.1-6167.5
6/27CON [ 81 ]CON +4.5
NYL -4.5
168NYL [ 89 ]-8-3.5+294103.4113.6-10.2170


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h13-6-38-2-20-0-04-4-11-0-01-0-11-0-14-2-04-1-2
Liberty 17-510-20-06-31-02-02-05-15-2
Sun 1h12-7-28-1-10-0-14-3-00-3-00-1-01-0-04-3-15-2-0
Sun 17-49-10-17-01-21-00-16-25-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h8-14-04-8-00-0-03-6-01-0-01-1-01-1-03-3-02-5-0
Liberty 8-14-02-10-00-0-05-4-01-0-01-1-01-1-02-4-04-3-0
Sun 1h10-11-06-4-01-0-03-4-00-3-00-1-00-1-05-3-02-5-0
Sun 9-12-04-6-00-1-04-3-01-2-00-1-00-1-03-5-03-4-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h10-12-07-5-00-0-03-6-00-1-01-1-02-0-03-3-04-3-0
Liberty 12-10-08-4-00-0-04-5-00-1-02-0-02-0-02-4-05-2-0
Sun 1h5-16-02-8-00-1-03-4-00-3-01-0-00-1-01-7-01-6-0
Sun 9-11-13-6-11-0-04-3-01-2-01-0-01-0-03-5-03-3-1

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h11-11-06-6-00-0-04-5-01-0-01-1-02-0-03-3-04-3-0
Liberty 12-10-06-6-00-0-05-4-01-0-02-0-02-0-03-3-05-2-0
Sun 1h5-15-12-8-00-0-13-4-00-3-01-0-00-1-02-5-11-6-0
Sun 10-11-03-7-00-1-06-1-01-2-01-0-00-1-04-4-02-5-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h12-9-18-4-00-0-04-4-10-1-01-0-11-1-03-3-04-2-1
Liberty 11-11-07-5-00-0-04-5-00-1-01-1-01-1-01-5-03-4-0
Sun 1h6-15-00-10-00-1-04-3-02-1-01-0-00-1-03-5-01-6-0
Sun 8-13-03-7-01-0-04-3-00-3-01-0-01-0-02-6-03-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sun0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)0-2-0 (0%)4-3-0 (57.1%)2-3-0 (40%)2-3-0 (40%)
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)2-3-0 (40%)3-0-0 (100%)1-11-0 (8.3%)