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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sparks (+4.5) a 26.4-39% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 158.5 around 52-51.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sparks have a 41.2% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 53.8% chance of going over the total.


Lynx Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Sparks Situational Notes
In season revenge
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Lynx Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/12SEAMIN +6
SEA -6
154MIN---
7/9LASMIN -4.5
LAS +4.5
158.5MIN---
7/6MIN [ 74 ]MIN -9
WAS +9
158WAS [ 67 ]+7-2-17
7/4MIN [ 73 ]MIN -3.5
CON +3.5
150.5CON [ 78 ]-5-8.5+0.5
7/2NYL [ 76 ]MIN +6
NYL -6
169MIN [ 67 ]-9-3-26
6/30CHI [ 62 ]MIN -7
CHI +7
163.5MIN [ 70 ]+8+1-31.5
6/27DAL [ 94 ]MIN -9
DAL +9
164MIN [ 88 ]-6-15+18
6/25NYL [ 89 ]MIN +6
NYL -6
164.5MIN [ 94 ]+5+11+18.5
6/22MIN [ 73 ]MIN -6
PHO +6
167.5PHO [ 60 ]+13+7-34.5
6/19MIN [ 68 ]MIN -9.5
ATL +9.5
162.5ATL [ 55 ]+13+3.5-39.5

Sparks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/13DALLAS +3.5
DAL -3.5
171LAS---
7/9LASLAS +4.5
MIN -4.5
158.5MIN---
7/7LAS [ 78 ]LAS +4
PHO -4
167.5PHO [ 84 ]-6-2-5.5
7/5LAS [ 98 ]LAS +13
LVA -13
173.5LVA [ 93 ]+5+18+17.5
7/2LAS [ 80 ]LAS -1.5
WAS +1.5
162.5WAS [ 82 ]-2-3.5-0.5
6/28PHO [ 92 ]LAS +10
PHO -10
168.5LAS [ 78 ]-14-4+1.5
6/22NYL [ 98 ]LAS +14.5
NYL -14.5
169LAS [ 88 ]-10+4.5+17
6/20NYL [ 93 ]LAS +14
NYL -14
167LAS [ 80 ]-13+1+6
6/18CON [ 79 ]LAS +13
CON -13
154LAS [ 70 ]-9+4-5
6/16ATL [ 87 ]LAS +5
ATL -5
161LAS [ 74 ]-13-80

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/19MINLAS +4.5
MIN -4.5
158.5LAS--------
7/9LASLAS +4.5
MIN -4.5
158.5MIN--------
6/14MIN [ 81 ]LAS +12
MIN -12
159.5LAS [ 76 ]-5+7-2.597.393.899.9-6.2157
6/5LAS [ 62 ]LAS +7
MIN -7
154.5MIN [ 86 ]-24-17-6.595.478108.2-30.2148
7/20MIN [ 73 ]LAS +4
MIN -4
164.5LAS [ 70 ]-3+1-21.59588.492.2-3.8143
6/20LAS [ 61 ]LAS -5.5
MIN +5.5
158MIN [ 67 ]-6-11.5-3092.379.387.1-7.8128
6/16LAS [ 72 ]LAS -5.5
MIN +5.5
161.5MIN [ 77 ]-5-10.5-12.587.199.2106.1-6.9149
6/11MIN [ 91 ]LAS -1.5
MIN +1.5
160.5LAS [ 86 ]-5-6.5+16.595.9107.7113.9-6.3177


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h13-7-26-2-12-1-02-2-03-2-11-0-01-0-01-2-05-2-0
Lynx 16-68-12-12-24-21-01-02-13-4
Sparks 1h6-14-11-2-02-4-10-0-03-8-00-0-00-0-03-3-01-4-0
Sparks 5-161-23-40-01-100-00-02-41-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h12-9-13-5-12-1-01-3-06-0-01-0-01-0-02-1-03-3-1
Lynx 14-8-05-4-02-1-02-2-05-1-01-0-01-0-02-1-03-4-0
Sparks 1h11-10-01-2-04-3-00-0-06-5-00-0-00-0-03-3-02-3-0
Sparks 9-12-00-3-03-4-00-0-06-5-00-0-00-0-01-5-03-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h7-14-12-6-10-3-01-3-04-2-00-1-01-0-01-1-12-5-0
Lynx 9-12-14-5-01-2-01-3-03-2-10-1-01-0-02-0-13-4-0
Sparks 1h8-12-11-2-02-4-10-0-05-6-00-0-00-0-01-5-01-4-0
Sparks 10-10-11-2-03-4-00-0-06-4-10-0-00-0-02-4-02-2-1

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h11-11-02-7-02-1-02-2-05-1-01-0-01-0-01-2-03-4-0
Lynx 13-9-04-5-02-1-02-2-05-1-01-0-01-0-03-0-02-5-0
Sparks 1h10-11-01-2-04-3-00-0-05-6-00-0-00-0-03-3-01-4-0
Sparks 10-10-10-2-14-3-00-0-06-5-00-0-00-0-01-4-12-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h7-14-13-6-00-3-01-3-03-2-10-1-01-0-02-1-02-5-0
Lynx 7-15-03-6-01-2-02-2-01-5-00-1-00-1-02-1-03-4-0
Sparks 1h8-13-01-2-03-4-00-0-04-7-00-0-00-0-01-5-01-4-0
Sparks 12-9-02-1-03-4-00-0-07-4-00-0-00-0-03-3-01-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sparks7-2-0 (77.8%)0-1-0 (0%)2-5-0 (28.6%)0-3-0 (0%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Lynx0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)4-2-0 (66.7%)2-0-0 (100%)3-2-0 (60%)3-2-0 (60%)0-2-0 (0%)