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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sun (-14.5) a 50.2-38.8% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 150.5 around 49.4-52.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sun have a 43.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 47.7% chance of going over the total.


Dream Situational Notes
Rest disadvantage

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Sun Situational Notes
Rest advantage
In season revenge
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

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Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/10CHIATL +7
CHI -7
154.5ATL---
7/7CONATL +14.5
CON -14.5
150.5ATL---
7/5DAL [ 85 ]ATL +4.5
DAL -4.5
162.5ATL [ 82 ]-3+1.5+4.5
7/2ATL [ 77 ]ATL +1
CHI -1
159CHI [ 85 ]-8-7+3
6/30NYL [ 81 ]ATL +15.5
NYL -15.5
168ATL [ 75 ]-6+9.5-12
6/28CON [ 74 ]ATL +9.5
CON -9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]+4+13.5+2
6/23ATL [ 75 ]ATL +9
NYL -9
165.5NYL [ 96 ]-21-12+5.5
6/21ATL [ 79 ]ATL +3
IND -3
163IND [ 91 ]-12-9+7
6/19MIN [ 68 ]ATL +9.5
MIN -9.5
162.5ATL [ 55 ]-13-3.5-39.5
6/16ATL [ 87 ]ATL -5
LAS +5
161LAS [ 74 ]+13+80

Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/10CONCON +2.5
NYL -2.5
159NYL---
7/7CONCON -14.5
ATL +14.5
150.5ATL---
7/4MIN [ 73 ]CON +3.5
MIN -3.5
150.5CON [ 78 ]+5+8.5+0.5
7/1PHO [ 72 ]CON -3
PHO +3
157.5CON [ 83 ]+11+8-2.5
6/28CON [ 74 ]CON -9.5
ATL +9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]-4-13.5+2
6/27WAS [ 91 ]CON -10.5
WAS +10.5
152CON [ 94 ]+3-7.5+33
6/23SEA [ 72 ]CON +1
SEA -1
154CON [ 61 ]-11-10-21
6/21LVA [ 85 ]CON +5
LVA -5
165.5CON [ 74 ]-11-6-6.5
6/18CON [ 79 ]CON -13
LAS +13
154LAS [ 70 ]+9-4-5
6/15DAL [ 67 ]CON -6.5
DAL +6.5
156.5CON [ 85 ]+18+11.5-4.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/18ATLCON -8
ATL +8
154.5CON--------
7/7CONCON -14.5
ATL +14.5
150.5ATL--------
6/28CON [ 74 ]CON -9.5
ATL +9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]-4-13.5+29395.5100.7-5.2152
6/2ATL [ 50 ]CON -2.5
ATL +2.5
159CON [ 69 ]+19+16.5-4091.390.765.725119
7/22ATL [ 78 ]CON +2
ATL -2
167.5CON [ 86 ]+8+10-3.598.4104.895.19.8164
7/20CON [ 82 ]CON -5
ATL +5
169ATL [ 71 ]+11+6-1697.9100.687.113.5153
6/15CON [ 88 ]CON -9
ATL +9
163.5ATL [ 92 ]-4-13+16.594.4101.3105.9-4.6163
6/11ATL [ 77 ]CON -3.5
ATL +3.5
163CON [ 89 ]+12+8.5+3105.2101.587.813.7166


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h4-14-11-3-00-6-02-2-11-3-00-0-00-0-01-7-02-2-0
Dream 7-122-21-53-21-30-00-02-61-3
Sun 1h11-7-27-1-10-0-14-3-00-3-00-1-01-0-03-3-15-2-0
Sun 16-48-10-17-01-21-00-15-25-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h6-12-11-3-00-6-02-3-03-0-10-0-00-0-03-4-12-2-0
Dream 8-11-01-3-01-5-03-2-03-1-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-2-0
Sun 1h9-11-05-4-01-0-03-4-00-3-00-1-00-1-04-3-02-5-0
Sun 9-11-04-5-00-1-04-3-01-2-00-1-00-1-03-4-03-4-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h9-9-13-1-03-3-03-2-00-3-10-0-00-0-03-4-11-3-0
Dream 10-8-11-2-13-3-04-1-02-2-00-0-00-0-04-3-12-2-0
Sun 1h5-15-02-7-00-1-03-4-00-3-01-0-00-1-01-6-01-6-0
Sun 9-10-13-5-11-0-04-3-01-2-01-0-01-0-03-4-03-3-1

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h9-10-02-2-02-4-03-2-02-2-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-2-0
Dream 6-13-01-3-00-6-03-2-02-2-00-0-00-0-03-5-01-3-0
Sun 1h5-14-12-7-00-0-13-4-00-3-01-0-00-1-02-4-11-6-0
Sun 10-10-03-6-00-1-06-1-01-2-01-0-00-1-04-3-02-5-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h9-9-13-0-13-3-03-2-00-4-00-0-00-0-03-4-12-2-0
Dream 10-9-02-2-03-3-04-1-01-3-00-0-00-0-04-4-02-2-0
Sun 1h6-14-00-9-00-1-04-3-02-1-01-0-00-1-03-4-01-6-0
Sun 8-12-03-6-01-0-04-3-00-3-01-0-01-0-02-5-03-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sun0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)0-2-0 (0%)4-3-0 (57.1%)2-3-0 (40%)2-2-0 (50%)
Dream1-0-0 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)1-3-0 (25%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)