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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Fever (+10.5) a 36.2-63.8% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 174.5 around 53.5-58.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Fever have a 42.2% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 53.5% chance of going over the total.


Liberty Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Fever Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Double digit, in season revenge
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Baller Systems
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Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/10CONNYL -2.5
CON +2.5
159NYL---
7/6INDNYL -10.5
IND +10.5
174.5NYL---
7/2NYL [ 76 ]NYL -6
MIN +6
169MIN [ 67 ]+9+3-26
6/30NYL [ 81 ]NYL -15.5
ATL +15.5
168ATL [ 75 ]+6-9.5-12
6/25NYL [ 89 ]NYL -6
MIN +6
164.5MIN [ 94 ]-5-11+18.5
6/23ATL [ 75 ]NYL -9
ATL +9
165.5NYL [ 96 ]+21+12+5.5
6/22NYL [ 98 ]NYL -14.5
LAS +14.5
169LAS [ 88 ]+10-4.5+17
6/20NYL [ 93 ]NYL -14
LAS +14
167LAS [ 80 ]+13-1+6
6/18PHO [ 99 ]NYL -5.5
PHO +5.5
171.5NYL [ 93 ]-6-11.5+20.5
6/15LVA [ 82 ]NYL +2.5
LVA -2.5
174NYL [ 90 ]+8+10.5-2

Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/10INDIND -7
WAS +7
167.5WAS---
7/6INDIND +10.5
NYL -10.5
174.5NYL---
7/2LVA [ 88 ]IND +13.5
LVA -13.5
179IND [ 69 ]-19-5.5-22
6/30PHO [ 82 ]IND +8
PHO -8
175IND [ 88 ]+6+14-5
6/27SEA [ 89 ]IND +9.5
SEA -9.5
167IND [ 77 ]-12-2.5-1
6/23CHI [ 88 ]IND +2
CHI -2
169.5IND [ 87 ]-1+1+5.5
6/21ATL [ 79 ]IND -3
ATL +3
163IND [ 91 ]+12+9+7
6/19IND [ 88 ]IND -5
WAS +5
167WAS [ 81 ]+7+2+2
6/16IND [ 91 ]IND -2.5
CHI +2.5
170CHI [ 83 ]+8+5.5+4
6/13IND [ 91 ]IND +2.5
ATL -2.5
164ATL [ 84 ]+7+9.5+11

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
7/6INDIND +10.5
NYL -10.5
174.5NYL--------
6/2NYL [ 104 ]IND +14.5
NYL -14.5
169IND [ 68 ]-36-21.5+395.285.7131.1-45.4172
5/18NYL [ 91 ]IND +14
NYL -14
169IND [ 80 ]-11+3+2100.195.9109.1-13.2171
5/16IND [ 66 ]IND +8
NYL -8
170NYL [ 102 ]-36-28-291.486.6133.9-47.3168
8/13IND [ 89 ]IND +10.5
NYL -10.5
166NYL [ 100 ]-11-0.5+2393.8113.9127.9-14.1189
7/23NYL [ 101 ]IND +13
NYL -13
171IND [ 83 ]-18-5+1392.4107.8131.2-23.4184
7/12IND [ 87 ]IND +10.5
NYL -10.5
169.5NYL [ 95 ]-8+2.5+12.510292.7101.2-8.5164.8
5/21NYL [ 90 ]IND +16.5
NYL -16.5
159.5IND [ 73 ]-17-0.5+3.597.489.9110.9-20.9163


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h13-5-38-2-20-0-04-3-11-0-01-0-11-0-14-2-04-1-2
Liberty 17-410-20-06-21-02-02-05-15-2
Fever 1h8-13-02-1-03-2-02-1-01-9-01-1-00-2-03-3-03-4-0
Fever 8-132-12-33-01-92-00-24-22-5

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h8-13-04-8-00-0-03-5-01-0-01-1-01-1-03-3-02-5-0
Liberty 8-13-02-10-00-0-05-3-01-0-01-1-01-1-02-4-04-3-0
Fever 1h7-12-21-1-13-2-01-1-12-8-01-1-01-1-02-3-13-3-1
Fever 11-10-02-1-03-2-02-1-04-6-02-0-00-2-03-3-04-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h10-11-07-5-00-0-03-5-00-1-01-1-02-0-03-3-04-3-0
Liberty 12-9-08-4-00-0-04-4-00-1-02-0-02-0-02-4-05-2-0
Fever 1h12-8-12-1-03-2-01-1-16-4-00-2-01-1-03-2-14-3-0
Fever 14-7-03-0-03-2-02-1-06-4-00-2-02-0-05-1-05-2-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h11-10-06-6-00-0-04-4-01-0-01-1-02-0-03-3-04-3-0
Liberty 12-9-06-6-00-0-05-3-01-0-02-0-02-0-03-3-05-2-0
Fever 1h6-13-22-1-02-2-11-1-11-9-00-2-00-2-02-3-13-4-0
Fever 12-9-02-1-03-2-02-1-05-5-00-2-01-1-04-2-04-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h12-8-18-4-00-0-04-3-10-1-01-0-11-1-03-3-04-2-1
Liberty 10-11-07-5-00-0-03-5-00-1-01-1-01-1-01-5-03-4-0
Fever 1h14-5-22-1-03-2-02-0-17-2-11-1-01-1-04-1-14-3-0
Fever 12-8-11-1-14-1-01-2-06-4-00-2-02-0-04-2-04-2-1


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Fever1-4-0 (20%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-2-0 (60%)3-0-0 (100%)3-2-0 (60%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)2-3-0 (40%)3-0-0 (100%)1-10-0 (9.1%)