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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mercury (+3) a 35.9-61.9% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 157.5 around 54.2-54.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mercury have a 59.5% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 62% chance of going over the total.


Sun Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Mercury Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/4MINCON +3.5
MIN -3.5
150.5CON---
7/1PHOCON -3
PHO +3
157.5CON---
6/28CON [ 74 ]CON -9.5
ATL +9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]-4-13.5+2
6/27WAS [ 91 ]CON -10.5
WAS +10.5
152CON [ 94 ]+3-7.5+33
6/23SEA [ 72 ]CON +1
SEA -1
154CON [ 61 ]-11-10-21
6/21LVA [ 85 ]CON +5
LVA -5
165.5CON [ 74 ]-11-6-6.5
6/18CON [ 79 ]CON -13
LAS +13
154LAS [ 70 ]+9-4-5
6/15DAL [ 67 ]CON -6.5
DAL +6.5
156.5CON [ 85 ]+18+11.5-4.5
6/12CHI [ 75 ]CON -7.5
CHI +7.5
153.5CON [ 83 ]+8+0.5+4.5
6/10CON [ 89 ]CON -10
IND +10
159.5IND [ 72 ]+17+7+1.5

Mercury Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/3DALPHO -5
DAL +5
171.5PHO---
7/1PHOPHO +3
CON -3
157.5CON---
6/30PHO [ 82 ]PHO -8
IND +8
175IND [ 88 ]-6-14-5
6/28PHO [ 92 ]PHO -10
LAS +10
168.5LAS [ 78 ]+14+4+1.5
6/22MIN [ 73 ]PHO +6
MIN -6
167.5PHO [ 60 ]-13-7-34.5
6/18PHO [ 99 ]PHO +5.5
NYL -5.5
171.5NYL [ 93 ]+6+11.5+20.5
6/16PHO [ 87 ]PHO +3
SEA -3
166SEA [ 78 ]+9+12-1
6/13PHO [ 99 ]PHO +6
LVA -6
169.5LVA [ 103 ]-4+2+32.5
6/9DAL [ 90 ]PHO -1
DAL +1
163.5PHO [ 97 ]+7+6+23.5
6/7PHO [ 81 ]PHO +4.5
MIN -4.5
161.5MIN [ 80 ]+1+5.5-0.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/13PHOPHO +9.5
CON -9.5
155.5CON--------
7/14CONPHO +7.5
CON -7.5
158.5PHO--------
7/1PHOPHO +3
CON -3
157.5CON--------
5/28CON [ 70 ]PHO +8
CON -8
168PHO [ 47 ]-23-15-5193.160.690.2-29.6117
8/31CON [ 84 ]PHO +15
CON -15
154.5PHO [ 74 ]-10+5+3.582.5107.6122.1-14.5158
8/10PHO [ 90 ]PHO +8
CON -8
159.5CON [ 84 ]+6+14+14.597.3111103.67.4174
7/18PHO [ 72 ]PHO +7.5
CON -7.5
162.5CON [ 66 ]+6+13.5-24.586.999.491.18.3138


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h10-6-27-1-10-0-13-3-00-2-00-1-01-0-02-2-15-2-0
Sun 14-48-10-16-00-21-00-13-25-2
Mercury 1h8-10-03-2-04-1-01-0-00-7-01-1-00-1-02-2-03-3-0
Mercury 9-93-24-11-01-60-20-12-22-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h8-10-05-4-01-0-02-4-00-2-00-1-00-1-03-2-02-5-0
Sun 7-11-04-5-00-1-03-3-00-2-00-1-00-1-01-4-03-4-0
Mercury 1h11-7-02-3-05-0-01-0-03-4-01-1-01-0-03-1-04-2-0
Mercury 11-7-02-3-05-0-01-0-03-4-00-2-01-0-03-1-03-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h5-13-02-7-00-1-03-3-00-2-01-0-00-1-01-4-01-6-0
Sun 8-9-13-5-11-0-04-2-00-2-01-0-01-0-02-3-03-3-1
Mercury 1h7-11-02-3-02-3-00-1-03-4-00-2-01-0-01-3-03-3-0
Mercury 9-9-03-2-03-2-01-0-02-5-00-2-00-1-02-2-02-4-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h4-13-12-7-00-0-12-4-00-2-01-0-00-1-01-3-11-6-0
Sun 8-10-03-6-00-1-05-1-00-2-01-0-00-1-02-3-02-5-0
Mercury 1h8-10-01-4-04-1-00-1-03-4-01-1-01-0-02-2-03-3-0
Mercury 11-7-03-2-05-0-01-0-02-5-00-2-00-1-03-1-03-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h5-13-00-9-00-1-04-2-01-1-01-0-00-1-02-3-01-6-0
Sun 8-10-03-6-01-0-04-2-00-2-01-0-01-0-02-3-03-4-0
Mercury 1h6-12-02-3-02-3-00-1-02-5-00-2-00-1-01-3-03-3-0
Mercury 7-11-03-2-02-3-01-0-01-6-01-1-00-1-01-3-03-3-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mercury3-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)4-3-0 (57.1%)2-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-1-0 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)
Sun0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-2-0 (0%)3-3-0 (50%)2-3-0 (40%)2-2-0 (50%)