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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Liberty (-6) a 40.6-39.9% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 169 around 48.7-51.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Liberty have a 43.8% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 54.1% chance of going over the total.


Lynx Situational Notes
Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road

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Liberty Situational Notes
In season revenge

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Lynx Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/4MINMIN -3.5
CON +3.5
150.5CON---
7/2NYLMIN +6
NYL -6
169MIN---
6/30CHI [ 62 ]MIN -7
CHI +7
163.5MIN [ 70 ]+8+1-31.5
6/27DAL [ 94 ]MIN -9
DAL +9
164MIN [ 88 ]-6-15+18
6/25NYL [ 89 ]MIN +6
NYL -6
164.5MIN [ 94 ]+5+11+18.5
6/22MIN [ 73 ]MIN -6
PHO +6
167.5PHO [ 60 ]+13+7-34.5
6/19MIN [ 68 ]MIN -9.5
ATL +9.5
162.5ATL [ 55 ]+13+3.5-39.5
6/17MIN [ 90 ]MIN -14.5
DAL +14.5
161.5DAL [ 78 ]+12-2.5+6.5
6/14MIN [ 81 ]MIN -12
LAS +12
159.5LAS [ 76 ]+5-7-2.5
6/11LVA [ 86 ]MIN +7
LVA -7
166MIN [ 100 ]+14+21+20

Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/6INDNYL -10.5
IND +10.5
174.5NYL---
7/2NYLNYL -6
MIN +6
169MIN---
6/30NYL [ 81 ]NYL -15.5
ATL +15.5
168ATL [ 75 ]+6-9.5-12
6/25NYL [ 89 ]NYL -6
MIN +6
164.5MIN [ 94 ]-5-11+18.5
6/23ATL [ 75 ]NYL -9
ATL +9
165.5NYL [ 96 ]+21+12+5.5
6/22NYL [ 98 ]NYL -14.5
LAS +14.5
169LAS [ 88 ]+10-4.5+17
6/20NYL [ 93 ]NYL -14
LAS +14
167LAS [ 80 ]+13-1+6
6/18PHO [ 99 ]NYL -5.5
PHO +5.5
171.5NYL [ 93 ]-6-11.5+20.5
6/15LVA [ 82 ]NYL +2.5
LVA -2.5
174NYL [ 90 ]+8+10.5-2
6/9NYL [ 93 ]NYL -14
WAS +14
156WAS [ 88 ]+5-9+25

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/15NYLNYL -5.5
MIN +5.5
160MIN--------
7/2NYLNYL -6
MIN +6
169MIN--------
6/25NYL [ 89 ]NYL -6
MIN +6
164.5MIN [ 94 ]-5-11+18.595.4111.9118.2-6.3183
5/25MIN [ 84 ]NYL -6.5
MIN +6.5
167.5NYL [ 67 ]-17-23.5-16.591.188.3110.6-22.4151
8/26MIN [ 76 ]NYL -9
MIN +9
166NYL [ 111 ]+35+26+2196.8137.594.243.4187
8/4MIN [ 66 ]NYL -9.5
MIN +9.5
169.5NYL [ 76 ]+10+0.5-27.583.5109.294.914.4142
7/28NYL [ 83 ]NYL -14
MIN +14
166.5MIN [ 88 ]-5-19+4.595.2104.6110.9-6.3171


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h12-7-05-2-02-1-02-2-03-2-01-0-01-0-01-2-04-2-0
Lynx 15-47-02-12-24-11-01-02-13-3
Liberty 1h13-5-28-2-10-0-04-3-11-0-01-0-11-0-14-2-04-1-2
Liberty 16-49-20-06-21-02-02-05-15-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h10-8-12-4-12-1-01-3-05-0-01-0-01-0-02-1-02-3-1
Lynx 14-5-05-2-02-1-02-2-05-0-01-0-01-0-02-1-03-3-0
Liberty 1h8-12-04-7-00-0-03-5-01-0-01-1-01-1-03-3-02-5-0
Liberty 7-13-01-10-00-0-05-3-01-0-01-1-01-1-02-4-04-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h7-11-12-4-10-3-01-3-04-1-00-1-01-0-01-1-12-4-0
Lynx 8-10-13-4-01-2-01-3-03-1-10-1-01-0-02-0-12-4-0
Liberty 1h10-10-07-4-00-0-03-5-00-1-01-1-02-0-03-3-04-3-0
Liberty 12-8-08-3-00-0-04-4-00-1-02-0-02-0-02-4-05-2-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h9-10-01-6-02-1-02-2-04-1-01-0-01-0-01-2-02-4-0
Lynx 13-6-04-3-02-1-02-2-05-0-01-0-01-0-03-0-02-4-0
Liberty 1h11-9-06-5-00-0-04-4-01-0-01-1-02-0-03-3-04-3-0
Liberty 12-8-06-5-00-0-05-3-01-0-02-0-02-0-03-3-05-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h7-11-13-4-00-3-01-3-03-1-10-1-01-0-02-1-02-4-0
Lynx 6-13-02-5-01-2-02-2-01-4-00-1-00-1-02-1-02-4-0
Liberty 1h11-8-17-4-00-0-04-3-10-1-01-0-11-1-03-3-04-2-1
Liberty 10-10-07-4-00-0-03-5-00-1-01-1-01-1-01-5-03-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)1-3-0 (25%)3-0-0 (100%)1-10-0 (9.1%)
Lynx0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)4-1-0 (80%)2-0-0 (100%)3-1-0 (75%)3-1-0 (75%)0-2-0 (0%)