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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Liberty (-15.5) a 52.7-53.9% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 168 around 48.1-48.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Liberty have a 37% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 51.3% chance of going over the total.


Dream Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge
Rest disadvantage
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Liberty Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Rest advantage

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Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/2ATLATL +1
CHI -1
159CHI---
6/30NYLATL +15.5
NYL -15.5
168ATL---
6/28CON [ 74 ]ATL +9.5
CON -9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]+4+13.5+2
6/23ATL [ 75 ]ATL +9
NYL -9
165.5NYL [ 96 ]-21-12+5.5
6/21ATL [ 79 ]ATL +3
IND -3
163IND [ 91 ]-12-9+7
6/19MIN [ 68 ]ATL +9.5
MIN -9.5
162.5ATL [ 55 ]-13-3.5-39.5
6/16ATL [ 87 ]ATL -5
LAS +5
161LAS [ 74 ]+13+80
6/13IND [ 91 ]ATL -2.5
IND +2.5
164ATL [ 84 ]-7-9.5+11
6/11ATL [ 68 ]ATL -6
WAS +6
156.5WAS [ 87 ]-19-25-1.5
6/8CHI [ 80 ]ATL -1
CHI +1
158.5ATL [ 89 ]+9+8+10.5

Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/2NYLNYL -6
MIN +6
169MIN---
6/30NYLNYL -15.5
ATL +15.5
168ATL---
6/25NYL [ 89 ]NYL -6
MIN +6
164.5MIN [ 94 ]-5-11+18.5
6/23ATL [ 75 ]NYL -9
ATL +9
165.5NYL [ 96 ]+21+12+5.5
6/22NYL [ 98 ]NYL -14.5
LAS +14.5
169LAS [ 88 ]+10-4.5+17
6/20NYL [ 93 ]NYL -14
LAS +14
167LAS [ 80 ]+13-1+6
6/18PHO [ 99 ]NYL -5.5
PHO +5.5
171.5NYL [ 93 ]-6-11.5+20.5
6/15LVA [ 82 ]NYL +2.5
LVA -2.5
174NYL [ 90 ]+8+10.5-2
6/9NYL [ 93 ]NYL -14
WAS +14
156WAS [ 88 ]+5-9+25
6/8CON [ 75 ]NYL -2
CON +2
154NYL [ 82 ]+7+5+3

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/26ATL-
-		-NYL--------
9/24NYLNYL -12.5
ATL +12.5
156.5ATL--------
9/22NYLNYL -13
ATL +13
156ATL--------
9/19NYLNYL -5.5
ATL +5.5
157ATL--------
6/30NYLNYL -15.5
ATL +15.5
168ATL--------
6/23ATL [ 75 ]NYL -9
ATL +9
165.5NYL [ 96 ]+21+12+5.596.3119.693.426.2171
6/6ATL [ 61 ]NYL -6.5
ATL +6.5
163.5NYL [ 78 ]+17+10.5-24.591.9101.879.622.2139
7/27NYL [ 95 ]NYL -8.5
ATL +8.5
175ATL [ 84 ]+11+2.5+497.3117.2103.613.6179
6/23ATL [ 80 ]NYL -7.5
ATL +7.5
172.5NYL [ 110 ]+30+22.5+17.5109.4120.787.832.9190
6/13NYL [ 79 ]NYL -10
ATL +10
171ATL [ 86 ]-7-17-693.7101.2110.2-9165
6/9ATL [ 83 ]NYL -6
ATL +6
163.5NYL [ 106 ]+23+17+25.5103.1123.496.626.8189


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h3-12-11-3-00-5-02-2-10-2-00-0-00-0-01-6-01-2-0
Dream 7-92-21-43-21-10-00-02-51-2
Liberty 1h13-4-28-1-10-0-04-3-11-0-01-0-11-0-14-1-04-1-2
Liberty 15-48-20-06-21-02-02-04-15-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h4-11-11-3-00-5-02-3-01-0-10-0-00-0-02-4-11-2-0
Dream 6-10-01-3-01-4-03-2-01-1-00-0-00-0-02-5-01-2-0
Liberty 1h8-11-04-6-00-0-03-5-01-0-01-1-01-1-03-2-02-5-0
Liberty 7-12-01-9-00-0-05-3-01-0-01-1-01-1-02-3-04-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h8-8-03-1-02-3-03-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-03-4-01-2-0
Dream 8-7-11-2-12-3-04-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-03-3-12-1-0
Liberty 1h10-9-07-3-00-0-03-5-00-1-01-1-02-0-03-2-04-3-0
Liberty 12-7-08-2-00-0-04-4-00-1-02-0-02-0-02-3-05-2-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h6-10-02-2-01-4-03-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-02-5-01-2-0
Dream 5-11-01-3-00-5-03-2-01-1-00-0-00-0-02-5-01-2-0
Liberty 1h11-8-06-4-00-0-04-4-01-0-01-1-02-0-03-2-04-3-0
Liberty 12-7-06-4-00-0-05-3-01-0-02-0-02-0-03-2-05-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h8-7-13-0-12-3-03-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-03-3-12-1-0
Dream 8-8-02-2-02-3-04-1-00-2-00-0-00-0-03-4-02-1-0
Liberty 1h10-8-16-4-00-0-04-3-10-1-01-0-11-1-02-3-04-2-1
Liberty 10-9-07-3-00-0-03-5-00-1-01-1-01-1-01-4-03-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)1-3-0 (25%)3-0-0 (100%)1-9-0 (10%)
Dream0-0-0 (-)2-2-0 (50%)0-3-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)