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6/28 | 6/30LVA@WAS DAL@SEA

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Aces @ Mystics [ +13.5 / 174.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

June 29, 2024
Mystics | 14-26 (35%)
Aces | 28-13 (68.3%)

Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mystics (+13.5) a 69.7-89.8% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 174.5 around 49.4-52.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mystics have a 73.8% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 52.4% chance of going over the total.

Aces Situational Notes

Mystics Situational Notes
Coming off an overtime game

Aces Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
7/2	LVA	LVA -13.5 IND +13.5	179	IND	-	-	-
6/29	WAS	LVA -13.5 WAS +13.5	174.5	LVA	-	-	-
6/27	CHI [ 83 ]	LVA -10.5 CHI +10.5	173	LVA [ 95 ]	+12	+1.5	+5
6/21	LVA [ 85 ]	LVA -5 CON +5	165.5	CON [ 74 ]	+11	+6	-6.5
6/19	LVA [ 94 ]	LVA -6.5 SEA +6.5	172.5	SEA [ 83 ]	+11	+4.5	+4.5
6/15	LVA [ 82 ]	LVA -2.5 NYL +2.5	174	NYL [ 90 ]	-8	-10.5	-2
6/13	PHO [ 99 ]	LVA -6 PHO +6	169.5	LVA [ 103 ]	+4	-2	+32.5
6/11	LVA [ 86 ]	LVA -7 MIN +7	166	MIN [ 100 ]	-14	-21	+20
6/9	LAS [ 96 ]	LVA -10 LAS +10	162	LVA [ 92 ]	-4	-14	+26
6/7	LVA [ 65 ]	LVA -8 SEA +8	166.5	SEA [ 78 ]	-13	-21	-23.5

Mystics Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
7/2	LAS	WAS +1.5 LAS -1.5	162.5	WAS	-	-	-
6/29	WAS	WAS +13.5 LVA -13.5	174.5	LVA	-	-	-
6/27	WAS [ 91 ]	WAS +10.5 CON -10.5	152	CON [ 94 ]	-3	+7.5	+33
6/23	WAS [ 92 ]	WAS -1 DAL +1	163	DAL [ 84 ]	+8	+7	+13
6/22	WAS [ 97 ]	WAS +3 DAL -3	159.5	DAL [ 69 ]	+28	+31	+6.5
6/19	IND [ 88 ]	WAS +5 IND -5	167	WAS [ 81 ]	-7	-2	+2
6/14	WAS [ 83 ]	WAS +2.5 CHI -2.5	158.5	CHI [ 81 ]	+2	+4.5	+5.5
6/11	ATL [ 68 ]	WAS +6 ATL -6	156.5	WAS [ 87 ]	+19	+25	-1.5
6/9	NYL [ 93 ]	WAS +14 NYL -14	156	WAS [ 88 ]	-5	+9	+25
6/7	WAS [ 83 ]	WAS +4.5 IND -4.5	160.5	IND [ 85 ]	-2	+2.5	+7.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
7/14	WAS	WAS +12 LVA -12	171.5	LVA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7/4	LVA	WAS +15.5 LVA -15.5	172.5	WAS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6/29	WAS	WAS +13.5 LVA -13.5	174.5	LVA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8/31	LVA [ 84 ]	WAS +10.5 LVA -10.5	168	WAS [ 75 ]	-9	+1.5	-9	90.6	99.3	111.2	-11.9	159
8/26	WAS [ 78 ]	WAS +10 LVA -10	171	LVA [ 62 ]	+16	+26	-31	96.9	96.6	76.8	19.8	140
8/11	LVA [ 113 ]	WAS +17.5 LVA -17.5	169.5	WAS [ 89 ]	-24	-6.5	+32.5	104	102.7	130.4	-27.7	202

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

Aces (last 15 games)		Mystics (last 18 games)
0.69 (4)	Win Percentage	0.36 (10)
40 (8)	ATS Win%	66.67 (2)
60 (5)	OU%	66.67 (2)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
107.39 (2)	Offensive Rating	98.49 (10)
99.88 (5)	Defensive Rating	101.32 (6)
96.76 (3)	Pace	96.32 (5)
1.77 (1)	A/TO Ratio	1.33 (9)

Four Factors

Aces (last 15 games)		Mystics (last 18 games)
52.46 (3)	EFG%	50.72 (4)
49.02 (6)	EFG% Allowed	49.83 (9)
27.14 (5)	FT Rate	22.01 (12)
25.12 (3)	FT Rate Allowed	30.24 (11)
16.82 (12)	OReb%	20.42 (11)
19.87 (1)	OReb% Allowed	24.69 (8)
14.45 (1)	TO Rate	20.16 (10)
16.74 (10)	TO Rate Forced	19.93 (5)

Scoring

Aces (last 15 games)		Mystics (last 18 games)
86.87 (2)	PPG	79.56 (9)
80.79 (6)	PPG Allowed	81.85 (8)
16.54 (5)	Pts off TO	15.85 (6)
12.46 (1)	Pts off TO Allowed	17.92 (10)
9.79 (11)	2nd Chance Pts	8.54 (12)
10.07 (4)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	10.23 (5)
10.29 (5)	Fast Break Pts	8.03 (12)
9.82 (5)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	9.26 (4)

Inside the Arc

Aces (last 15 games)		Mystics (last 18 games)
31.69 (7)	Paint Attempts	30.08 (11)
33.79 (4)	Paint Attempts Allowed	31.33 (2)
54.37 (2)	Paint FG%	50.38 (10)
50.38 (4)	Paint FG% Allowed	54.17 (10)
10.05 (8)	Mid-Range Attempts	10.44 (7)
14.85 (10)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	13.36 (8)
0.42 (1)	Mid-Range FG%	0.4 (3)
0.37 (8)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.38 (9)

Three Point Shooting

Aces (last 15 games)		Mystics (last 18 games)
4.44 (2)	Corner 3 Attempts	3.13 (5)
3.9 (1)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	5.92 (10)
35.84 (5)	Corner 3 FG%	41.8 (3)
42.76 (11)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	35.06 (5)
21.85 (5)	ATB3 Attempts	23.41 (3)
16.33 (10)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	15.36 (7)
36.03 (3)	ATB3 FG%	35.93 (4)
35.01 (11)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	32.55 (5)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Aces 1h	12-3-0	6-3-0	0-0-0	6-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	6-0-0	2-2-0
Aces	9-6	5-4	0-0	4-2	0-0	0-0	0-0	6-0	2-2
Mystics 1h	8-8-2	0-1-0	5-3-0	0-0-0	3-4-2	2-0-0	0-2-0	3-2-1	2-2-0
Mystics	4-14	1-0	2-6	0-0	1-8	1-1	1-1	2-4	1-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Aces 1h	6-9-0	2-7-0	0-0-0	4-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	4-2-0	1-3-0
Aces	6-9-0	3-6-0	0-0-0	3-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	5-1-0	1-3-0
Mystics 1h	12-4-2	0-1-0	5-2-1	0-0-0	7-1-1	2-0-0	0-1-1	4-1-1	2-1-1
Mystics	12-6-0	1-0-0	5-3-0	0-0-0	6-3-0	1-1-0	2-0-0	3-3-0	3-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Aces 1h	5-10-0	2-7-0	0-0-0	3-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-5-0	1-3-0
Aces	9-6-0	5-4-0	0-0-0	4-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	5-1-0	1-3-0
Mystics 1h	8-9-1	1-0-0	3-4-1	0-0-0	4-5-0	1-1-0	1-0-1	4-2-0	1-2-1
Mystics	12-6-0	1-0-0	5-3-0	0-0-0	6-3-0	1-1-0	2-0-0	4-2-0	2-2-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Aces 1h	5-10-0	3-6-0	0-0-0	2-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	2-4-0	2-2-0
Aces	6-9-0	2-7-0	0-0-0	4-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	4-2-0	1-3-0
Mystics 1h	10-6-2	1-0-0	5-2-1	0-0-0	4-4-1	2-0-0	1-0-1	4-2-0	1-1-2
Mystics	11-6-1	1-0-0	5-3-0	0-0-0	5-3-1	1-1-0	2-0-0	3-2-1	2-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Aces 1h	7-8-0	4-5-0	0-0-0	3-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-5-0	2-2-0
Aces	10-4-1	6-2-1	0-0-0	4-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	4-1-1	2-2-0
Mystics 1h	6-11-1	1-0-0	1-6-1	0-0-0	4-5-0	0-2-0	1-0-1	2-4-0	1-2-1
Mystics	10-8-0	1-0-0	4-4-0	0-0-0	5-4-0	0-2-0	2-0-0	3-3-0	2-2-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Mystics	4-1-0 (80%)	1-1-0 (50%)	6-4-0 (60%)	1-0-0 (100%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)
Aces	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	3-2-0 (60%)	1-3-0 (25%)	2-4-0 (33.3%)