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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sky (-6) a 45.8-52.3% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 163 around 51.7-52% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sky have a 30.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 52.9% chance of going over the total.


Wings Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge
Rest disadvantage

Sky Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Wings Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/22WASDAL -3
WAS +3
159.5DAL---
6/20CHIDAL +6
CHI -6
163DAL---
6/17MIN [ 90 ]DAL +14.5
MIN -14.5
161.5DAL [ 78 ]-12+2.5+6.5
6/15DAL [ 67 ]DAL +6.5
CON -6.5
156.5CON [ 85 ]-18-11.5-4.5
6/13DAL [ 84 ]DAL +6.5
SEA -6.5
160.5SEA [ 92 ]-8-1.5+15.5
6/9DAL [ 90 ]DAL +1
PHO -1
163.5PHO [ 97 ]-7-6+23.5
6/7LAS [ 81 ]DAL -4
LAS +4
160.5DAL [ 72 ]-9-13-7.5
6/5DAL [ 81 ]DAL +9
LVA -9
167.5LVA [ 95 ]-14-5+8.5
6/2MIN [ 87 ]DAL +6.5
MIN -6.5
162.5DAL [ 76 ]-11-4.5+0.5
5/31CON [ 74 ]DAL +8.5
CON -8.5
161.5DAL [ 72 ]-2+6.5-15.5

Sky Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/23CHICHI -2
IND +2
169.5IND---
6/20CHICHI -6
DAL +6
163DAL---
6/16IND [ 91 ]CHI +2.5
IND -2.5
170CHI [ 83 ]-8-5.5+4
6/14WAS [ 83 ]CHI -2.5
WAS +2.5
158.5CHI [ 81 ]-2-4.5+5.5
6/12CHI [ 75 ]CHI +7.5
CON -7.5
153.5CON [ 83 ]-8-0.5+4.5
6/8CHI [ 80 ]CHI +1
ATL -1
158.5ATL [ 89 ]-9-8+10.5
6/6WAS [ 71 ]CHI -3
WAS +3
156CHI [ 79 ]+8+5-6
6/4CHI [ 75 ]CHI +8
NYL -8
165.5NYL [ 88 ]-13-5-2.5
6/1IND [ 71 ]CHI -1.5
IND +1.5
167.5CHI [ 70 ]-1-2.5-26.5
5/30CHI [ 83 ]CHI -4.5
LAS +4.5
160LAS [ 73 ]+10+5.5-4

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/8CHICHI +4
DAL -4
172DAL--------
6/20CHICHI -6
DAL +6
163DAL--------
5/18DAL [ 74 ]CHI +5
DAL -5
164CHI [ 83 ]+9+14-796.1103.692.411.2157
5/15DAL [ 87 ]CHI +8
DAL -8
161.5CHI [ 79 ]-80+4.595.998.9108.9-10166
8/6DAL [ 96 ]CHI +9
DAL -9
166CHI [ 104 ]+8+17+34100.6124.1114.59.5200
8/4DAL [ 89 ]CHI +10
DAL -10
164.5CHI [ 104 ]+15+25+28.597.8127.6109.218.4193
5/28CHI [ 94 ]CHI -2
DAL +2
161.5DAL [ 88 ]+6+4+20.5100.5112.21057.2182


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h5-8-01-1-00-4-01-0-03-3-01-0-01-0-01-2-01-3-0
Wings 3-101-10-40-12-41-01-01-21-3
Sky 1h4-9-01-0-01-4-00-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-01-2-00-2-0
Sky 4-91-00-51-22-20-00-01-20-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h7-6-01-1-00-4-01-0-05-1-01-0-01-0-01-2-02-2-0
Wings 5-7-10-1-10-4-00-1-05-1-01-0-01-0-02-1-02-2-0
Sky 1h6-6-11-0-03-1-10-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-03-0-00-2-0
Sky 5-7-11-0-01-4-01-2-02-1-10-0-00-0-01-2-00-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h6-5-21-1-02-2-00-0-13-2-11-0-01-0-02-1-02-1-1
Wings 8-5-01-1-03-1-00-1-04-2-01-0-01-0-02-1-03-1-0
Sky 1h6-7-00-1-03-2-01-2-02-2-00-0-00-0-01-2-02-0-0
Sky 7-6-00-1-03-2-01-2-03-1-00-0-00-0-02-1-02-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h7-6-00-2-02-2-01-0-04-2-01-0-01-0-02-1-03-1-0
Wings 7-6-01-1-03-1-00-1-03-3-01-0-01-0-02-1-03-1-0
Sky 1h7-6-01-0-03-2-00-3-03-1-00-0-00-0-03-0-01-1-0
Sky 8-5-01-0-03-2-01-2-03-1-00-0-00-0-02-1-01-1-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h4-9-01-1-03-1-00-1-00-6-00-1-00-1-01-2-02-2-0
Wings 10-2-12-0-04-0-01-0-03-2-11-0-00-0-12-1-03-0-1
Sky 1h5-8-00-1-02-3-02-1-01-3-00-0-00-0-01-2-02-0-0
Sky 7-6-00-1-04-1-01-2-02-2-00-0-00-0-02-1-02-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sky1-0-0 (100%)0-2-1 (0%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-3-0 (0%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Wings1-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)2-3-0 (40%)1-1-0 (50%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-1 (-)0-0-0 (-)