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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (+3) a 71.7-47.7% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 163 around 50.9-50% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 71.3% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 45.7% chance of going over the total.


Fever Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Dream Situational Notes
In season revenge

Baller Systems
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Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/23CHIIND +2
CHI -2
169.5IND---
6/21ATLIND -3
ATL +3
163IND---
6/19IND [ 88 ]IND -5
WAS +5
167WAS [ 81 ]+7+2+2
6/16IND [ 91 ]IND -2.5
CHI +2.5
170CHI [ 83 ]+8+5.5+4
6/13IND [ 91 ]IND +2.5
ATL -2.5
164ATL [ 84 ]+7+9.5+11
6/10CON [ 89 ]IND +10
CON -10
159.5IND [ 72 ]-17-7+1.5
6/7WAS [ 83 ]IND -4.5
WAS +4.5
160.5IND [ 85 ]+2-2.5+7.5
6/2NYL [ 104 ]IND +14.5
NYL -14.5
169IND [ 68 ]-36-21.5+3
6/1IND [ 71 ]IND +1.5
CHI -1.5
167.5CHI [ 70 ]+1+2.5-26.5
5/30IND [ 88 ]IND +5.5
SEA -5.5
166.5SEA [ 103 ]-15-9.5+24.5

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/23ATLATL +9
NYL -9
165.5NYL---
6/21ATLATL +3
IND -3
163IND---
6/19MIN [ 68 ]ATL +9.5
MIN -9.5
162.5ATL [ 55 ]-13-3.5-39.5
6/16ATL [ 87 ]ATL -5
LAS +5
161LAS [ 74 ]+13+80
6/13IND [ 91 ]ATL -2.5
IND +2.5
164ATL [ 84 ]-7-9.5+11
6/11ATL [ 68 ]ATL -6
WAS +6
156.5WAS [ 87 ]-19-25-1.5
6/8CHI [ 80 ]ATL -1
CHI +1
158.5ATL [ 89 ]+9+8+10.5
6/6ATL [ 61 ]ATL +6.5
NYL -6.5
163.5NYL [ 78 ]-17-10.5-24.5
6/2ATL [ 50 ]ATL +2.5
CON -2.5
159CON [ 69 ]-19-16.5-40
5/31ATL [ 78 ]ATL +8.5
LVA -8.5
172LVA [ 74 ]+4+12.5-20

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/8INDATL +5.5
IND -5.5
170ATL--------
8/26ATLATL +1.5
IND -1.5
167IND--------
6/21ATLATL +3
IND -3
163IND--------
6/13IND [ 91 ]ATL -2.5
IND +2.5
164ATL [ 84 ]-7-9.5+1192.1109.5118.6-9.1175
8/27IND [ 83 ]ATL -1
IND +1
164.5ATL [ 80 ]-3-4-1.594.1102.1105.9-3.8163
8/6ATL [ 82 ]ATL -8
IND +8
167IND [ 73 ]+9+1-1291.4107.795.911.8155
6/18IND [ 94 ]ATL -1
IND +1
165.5ATL [ 100 ]+6+5+28.5105.3113.9107.16.8194
5/28ATL [ 87 ]ATL -7
IND +7
160.5IND [ 90 ]-3-10+16.595.4109.4113.2-3.8177



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h6-10-02-1-03-2-01-1-00-6-01-1-00-2-03-2-02-3-0
Fever 6-102-12-32-00-62-00-23-22-3
Dream 1h3-9-11-3-00-3-02-2-10-1-00-0-00-0-01-4-01-2-0
Dream 6-72-21-23-20-10-00-01-41-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h5-9-21-1-13-2-00-1-11-5-01-1-01-1-02-2-12-2-1
Fever 8-8-02-1-03-2-01-1-02-4-02-0-00-2-02-3-03-2-0
Dream 1h3-9-11-3-00-3-02-3-00-0-10-0-00-0-01-3-11-2-0
Dream 5-8-01-3-01-2-03-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-4-01-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h9-6-12-1-03-2-00-1-14-2-00-2-01-1-03-1-13-2-0
Fever 12-4-03-0-03-2-01-1-05-1-00-2-02-0-05-0-04-1-0
Dream 1h6-7-03-1-00-3-03-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-02-3-01-2-0
Dream 5-7-11-2-10-3-04-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-3-12-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h4-10-22-1-02-2-10-1-10-6-00-2-00-2-02-2-12-3-0
Fever 9-7-02-1-03-2-01-1-03-3-00-2-01-1-03-2-03-2-0
Dream 1h5-8-02-2-00-3-03-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-02-3-01-2-0
Dream 4-9-01-3-00-3-03-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-4-01-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h10-4-22-1-03-2-01-0-14-1-11-1-01-1-03-1-13-2-0
Fever 10-5-11-1-14-1-01-1-04-2-00-2-02-0-04-1-03-1-1
Dream 1h6-6-13-0-10-3-03-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-02-2-12-1-0
Dream 6-7-02-2-00-3-04-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-02-3-02-1-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)0-2-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Fever1-3-0 (25%)0-1-0 (0%)3-2-0 (60%)2-0-0 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)