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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Fever (-5) a 27.9-27.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 167 around 48.7-50% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Fever have a 39.7% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 53.5% chance of going over the total.


Mystics Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge
Rest advantage
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Fever Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Mystics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/22WASWAS +3
DAL -3
159.5DAL---
6/19INDWAS +5
IND -5
167WAS---
6/14WAS [ 83 ]WAS +2.5
CHI -2.5
158.5CHI [ 81 ]+2+4.5+5.5
6/11ATL [ 68 ]WAS +6
ATL -6
156.5WAS [ 87 ]+19+25-1.5
6/9NYL [ 93 ]WAS +14
NYL -14
156WAS [ 88 ]-5+9+25
6/7WAS [ 83 ]WAS +4.5
IND -4.5
160.5IND [ 85 ]-2+2.5+7.5
6/6WAS [ 71 ]WAS +3
CHI -3
156CHI [ 79 ]-8-5-6
6/4CON [ 76 ]WAS +13
CON -13
152WAS [ 59 ]-17-4-17
5/31NYL [ 90 ]WAS +13
NYL -13
159.5WAS [ 79 ]-11+2+9.5
5/29WAS [ 67 ]WAS +3
ATL -3
163.5ATL [ 73 ]-6-3-23.5

Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/21ATLIND -3
ATL +3
163IND---
6/19INDIND -5
WAS +5
167WAS---
6/16IND [ 91 ]IND -2.5
CHI +2.5
170CHI [ 83 ]+8+5.5+4
6/13IND [ 91 ]IND +2.5
ATL -2.5
164ATL [ 84 ]+7+9.5+11
6/10CON [ 89 ]IND +10
CON -10
159.5IND [ 72 ]-17-7+1.5
6/7WAS [ 83 ]IND -4.5
WAS +4.5
160.5IND [ 85 ]+2-2.5+7.5
6/2NYL [ 104 ]IND +14.5
NYL -14.5
169IND [ 68 ]-36-21.5+3
6/1IND [ 71 ]IND +1.5
CHI -1.5
167.5CHI [ 70 ]+1+2.5-26.5
5/30IND [ 88 ]IND +5.5
SEA -5.5
166.5SEA [ 103 ]-15-9.5+24.5
5/28IND [ 82 ]IND -5.5
LAS +5.5
164.5LAS [ 88 ]-6-11.5+5.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/19WASIND +3
WAS -3
168IND--------
7/10INDIND -7
WAS +7
167.5WAS--------
6/19INDIND -5
WAS +5
167WAS--------
6/7WAS [ 83 ]IND -4.5
WAS +4.5
160.5IND [ 85 ]+2-2.5+7.595.4106.9104.42.5168
8/18IND [ 79 ]IND +5
WAS -5
162WAS [ 83 ]-4+1093101.9107.1-5.2162
7/19WAS [ 76 ]IND +2
WAS -2
158IND [ 82 ]+6+8094.5104.196.57.6158
7/7WAS [ 96 ]IND +3
WAS -3
157IND [ 88 ]-8-5+2789.3118.3129-10.8184
6/13IND [ 87 ]IND +4.5
WAS -4.5
157WAS [ 66 ]+21+25.5-491.4114.286.627.6153


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h6-6-20-0-03-3-00-0-03-3-21-0-00-1-02-1-12-2-0
Mystics 2-120-01-50-01-70-10-11-31-3
Fever 1h5-10-01-1-03-2-01-1-00-6-01-1-00-2-03-2-01-3-0
Fever 5-101-12-32-00-62-00-23-21-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h10-3-10-0-03-2-10-0-07-1-01-0-00-0-13-1-02-1-1
Mystics 9-5-00-0-03-3-00-0-06-2-00-1-01-0-02-2-03-1-0
Fever 1h5-9-11-1-03-2-00-1-11-5-01-1-01-1-02-2-12-2-0
Fever 7-8-01-1-03-2-01-1-02-4-02-0-00-2-02-3-02-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h4-9-10-0-01-4-10-0-03-5-00-1-00-0-12-2-01-2-1
Mystics 8-6-00-0-03-3-00-0-05-3-00-1-01-0-02-2-02-2-0
Fever 1h8-6-11-1-03-2-00-1-14-2-00-2-01-1-03-1-12-2-0
Fever 11-4-02-0-03-2-01-1-05-1-00-2-02-0-05-0-03-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h6-6-20-0-03-2-10-0-03-4-11-0-00-0-12-2-01-1-2
Mystics 8-6-00-0-03-3-00-0-05-3-00-1-01-0-02-2-02-2-0
Fever 1h3-10-21-1-02-2-10-1-10-6-00-2-00-2-02-2-11-3-0
Fever 8-7-01-1-03-2-01-1-03-3-00-2-01-1-03-2-02-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h3-10-10-0-00-5-10-0-03-5-00-1-00-0-11-3-01-2-1
Mystics 7-7-00-0-03-3-00-0-04-4-00-1-01-0-02-2-02-2-0
Fever 1h9-4-21-1-03-2-01-0-14-1-11-1-01-1-03-1-12-2-0
Fever 10-5-01-1-04-1-01-1-04-2-00-2-02-0-04-1-03-1-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Fever1-3-0 (25%)0-1-0 (0%)3-2-0 (60%)2-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Mystics3-1-0 (75%)1-1-0 (50%)5-3-0 (62.5%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)