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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sun (-13) a 68.7-76.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 154 around 47.8-46.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sun have a 74% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 46.8% chance of going over the total.


Sparks Situational Notes
Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Sun Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Sparks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/20NYLLAS +14
NYL -14
167LAS---
6/18CONLAS +13
CON -13
154LAS---
6/16ATL [ 87 ]LAS +5
ATL -5
161LAS [ 74 ]-13-80
6/14MIN [ 81 ]LAS +12
MIN -12
159.5LAS [ 76 ]-5+7-2.5
6/11SEA [ 95 ]LAS +11.5
SEA -11.5
157LAS [ 79 ]-16-4.5+17
6/9LAS [ 96 ]LAS +10
LVA -10
162LVA [ 92 ]+4+14+26
6/7LAS [ 81 ]LAS +4
DAL -4
160.5DAL [ 72 ]+9+13-7.5
6/5LAS [ 62 ]LAS +7
MIN -7
154.5MIN [ 86 ]-24-17-6.5
6/2PHO [ 87 ]LAS +5
PHO -5
162LAS [ 68 ]-19-14-7
5/30CHI [ 83 ]LAS +4.5
CHI -4.5
160LAS [ 73 ]-10-5.5-4

Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/21LVACON +5
LVA -5
165.5CON---
6/18CONCON -13
LAS +13
154LAS---
6/15DAL [ 67 ]CON -6.5
DAL +6.5
156.5CON [ 85 ]+18+11.5-4.5
6/12CHI [ 75 ]CON -7.5
CHI +7.5
153.5CON [ 83 ]+8+0.5+4.5
6/10CON [ 89 ]CON -10
IND +10
159.5IND [ 72 ]+17+7+1.5
6/8CON [ 75 ]CON +2
NYL -2
154NYL [ 82 ]-7-5+3
6/4CON [ 76 ]CON -13
WAS +13
152WAS [ 59 ]+17+4-17
6/2ATL [ 50 ]CON -2.5
ATL +2.5
159CON [ 69 ]+19+16.5-40
5/31CON [ 74 ]CON -8.5
DAL +8.5
161.5DAL [ 72 ]+2-6.5-15.5
5/28CON [ 70 ]CON -8
PHO +8
168PHO [ 47 ]+23+15-51

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/10LASCON -11.5
LAS +11.5
159.5CON--------
9/8LASCON -10.5
LAS +10.5
161CON--------
8/20CONCON -13.5
LAS +13.5
158LAS--------
6/18CONCON -13
LAS +13
154LAS--------
9/5CON [ 90 ]CON -7
LAS +7
154.5LAS [ 76 ]+14+7+11.589.5120.7101.918.8166
8/27CON [ 83 ]CON -6.5
LAS +6.5
157.5LAS [ 68 ]+15+8.5-6.598.1101.583.218.4151
6/18LAS [ 74 ]CON -3.5
LAS +3.5
158CON [ 83 ]+9+5.5-193.2106.895.311.6157


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h3-10-10-2-01-3-10-0-02-5-00-0-00-0-01-3-01-2-0
Sparks 4-101-12-30-01-60-00-01-31-2
Sun 1h8-3-25-1-10-0-13-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-14-1-0
Sun 12-17-00-15-00-00-00-02-15-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h7-7-00-2-03-2-00-0-04-3-00-0-00-0-01-3-02-1-0
Sparks 5-9-00-2-02-3-00-0-03-4-00-0-00-0-00-4-02-1-0
Sun 1h7-6-04-3-01-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-02-3-0
Sun 7-6-04-3-00-1-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-03-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h6-7-11-1-02-2-10-0-03-4-00-0-00-0-01-3-01-2-0
Sparks 6-7-11-1-02-3-00-0-03-3-10-0-00-0-01-3-02-0-1
Sun 1h4-9-02-5-00-1-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-01-4-0
Sun 6-6-12-4-11-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-02-2-1

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h6-8-00-2-03-2-00-0-03-4-00-0-00-0-01-3-01-2-0
Sparks 7-6-10-1-13-2-00-0-04-3-00-0-00-0-00-3-12-1-0
Sun 1h3-9-12-5-00-0-11-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-11-4-0
Sun 7-6-03-4-00-1-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-02-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h7-7-01-1-03-2-00-0-03-4-00-0-00-0-01-3-01-2-0
Sparks 8-6-01-1-03-2-00-0-04-3-00-0-00-0-02-2-01-2-0
Sun 1h3-10-00-7-00-1-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-01-4-0
Sun 6-7-02-5-01-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-02-3-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sun0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)3-3-0 (50%)2-2-0 (50%)2-0-0 (100%)
Sparks3-1-0 (75%)0-1-0 (0%)2-4-0 (33.3%)0-2-0 (0%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)