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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Wings (+6.5) a 33.4-21.5% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 156.5 around 56-55.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Wings have a 29.9% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 61.8% chance of going over the total.


Sun Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Wings Situational Notes
In season revenge
Rest disadvantage

Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/18CONCON -13
LAS +13
154LAS---
6/15DALCON -6.5
DAL +6.5
156.5CON---
6/12CHI [ 75 ]CON -7.5
CHI +7.5
153.5CON [ 83 ]+8+0.5+4.5
6/10CON [ 89 ]CON -10
IND +10
159.5IND [ 72 ]+17+7+1.5
6/8CON [ 75 ]CON +2
NYL -2
154NYL [ 82 ]-7-5+3
6/4CON [ 76 ]CON -13
WAS +13
152WAS [ 59 ]+17+4-17
6/2ATL [ 50 ]CON -2.5
ATL +2.5
159CON [ 69 ]+19+16.5-40
5/31CON [ 74 ]CON -8.5
DAL +8.5
161.5DAL [ 72 ]+2-6.5-15.5
5/28CON [ 70 ]CON -8
PHO +8
168PHO [ 47 ]+23+15-51
5/25CHI [ 82 ]CON -5
CHI +5
160.5CON [ 86 ]+4-1+7.5

Wings Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/17MINDAL +14.5
MIN -14.5
161.5DAL---
6/15DALDAL +6.5
CON -6.5
156.5CON---
6/13DAL [ 84 ]DAL +6.5
SEA -6.5
160.5SEA [ 92 ]-8-1.5+15.5
6/9DAL [ 90 ]DAL +1
PHO -1
163.5PHO [ 97 ]-7-6+23.5
6/7LAS [ 81 ]DAL -4
LAS +4
160.5DAL [ 72 ]-9-13-7.5
6/5DAL [ 81 ]DAL +9
LVA -9
167.5LVA [ 95 ]-14-5+8.5
6/2MIN [ 87 ]DAL +6.5
MIN -6.5
162.5DAL [ 76 ]-11-4.5+0.5
5/31CON [ 74 ]DAL +8.5
CON -8.5
161.5DAL [ 72 ]-2+6.5-15.5
5/26LAS [ 83 ]DAL +1.5
LAS -1.5
164.5DAL [ 84 ]+1+2.5+2.5
5/25PHO [ 92 ]DAL +5
PHO -5
168DAL [ 107 ]+15+20+31

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/16DALDAL +6
CON -6
160.5CON--------
6/15DALDAL +6.5
CON -6.5
156.5CON--------
5/31CON [ 74 ]DAL +8.5
CON -8.5
161.5DAL [ 72 ]-2+6.5-15.583.5103.4106.3-2.9146
8/18CON [ 75 ]DAL +4.5
CON -4.5
168DAL [ 95 ]+20+24.5+290.6125.899.326.5170
8/12DAL [ 91 ]DAL -2.5
CON +2.5
168CON [ 81 ]+10+7.5+495.2114.7102.112.6172
7/25DAL [ 83 ]DAL -3.5
CON +3.5
168CON [ 88 ]-5-8.5+387.6113.7120.6-6.9171
6/4CON [ 80 ]DAL +7
CON -7
166.5DAL [ 74 ]-6+1-12.594.693.9101.5-7.6154


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h7-3-25-1-10-0-12-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-14-1-0
Sun 11-17-00-14-00-00-00-01-15-0
Wings 1h5-6-01-1-00-3-01-0-03-2-01-0-01-0-01-2-01-1-0
Wings 3-81-10-30-12-31-01-01-21-1

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h6-6-04-3-01-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-02-3-0
Sun 6-6-04-3-00-1-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-03-2-0
Wings 1h6-5-01-1-00-3-01-0-04-1-01-0-01-0-01-2-01-1-0
Wings 4-6-10-1-10-3-00-1-04-1-01-0-01-0-02-1-01-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h4-8-02-5-00-1-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-01-4-0
Sun 6-5-12-4-11-0-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-0-02-2-1
Wings 1h6-4-11-1-02-1-00-0-13-2-01-0-01-0-02-1-02-0-0
Wings 7-4-01-1-03-0-00-1-03-2-01-0-01-0-02-1-02-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h2-9-12-5-00-0-10-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-11-4-0
Sun 6-6-03-4-00-1-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-02-3-0
Wings 1h6-5-00-2-02-1-01-0-03-2-01-0-01-0-02-1-02-0-0
Wings 6-5-01-1-03-0-00-1-02-3-01-0-01-0-02-1-02-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h3-9-00-7-00-1-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-01-4-0
Sun 6-6-02-5-01-0-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-0-02-3-0
Wings 1h3-8-01-1-02-1-00-1-00-5-00-1-00-1-01-2-01-1-0
Wings 8-2-12-0-03-0-01-0-02-2-11-0-00-0-12-1-01-0-1


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Wings0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)2-2-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-1 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Sun0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)2-3-0 (40%)2-2-0 (50%)2-0-0 (100%)