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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Fever (-2.5) a 21.1-26.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 170 around 47.8-47.5% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Fever have a 18.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 46.6% chance of going over the total.


Sky Situational Notes
In season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Fever Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Sky Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/20CHICHI -6
DAL +6
163DAL---
6/16INDCHI +2.5
IND -2.5
170CHI---
6/14WAS [ 83 ]CHI -2.5
WAS +2.5
158.5CHI [ 81 ]-2-4.5+5.5
6/12CHI [ 75 ]CHI +7.5
CON -7.5
153.5CON [ 83 ]-8-0.5+4.5
6/8CHI [ 80 ]CHI +1
ATL -1
158.5ATL [ 89 ]-9-8+10.5
6/6WAS [ 71 ]CHI -3
WAS +3
156CHI [ 79 ]+8+5-6
6/4CHI [ 75 ]CHI +8
NYL -8
165.5NYL [ 88 ]-13-5-2.5
6/1IND [ 71 ]CHI -1.5
IND +1.5
167.5CHI [ 70 ]-1-2.5-26.5
5/30CHI [ 83 ]CHI -4.5
LAS +4.5
160LAS [ 73 ]+10+5.5-4
5/28CHI [ 68 ]CHI +2
SEA -2
165SEA [ 77 ]-9-7-20

Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/19INDIND -5
WAS +5
167WAS---
6/16INDIND -2.5
CHI +2.5
170CHI---
6/13IND [ 91 ]IND +2.5
ATL -2.5
164ATL [ 84 ]+7+9.5+11
6/10CON [ 89 ]IND +10
CON -10
159.5IND [ 72 ]-17-7+1.5
6/7WAS [ 83 ]IND -4.5
WAS +4.5
160.5IND [ 85 ]+2-2.5+7.5
6/2NYL [ 104 ]IND +14.5
NYL -14.5
169IND [ 68 ]-36-21.5+3
6/1IND [ 71 ]IND +1.5
CHI -1.5
167.5CHI [ 70 ]+1+2.5-26.5
5/30IND [ 88 ]IND +5.5
SEA -5.5
166.5SEA [ 103 ]-15-9.5+24.5
5/28IND [ 82 ]IND -5.5
LAS +5.5
164.5LAS [ 88 ]-6-11.5+5.5
5/25LVA [ 99 ]IND +16
LVA -16
174.5IND [ 80 ]-19-3+4.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/30CHIIND -7
CHI +7
163.5IND--------
6/23CHIIND +2
CHI -2
169.5IND--------
6/16INDIND -2.5
CHI +2.5
170CHI--------
6/1IND [ 71 ]IND +1.5
CHI -1.5
167.5CHI [ 70 ]+1+2.5-26.591.792.991.61.3141
9/5IND [ 69 ]IND -1
CHI +1
164.5CHI [ 96 ]-27-28+0.596.885.5119-33.5165
7/2IND [ 87 ]IND -3
CHI +3
159.5CHI [ 89 ]-2-5+16.594.8110.1112.7-2.5176
6/15CHI [ 90 ]IND -1.5
CHI +1.5
157IND [ 92 ]+2+0.5+2586.8127.1124.42.8182
6/6CHI [ 108 ]IND +5
CHI -5
157IND [ 103 ]-50+5491123.1129-6191.1


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h4-8-01-0-01-4-00-3-02-1-00-0-00-0-01-2-00-1-0
Sky 4-81-00-51-22-10-00-01-20-1
Fever 1h4-10-00-1-03-2-01-1-00-6-01-1-00-2-02-2-01-3-0
Fever 4-100-12-32-00-62-00-22-21-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h6-5-11-0-03-1-10-3-02-1-00-0-00-0-03-0-00-1-0
Sky 5-6-11-0-01-4-01-2-02-0-10-0-00-0-01-2-00-1-0
Fever 1h4-9-10-1-03-2-00-1-11-5-01-1-01-1-01-2-12-2-0
Fever 6-8-00-1-03-2-01-1-02-4-02-0-00-2-01-3-02-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h5-7-00-1-03-2-01-2-01-2-00-0-00-0-01-2-01-0-0
Sky 6-6-00-1-03-2-01-2-02-1-00-0-00-0-02-1-01-0-0
Fever 1h7-6-10-1-03-2-00-1-14-2-00-2-01-1-02-1-12-2-0
Fever 10-4-01-0-03-2-01-1-05-1-00-2-02-0-04-0-03-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h6-6-01-0-03-2-00-3-02-1-00-0-00-0-03-0-00-1-0
Sky 8-4-01-0-03-2-01-2-03-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-01-0-0
Fever 1h2-10-20-1-02-2-10-1-10-6-00-2-00-2-01-2-11-3-0
Fever 7-7-00-1-03-2-01-1-03-3-00-2-01-1-02-2-02-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h4-8-00-1-02-3-02-1-00-3-00-0-00-0-01-2-01-0-0
Sky 6-6-00-1-04-1-01-2-01-2-00-0-00-0-02-1-01-0-0
Fever 1h8-4-20-1-03-2-01-0-14-1-11-1-01-1-02-1-12-2-0
Fever 10-4-01-0-04-1-01-1-04-2-00-2-02-0-04-0-03-1-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Fever1-3-0 (25%)0-1-0 (0%)3-2-0 (60%)2-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Sky1-0-0 (100%)0-2-1 (0%)2-0-0 (100%)0-3-0 (0%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)