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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Lynx (-12) a 69.6-73.6% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 159.5 around 49.1-48.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Lynx have a 77.1% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 49.4% chance of going over the total.


Sparks Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Double digit, in season revenge

Baller Systems
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Lynx Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Sparks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/16ATLLAS +5
ATL -5
161LAS---
6/14MINLAS +12
MIN -12
159.5LAS---
6/11SEA [ 95 ]LAS +11.5
SEA -11.5
157LAS [ 79 ]-16-4.5+17
6/9LAS [ 96 ]LAS +10
LVA -10
162LVA [ 92 ]+4+14+26
6/7LAS [ 81 ]LAS +4
DAL -4
160.5DAL [ 72 ]+9+13-7.5
6/5LAS [ 62 ]LAS +7
MIN -7
154.5MIN [ 86 ]-24-17-6.5
6/2PHO [ 87 ]LAS +5
PHO -5
162LAS [ 68 ]-19-14-7
5/30CHI [ 83 ]LAS +4.5
CHI -4.5
160LAS [ 73 ]-10-5.5-4
5/28IND [ 82 ]LAS +5.5
IND -5.5
164.5LAS [ 88 ]+6+11.5+5.5
5/26LAS [ 83 ]LAS -1.5
DAL +1.5
164.5DAL [ 84 ]-1-2.5+2.5

Lynx Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/17MINMIN -14.5
DAL +14.5
161.5DAL---
6/14MINMIN -12
LAS +12
159.5LAS---
6/11LVA [ 86 ]MIN +7
LVA -7
166MIN [ 100 ]+14+21+20
6/9MIN [ 83 ]MIN -1.5
SEA +1.5
157SEA [ 64 ]+19+17.5-10
6/7PHO [ 81 ]MIN -4.5
PHO +4.5
161.5MIN [ 80 ]-1-5.5-0.5
6/5LAS [ 62 ]MIN -7
LAS +7
154.5MIN [ 86 ]+24+17-6.5
6/2MIN [ 87 ]MIN -6.5
DAL +6.5
162.5DAL [ 76 ]+11+4.5+0.5
5/31MIN [ 95 ]MIN -6.5
PHO +6.5
165PHO [ 71 ]+24+17.5+1
5/29MIN [ 66 ]MIN +4.5
LVA -4.5
169.5LVA [ 80 ]-14-9.5-23.5
5/26ATL [ 79 ]MIN +4.5
ATL -4.5
167.5MIN [ 92 ]+13+17.5+3.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/19MINMIN -4.5
LAS +4.5
158.5LAS--------
7/9LASMIN -4.5
LAS +4.5
158.5MIN--------
6/14MINMIN -12
LAS +12
159.5LAS--------
6/5LAS [ 62 ]MIN -7
LAS +7
154.5MIN [ 86 ]+24+17-6.595.4108.27830.2148
7/20MIN [ 73 ]MIN -4
LAS +4
164.5LAS [ 70 ]+3-1-21.59592.288.43.8143
6/20LAS [ 61 ]MIN +5.5
LAS -5.5
158MIN [ 67 ]+6+11.5-3092.387.179.37.8128
6/16LAS [ 72 ]MIN +5.5
LAS -5.5
161.5MIN [ 77 ]+5+10.5-12.587.1106.199.26.9149
6/11MIN [ 91 ]MIN +1.5
LAS -1.5
160.5LAS [ 86 ]+5+6.5+16.595.9113.9107.76.3177


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h2-9-10-2-01-3-10-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-01-3-01-1-0
Sparks 4-81-12-30-01-40-00-01-31-1
Lynx 1h8-4-02-1-02-1-01-1-03-1-01-0-01-0-00-1-01-2-0
Lynx 9-33-02-11-13-11-01-00-11-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h6-6-00-2-03-2-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-01-3-02-0-0
Sparks 4-8-00-2-02-3-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-4-02-0-0
Lynx 1h8-4-01-2-02-1-01-1-04-0-01-0-01-0-01-0-01-2-0
Lynx 10-2-03-0-02-1-01-1-04-0-01-0-01-0-01-0-01-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h4-7-11-1-02-2-10-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-01-3-00-2-0
Sparks 6-6-01-1-02-3-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-01-3-02-0-0
Lynx 1h4-8-01-2-00-3-00-2-03-1-00-1-01-0-00-1-01-2-0
Lynx 5-6-12-1-01-2-00-2-02-1-10-1-01-0-00-0-11-2-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h4-8-00-2-03-2-00-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-01-3-00-2-0
Sparks 6-5-10-1-13-2-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-3-12-0-0
Lynx 1h7-5-01-2-02-1-01-1-03-1-01-0-01-0-00-1-01-2-0
Lynx 10-2-03-0-02-1-01-1-04-0-01-0-01-0-01-0-01-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h6-6-01-1-03-2-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-01-3-00-2-0
Sparks 7-5-01-1-03-2-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-02-2-00-2-0
Lynx 1h3-8-11-2-00-3-00-2-02-1-10-1-01-0-00-1-01-2-0
Lynx 2-10-00-3-01-2-01-1-00-4-00-1-00-1-00-1-01-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Lynx0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)3-1-0 (75%)2-0-0 (100%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)
Sparks2-1-0 (66.7%)0-1-0 (0%)2-3-0 (40%)0-2-0 (0%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)