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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Fever (+2.5) a 33-40% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 164 around 48.4-48.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Fever have a 15.3% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 54.8% chance of going over the total.


Dream Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Rest disadvantage

Fever Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/16ATLATL -5
LAS +5
161LAS---
6/13INDATL -2.5
IND +2.5
164ATL---
6/11ATL [ 68 ]ATL -6
WAS +6
156.5WAS [ 87 ]-19-25-1.5
6/8CHI [ 80 ]ATL -1
CHI +1
158.5ATL [ 89 ]+9+8+10.5
6/6ATL [ 61 ]ATL +6.5
NYL -6.5
163.5NYL [ 78 ]-17-10.5-24.5
6/2ATL [ 50 ]ATL +2.5
CON -2.5
159CON [ 69 ]-19-16.5-40
5/31ATL [ 78 ]ATL +8.5
LVA -8.5
172LVA [ 74 ]+4+12.5-20
5/29WAS [ 67 ]ATL -3
WAS +3
163.5ATL [ 73 ]+6+3-23.5
5/26ATL [ 79 ]ATL -4.5
MIN +4.5
167.5MIN [ 92 ]-13-17.5+3.5
5/21ATL [ 83 ]ATL -5.5
DAL +5.5
169DAL [ 78 ]+5-0.5-8

Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/16INDIND -2.5
CHI +2.5
170CHI---
6/13INDIND +2.5
ATL -2.5
164ATL---
6/10CON [ 89 ]IND +10
CON -10
159.5IND [ 72 ]-17-7+1.5
6/7WAS [ 83 ]IND -4.5
WAS +4.5
160.5IND [ 85 ]+2-2.5+7.5
6/2NYL [ 104 ]IND +14.5
NYL -14.5
169IND [ 68 ]-36-21.5+3
6/1IND [ 71 ]IND +1.5
CHI -1.5
167.5CHI [ 70 ]+1+2.5-26.5
5/30IND [ 88 ]IND +5.5
SEA -5.5
166.5SEA [ 103 ]-15-9.5+24.5
5/28IND [ 82 ]IND -5.5
LAS +5.5
164.5LAS [ 88 ]-6-11.5+5.5
5/25LVA [ 99 ]IND +16
LVA -16
174.5IND [ 80 ]-19-3+4.5
5/24LAS [ 73 ]IND -1.5
LAS +1.5
165IND [ 78 ]+5+3.5-14

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/8INDIND -5.5
ATL +5.5
170ATL--------
8/26ATLIND -1.5
ATL +1.5
167IND--------
6/21ATLIND -3
ATL +3
163IND--------
6/13INDIND +2.5
ATL -2.5
164ATL--------
8/27IND [ 83 ]IND +1
ATL -1
164.5ATL [ 80 ]+3+4-1.594.1105.9102.13.8163
8/6ATL [ 82 ]IND +8
ATL -8
167IND [ 73 ]-9-1-1291.495.9107.7-11.8155
6/18IND [ 94 ]IND +1
ATL -1
165.5ATL [ 100 ]-6-5+28.5105.3107.1113.9-6.8194
5/28ATL [ 87 ]IND +7
ATL -7
160.5IND [ 90 ]+3+10+16.595.4113.2109.43.8177


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h2-7-10-3-00-3-02-1-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-3-01-1-0
Dream 5-51-21-23-10-00-00-00-31-1
Fever 1h3-10-00-1-02-2-01-1-00-6-01-1-00-2-01-2-01-3-0
Fever 3-100-11-32-00-62-00-21-21-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h2-8-00-3-00-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-3-01-1-0
Dream 4-6-00-3-01-2-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-3-01-1-0
Fever 1h3-9-10-1-02-2-00-1-11-5-01-1-01-1-00-2-12-2-0
Fever 5-8-00-1-02-2-01-1-02-4-02-0-00-2-00-3-02-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h4-6-02-1-00-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-00-2-0
Dream 4-6-01-2-00-3-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-01-1-0
Fever 1h6-6-10-1-02-2-00-1-14-2-00-2-01-1-01-1-12-2-0
Fever 9-4-01-0-02-2-01-1-05-1-00-2-02-0-03-0-03-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h3-7-01-2-00-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-00-2-0
Dream 2-8-00-3-00-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-3-00-2-0
Fever 1h1-10-20-1-01-2-10-1-10-6-00-2-00-2-00-2-11-3-0
Fever 6-7-00-1-02-2-01-1-03-3-00-2-01-1-01-2-02-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h4-5-12-0-10-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-11-1-0
Dream 5-5-02-1-00-3-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-01-1-0
Fever 1h7-4-20-1-02-2-01-0-14-1-11-1-01-1-01-1-12-2-0
Fever 9-4-01-0-03-1-01-1-04-2-00-2-02-0-03-0-03-1-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Fever1-3-0 (25%)0-1-0 (0%)2-2-0 (50%)2-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Dream0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)2-3-0 (40%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)