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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (-6) a 54.8-56.8% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 156.5 around 43.4-42.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 41.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 42.1% chance of going over the total.


Mystics Situational Notes
In season revenge
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Dream Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Mystics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/14WASWAS +2.5
CHI -2.5
158.5CHI---
6/11ATLWAS +6
ATL -6
156.5WAS---
6/9NYL [ 93 ]WAS +14
NYL -14
156WAS [ 88 ]-5+9+25
6/7WAS [ 83 ]WAS +4.5
IND -4.5
160.5IND [ 85 ]-2+2.5+7.5
6/6WAS [ 71 ]WAS +3
CHI -3
156CHI [ 79 ]-8-5-6
6/4CON [ 76 ]WAS +13
CON -13
152WAS [ 59 ]-17-4-17
5/31NYL [ 90 ]WAS +13
NYL -13
159.5WAS [ 79 ]-11+2+9.5
5/29WAS [ 67 ]WAS +3
ATL -3
163.5ATL [ 73 ]-6-3-23.5
5/25SEA [ 101 ]WAS +8.5
SEA -8.5
159.5WAS [ 69 ]-32-23.5+10.5
5/23PHO [ 83 ]WAS +6
PHO -6
161.5WAS [ 80 ]-3+3+1.5

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/13INDATL -2.5
IND +2.5
164ATL---
6/11ATLATL -6
WAS +6
156.5WAS---
6/8CHI [ 80 ]ATL -1
CHI +1
158.5ATL [ 89 ]+9+8+10.5
6/6ATL [ 61 ]ATL +6.5
NYL -6.5
163.5NYL [ 78 ]-17-10.5-24.5
6/2ATL [ 50 ]ATL +2.5
CON -2.5
159CON [ 69 ]-19-16.5-40
5/31ATL [ 78 ]ATL +8.5
LVA -8.5
172LVA [ 74 ]+4+12.5-20
5/29WAS [ 67 ]ATL -3
WAS +3
163.5ATL [ 73 ]+6+3-23.5
5/26ATL [ 79 ]ATL -4.5
MIN +4.5
167.5MIN [ 92 ]-13-17.5+3.5
5/21ATL [ 83 ]ATL -5.5
DAL +5.5
169DAL [ 78 ]+5-0.5-8
5/18PHO [ 88 ]ATL -2
PHO +2
170ATL [ 85 ]-3-5+3

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/15WASATL -1
WAS +1
154ATL--------
9/13ATLATL -4.5
WAS +4.5
155WAS--------
6/11ATLATL -6
WAS +6
156.5WAS--------
5/29WAS [ 67 ]ATL -3
WAS +3
163.5ATL [ 73 ]+6+3-23.595.39284.47.6140
9/8WAS [ 75 ]ATL +6
WAS -6
162ATL [ 80 ]+5+11-792.6103.797.26.5155
7/30ATL [ 80 ]ATL -8.5
WAS +8.5
167WAS [ 73 ]+7-1.5-1499.196.988.48.5153
6/30ATL [ 94 ]ATL +1.5
WAS -1.5
164WAS [ 89 ]+5+6.5+1997.3115.9109.76.2183
6/28WAS [ 109 ]ATL +5
WAS -5
163ATL [ 86 ]-23-18+32104.199.1125.6-26.5195


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h4-6-20-0-02-3-00-0-02-3-21-0-00-1-01-1-11-2-0
Mystics 0-120-00-50-00-70-10-10-30-3
Dream 1h2-6-10-2-00-3-02-1-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-01-1-0
Dream 5-41-11-23-10-00-00-00-21-1

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h8-3-10-0-02-2-10-0-06-1-01-0-00-0-12-1-01-1-1
Mystics 7-5-00-0-02-3-00-0-05-2-00-1-01-0-01-2-02-1-0
Dream 1h2-7-00-2-00-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-01-1-0
Dream 4-5-00-2-01-2-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-01-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h3-8-10-0-00-4-10-0-03-4-00-1-00-0-11-2-01-1-1
Mystics 7-5-00-0-02-3-00-0-05-2-00-1-01-0-01-2-02-1-0
Dream 1h4-5-02-0-00-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-2-0
Dream 4-5-01-1-00-3-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-01-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h5-6-10-0-02-2-10-0-03-4-01-0-00-0-11-2-01-1-1
Mystics 6-6-00-0-02-3-00-0-04-3-00-1-01-0-01-2-01-2-0
Dream 1h3-6-01-1-00-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-2-0
Dream 2-7-00-2-00-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-00-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h3-8-10-0-00-4-10-0-03-4-00-1-00-0-11-2-01-1-1
Mystics 6-6-00-0-02-3-00-0-04-3-00-1-01-0-01-2-02-1-0
Dream 1h4-5-02-0-00-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-01-1-0
Dream 4-5-01-1-00-3-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-01-1-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)2-2-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Mystics3-1-0 (75%)1-1-0 (50%)3-3-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)