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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sun (-10) a 81.8-76.9% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 159.5 around 46.6-47.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sun have a 81.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 43.3% chance of going over the total.


Fever Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge

Baller Systems
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Sun Situational Notes
Rest disadvantage

Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/13INDIND +2.5
ATL -2.5
164ATL---
6/10CONIND +10
CON -10
159.5IND---
6/7WAS [ 83 ]IND -4.5
WAS +4.5
160.5IND [ 85 ]+2-2.5+7.5
6/2NYL [ 104 ]IND +14.5
NYL -14.5
169IND [ 68 ]-36-21.5+3
6/1IND [ 71 ]IND +1.5
CHI -1.5
167.5CHI [ 70 ]+1+2.5-26.5
5/30IND [ 88 ]IND +5.5
SEA -5.5
166.5SEA [ 103 ]-15-9.5+24.5
5/28IND [ 82 ]IND -5.5
LAS +5.5
164.5LAS [ 88 ]-6-11.5+5.5
5/25LVA [ 99 ]IND +16
LVA -16
174.5IND [ 80 ]-19-3+4.5
5/24LAS [ 73 ]IND -1.5
LAS +1.5
165IND [ 78 ]+5+3.5-14
5/22SEA [ 85 ]IND +5.5
SEA -5.5
165.5IND [ 83 ]-2+3.5+2.5

Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/12CHICON -7.5
CHI +7.5
153.5CON---
6/10CONCON -10
IND +10
159.5IND---
6/8CON [ 75 ]CON +2
NYL -2
154NYL [ 82 ]-7-5+3
6/4CON [ 76 ]CON -13
WAS +13
152WAS [ 59 ]+17+4-17
6/2ATL [ 50 ]CON -2.5
ATL +2.5
159CON [ 69 ]+19+16.5-40
5/31CON [ 74 ]CON -8.5
DAL +8.5
161.5DAL [ 72 ]+2-6.5-15.5
5/28CON [ 70 ]CON -8
PHO +8
168PHO [ 47 ]+23+15-51
5/25CHI [ 82 ]CON -5
CHI +5
160.5CON [ 86 ]+4-1+7.5
5/23CON [ 83 ]CON -6.5
MIN +6.5
165MIN [ 82 ]+1-5.50
5/20IND [ 84 ]CON -5.5
IND +5.5
163.5CON [ 88 ]+4-1.5+8.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/27IND-
-		-CON--------
9/25CONCON -7
IND +7
163.5IND--------
9/22CONCON -6.5
IND +6.5
164.5IND--------
8/28INDCON -4
IND +4
164.5CON--------
6/10CONCON -10
IND +10
159.5IND--------
5/20IND [ 84 ]CON -5.5
IND +5.5
163.5CON [ 88 ]+4-1.5+8.590.3117111.75.3172
5/14CON [ 92 ]CON -6.5
IND +6.5
166.5IND [ 71 ]+21+14.5-3.596.1114.888.626.2163
9/8CON [ 76 ]CON -10
IND +10
160.5IND [ 59 ]+17+7-25.590.1101.278.622.6135
8/4IND [ 72 ]CON -8
IND +8
160.5CON [ 88 ]+16+8-0.588.1119.998.121.8160
5/30CON [ 81 ]CON -12.5
IND +12.5
158IND [ 78 ]+3-9.5+192.2105.4101.53.9159
5/19IND [ 61 ]CON -8
IND +8
162CON [ 70 ]+9+1-3197.885.974.911131


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h3-9-00-1-02-2-01-1-00-5-01-1-00-2-01-1-01-3-0
Fever 3-90-11-32-00-52-00-21-11-3
Sun 1h5-3-24-1-10-0-11-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-12-1-0
Sun 9-16-00-13-00-00-00-01-13-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h3-8-10-1-02-2-00-1-11-4-01-1-01-1-00-1-12-2-0
Fever 5-7-00-1-02-2-01-1-02-3-02-0-00-2-00-2-02-2-0
Sun 1h5-5-03-3-01-0-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-01-2-0
Sun 4-6-03-3-00-1-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-01-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h5-6-10-1-02-2-00-1-13-2-00-2-01-1-00-1-12-2-0
Fever 8-4-01-0-02-2-01-1-04-1-00-2-02-0-02-0-03-1-0
Sun 1h3-7-01-5-00-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-3-0
Sun 4-5-11-4-11-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-0-00-2-1

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h1-9-20-1-01-2-10-1-10-5-00-2-00-2-00-1-11-3-0
Fever 6-6-00-1-02-2-01-1-03-2-00-2-01-1-01-1-02-2-0
Sun 1h1-8-11-5-00-0-10-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-10-3-0
Sun 4-6-02-4-00-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h6-4-20-1-02-2-01-0-13-1-11-1-01-1-00-1-12-2-0
Fever 8-4-01-0-03-1-01-1-03-2-00-2-02-0-02-0-03-1-0
Sun 1h2-8-00-6-00-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-3-0
Sun 5-5-02-4-01-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-0-01-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sun0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)2-3-0 (40%)1-2-0 (33.3%)1-0-0 (100%)
Fever1-2-0 (33.3%)0-1-0 (0%)2-2-0 (50%)2-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)