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Mystics @ Sun [ -13 / 152 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

June 4, 2024
Sun | 29-12 (70.7%)
Mystics | 14-26 (35%)

Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sun (-13) a 74-71.7% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 152 around 43.7-43.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sun have a 78.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 44% chance of going over the total.

Mystics Situational Notes
In season revenge

Sun Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Mystics Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
6/6	WAS	WAS +3 CHI -3	156	CHI	-	-	-
6/4	CON	WAS +13 CON -13	152	WAS	-	-	-
5/31	NYL [ 90 ]	WAS +13 NYL -13	159.5	WAS [ 79 ]	-11	+2	+9.5
5/29	WAS [ 67 ]	WAS +3 ATL -3	163.5	ATL [ 73 ]	-6	-3	-23.5
5/25	SEA [ 101 ]	WAS +8.5 SEA -8.5	159.5	WAS [ 69 ]	-32	-23.5	+10.5
5/23	PHO [ 83 ]	WAS +6 PHO -6	161.5	WAS [ 80 ]	-3	+3	+1.5
5/21	LAS [ 70 ]	WAS +2.5 LAS -2.5	158.5	WAS [ 68 ]	-2	+0.5	-20.5
5/19	WAS [ 75 ]	WAS +4.5 SEA -4.5	161	SEA [ 84 ]	-9	-4.5	-2
5/17	CON [ 84 ]	WAS +8 CON -8	157.5	WAS [ 77 ]	-7	+1	+3.5
5/14	WAS [ 80 ]	WAS +11.5 NYL -11.5	164	NYL [ 85 ]	-5	+6.5	+1

Sun Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
6/8	CON	CON +2 NYL -2	154	NYL	-	-	-
6/4	CON	CON -13 WAS +13	152	WAS	-	-	-
6/2	ATL [ 50 ]	CON -2.5 ATL +2.5	159	CON [ 69 ]	+19	+16.5	-40
5/31	CON [ 74 ]	CON -8.5 DAL +8.5	161.5	DAL [ 72 ]	+2	-6.5	-15.5
5/28	CON [ 70 ]	CON -8 PHO +8	168	PHO [ 47 ]	+23	+15	-51
5/25	CHI [ 82 ]	CON -5 CHI +5	160.5	CON [ 86 ]	+4	-1	+7.5
5/23	CON [ 83 ]	CON -6.5 MIN +6.5	165	MIN [ 82 ]	+1	-5.5	0
5/20	IND [ 84 ]	CON -5.5 IND +5.5	163.5	CON [ 88 ]	+4	-1.5	+8.5
5/17	CON [ 84 ]	CON -8 WAS +8	157.5	WAS [ 77 ]	+7	-1	+3.5
5/14	CON [ 92 ]	CON -6.5 IND +6.5	166.5	IND [ 71 ]	+21	+14.5	-3.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
8/31	WAS	CON -8 WAS +8	153.5	CON	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6/27	WAS	CON -10.5 WAS +10.5	152	CON	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6/4	CON	CON -13 WAS +13	152	WAS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/17	CON [ 84 ]	CON -8 WAS +8	157.5	WAS [ 77 ]	+7	-1	+3.5	93.9	107.4	98.4	8.9	161
8/22	WAS [ 64 ]	CON -3.5 WAS +3.5	159.5	CON [ 68 ]	+4	+0.5	-27.5	90.4	90.2	84.9	5.3	132
7/9	CON [ 92 ]	CON -4.5 WAS +4.5	160.5	WAS [ 84 ]	+8	+3.5	+15.5	94.7	116.6	106.4	10.1	176
5/23	WAS [ 81 ]	CON +5 WAS -5	158	CON [ 88 ]	+7	+12	+11	91.3	115.6	106.4	9.2	169
5/21	CON [ 80 ]	CON +1 WAS -1	158.5	WAS [ 74 ]	+6	+7	-4.5	99.7	96.3	89.1	7.2	154

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

Mystics (last 8 games)		Sun (last 8 games)
0.36 (10)	Win Percentage	0.7 (3)
62.5 (5)	ATS Win%	37.5 (9)
62.5 (2)	OU%	42.86 (10)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
98.49 (9)	Offensive Rating	102.8 (4)
101.32 (8)	Defensive Rating	95.18 (2)
96.32 (6)	Pace	92.71 (12)
1.33 (5)	A/TO Ratio	1.49 (3)

Four Factors

Mystics (last 8 games)		Sun (last 8 games)
50.72 (3)	EFG%	48.7 (6)
49.83 (11)	EFG% Allowed	48.33 (7)
22.01 (11)	FT Rate	31.03 (3)
30.24 (11)	FT Rate Allowed	26.59 (6)
20.42 (10)	OReb%	25.32 (5)
24.69 (5)	OReb% Allowed	21.53 (3)
20.16 (10)	TO Rate	17.17 (3)
19.93 (5)	TO Rate Forced	20.97 (4)

Scoring

Mystics (last 8 games)		Sun (last 8 games)
79.56 (8)	PPG	79.93 (7)
81.85 (8)	PPG Allowed	74 (1)
15.85 (7)	Pts off TO	20.49 (2)
17.92 (10)	Pts off TO Allowed	13.12 (2)
8.54 (12)	2nd Chance Pts	13.52 (2)
10.23 (4)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	9.02 (2)
8.03 (11)	Fast Break Pts	10.52 (7)
9.26 (3)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	8.42 (2)

Inside the Arc

Mystics (last 8 games)		Sun (last 8 games)
30.08 (9)	Paint Attempts	36.3 (4)
31.33 (2)	Paint Attempts Allowed	32.18 (3)
50.38 (7)	Paint FG%	52.62 (4)
54.17 (12)	Paint FG% Allowed	53.07 (10)
10.44 (7)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.25 (6)
13.36 (8)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.65 (4)
0.4 (5)	Mid-Range FG%	0.36 (7)
0.38 (9)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.37 (5)

Three Point Shooting

Mystics (last 8 games)		Sun (last 8 games)
3.13 (5)	Corner 3 Attempts	2.3 (9)
5.92 (10)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	4.05 (5)
41.8 (1)	Corner 3 FG%	30.43 (7)
35.06 (9)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	33.95 (6)
23.41 (3)	ATB3 Attempts	15.8 (9)
15.36 (6)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	14.05 (3)
35.93 (4)	ATB3 FG%	33.39 (8)
32.55 (5)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	29.89 (2)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mystics 1h	2-5-1	0-0-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	1-3-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Mystics	0-8	0-0	0-3	0-0	0-5	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-2
Sun 1h	5-2-1	4-0-1	0-0-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	2-0-0
Sun	8-0	5-0	0-0	3-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	2-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mystics 1h	5-3-0	0-0-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	4-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Mystics	5-3-0	0-0-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	4-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Sun 1h	4-4-0	3-2-0	0-0-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Sun	3-5-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	0-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mystics 1h	2-6-0	0-0-0	0-3-0	0-0-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Mystics	5-3-0	0-0-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	4-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Sun 1h	3-5-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0
Sun	3-4-1	1-3-1	0-0-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-1-1

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mystics 1h	3-5-0	0-0-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Mystics	4-4-0	0-0-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	3-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	0-2-0
Sun 1h	1-7-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	0-2-0
Sun	4-4-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mystics 1h	2-6-0	0-0-0	0-3-0	0-0-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Mystics	4-4-0	0-0-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	3-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Sun 1h	2-6-0	0-5-0	0-0-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0
Sun	4-4-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	1-1-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Sun	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	2-3-0 (40%)	1-2-0 (33.3%)	0-0-0 (-)
Mystics	2-0-0 (100%)	1-1-0 (50%)	2-2-0 (50%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)