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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Wings (+9) a 60.5-60.5% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 167.5 around 50.6-50.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Wings have a 62.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 35.5% chance of going over the total.


Aces Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Wings Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Aces Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/7LVALVA -8
SEA +8
166.5SEA---
6/5DALLVA -9
DAL +9
167.5LVA---
5/31ATL [ 78 ]LVA -8.5
ATL +8.5
172LVA [ 74 ]-4-12.5-20
5/29MIN [ 66 ]LVA -4.5
MIN +4.5
169.5LVA [ 80 ]+14+9.5-23.5
5/25LVA [ 99 ]LVA -16
IND +16
174.5IND [ 80 ]+19+3+4.5
5/21LVA [ 88 ]LVA -14
PHO +14
172.5PHO [ 98 ]-10-24+13.5
5/18LVA [ 89 ]LVA -18
LAS +18
169.5LAS [ 82 ]+7-11+1.5
5/14LVA [ 89 ]LVA -16.5
PHO +16.5
170PHO [ 80 ]+9-7.5-1

Wings Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/7LASDAL -4
LAS +4
160.5DAL---
6/5DALDAL +9
LVA -9
167.5LVA---
6/2MIN [ 87 ]DAL +6.5
MIN -6.5
162.5DAL [ 76 ]-11-4.5+0.5
5/31CON [ 74 ]DAL +8.5
CON -8.5
161.5DAL [ 72 ]-2+6.5-15.5
5/26LAS [ 83 ]DAL +1.5
LAS -1.5
164.5DAL [ 84 ]+1+2.5+2.5
5/25PHO [ 92 ]DAL +5
PHO -5
168DAL [ 107 ]+15+20+31
5/21ATL [ 83 ]DAL +5.5
ATL -5.5
169DAL [ 78 ]-5+0.5-8
5/18DAL [ 74 ]DAL -5
CHI +5
164CHI [ 83 ]-9-14-7
5/15DAL [ 87 ]DAL -8
CHI +8
161.5CHI [ 79 ]+80+4.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/19LVADAL -4
LVA +4
170.5DAL--------
8/27DALDAL +9.5
LVA -9.5
181LVA--------
7/7LVADAL +16
LVA -16
180DAL--------
6/5DALDAL +9
LVA -9
167.5LVA--------
9/29DAL [ 61 ]DAL +6
LVA -6
174LVA [ 64 ]-3+3-4995.276.980.7-3.8125
9/26LVA [ 91 ]DAL +10.5
LVA -10.5
175DAL [ 84 ]-7+3.5092109.6118.7-9.1175
9/24LVA [ 97 ]DAL +10.5
LVA -10.5
174.5DAL [ 83 ]-14-3.5+5.594105.9123.8-17.9180
8/8DAL [ 84 ]DAL +8.5
LVA -8.5
178LVA [ 104 ]-20-11.5+1096.1104.8129.8-25188
7/30LVA [ 104 ]DAL +11
LVA -11
175DAL [ 91 ]-13-2+2099.6109.6125.3-15.7195
7/7DAL [ 80 ]DAL +10
LVA -10
177LVA [ 78 ]+2+12-1993.9102.399.72.6158
7/5LVA [ 89 ]DAL +14
LVA -14
176DAL [ 82 ]-7+7-595.6102.9111.7-8.8171


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h6-0-04-0-00-0-02-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-03-0-00-0-0
Aces 4-23-10-01-10-00-00-03-00-0
Wings 1h4-3-01-1-00-0-00-0-03-2-01-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-0
Wings 3-41-10-00-02-31-01-01-11-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h2-4-00-4-00-0-02-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-00-0-0
Aces 2-4-01-3-00-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-00-0-0
Wings 1h5-2-01-1-00-0-00-0-04-1-01-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-0
Wings 4-2-10-1-10-0-00-0-04-1-01-0-01-0-02-0-01-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h1-5-01-3-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-3-00-0-0
Aces 3-3-03-1-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-00-0-0
Wings 1h4-3-01-1-00-0-00-0-03-2-01-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-0
Wings 4-3-01-1-00-0-00-0-03-2-01-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h0-6-00-4-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-3-00-0-0
Aces 1-5-01-3-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-00-0-0
Wings 1h3-4-00-2-00-0-00-0-03-2-01-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-0
Wings 3-4-01-1-00-0-00-0-02-3-01-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h2-4-02-2-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-3-00-0-0
Aces 4-2-04-0-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-00-0-0
Wings 1h1-6-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-5-00-1-00-1-00-2-00-1-0
Wings 4-2-12-0-00-0-00-0-02-2-11-0-00-0-11-1-00-0-1


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Wings0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-1 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Aces0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)1-3-0 (25%)