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6/1 | 6/4CON@ATL IND@NYL DAL@MIN LAS@PHO

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Sun @ Dream [ +2.5 / 159 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

June 2, 2024
Dream | 15-27 (35.7%)
Sun | 29-12 (70.7%)

Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (+2.5) a 41.4-41.4% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 159 around 53.1-53.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 43.9% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 70.5% chance of going over the total.

Sun Situational Notes

Dream Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Sun Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
6/4	CON	CON -13 WAS +13	152	WAS	-	-	-
6/2	ATL	CON -2.5 ATL +2.5	159	CON	-	-	-
5/31	CON [ 74 ]	CON -8.5 DAL +8.5	161.5	DAL [ 72 ]	+2	-6.5	-15.5
5/28	CON [ 70 ]	CON -8 PHO +8	168	PHO [ 47 ]	+23	+15	-51
5/25	CHI [ 82 ]	CON -5 CHI +5	160.5	CON [ 86 ]	+4	-1	+7.5
5/23	CON [ 83 ]	CON -6.5 MIN +6.5	165	MIN [ 82 ]	+1	-5.5	0
5/20	IND [ 84 ]	CON -5.5 IND +5.5	163.5	CON [ 88 ]	+4	-1.5	+8.5
5/17	CON [ 84 ]	CON -8 WAS +8	157.5	WAS [ 77 ]	+7	-1	+3.5
5/14	CON [ 92 ]	CON -6.5 IND +6.5	166.5	IND [ 71 ]	+21	+14.5	-3.5

Dream Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
6/6	ATL	ATL +6.5 NYL -6.5	163.5	NYL	-	-	-
6/2	ATL	ATL +2.5 CON -2.5	159	CON	-	-	-
5/31	ATL [ 78 ]	ATL +8.5 LVA -8.5	172	LVA [ 74 ]	+4	+12.5	-20
5/29	WAS [ 67 ]	ATL -3 WAS +3	163.5	ATL [ 73 ]	+6	+3	-23.5
5/26	ATL [ 79 ]	ATL -4.5 MIN +4.5	167.5	MIN [ 92 ]	-13	-17.5	+3.5
5/21	ATL [ 83 ]	ATL -5.5 DAL +5.5	169	DAL [ 78 ]	+5	-0.5	-8
5/18	PHO [ 88 ]	ATL -2 PHO +2	170	ATL [ 85 ]	-3	-5	+3
5/15	LAS [ 81 ]	ATL -4 LAS +4	162.5	ATL [ 92 ]	+11	+7	+10.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
8/18	ATL	ATL +8 CON -8	154.5	CON	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7/7	CON	ATL +14.5 CON -14.5	150.5	ATL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6/28	CON	ATL +9.5 CON -9.5	150	ATL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6/2	ATL	ATL +2.5 CON -2.5	159	CON	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7/22	ATL [ 78 ]	ATL -2 CON +2	167.5	CON [ 86 ]	-8	-10	-3.5	98.4	95.1	104.8	-9.8	164
7/20	CON [ 82 ]	ATL +5 CON -5	169	ATL [ 71 ]	-11	-6	-16	97.9	87.1	100.6	-13.5	153
6/15	CON [ 88 ]	ATL +9 CON -9	163.5	ATL [ 92 ]	+4	+13	+16.5	94.4	105.9	101.3	4.6	163
6/11	ATL [ 77 ]	ATL +3.5 CON -3.5	163	CON [ 89 ]	-12	-8.5	+3	105.2	87.8	101.5	-13.7	166

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

Sun (last 7 games)		Dream (last 6 games)
0.7 (3)	Win Percentage	0.38 (9)
28.57 (10)	ATS Win%	50 (8)
50 (6)	OU%	50 (10)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
102.8 (5)	Offensive Rating	97.54 (10)
95.18 (2)	Defensive Rating	101.03 (7)
92.71 (12)	Pace	93.85 (11)
1.49 (3)	A/TO Ratio	1.33 (4)

Four Factors

Sun (last 7 games)		Dream (last 6 games)
48.7 (5)	EFG%	45.23 (12)
48.33 (6)	EFG% Allowed	48.79 (8)
31.03 (2)	FT Rate	29.34 (3)
26.59 (7)	FT Rate Allowed	26.09 (6)
25.32 (6)	OReb%	25.36 (5)
21.53 (2)	OReb% Allowed	21.7 (3)
17.17 (2)	TO Rate	17.45 (3)
20.97 (4)	TO Rate Forced	17.1 (8)

Scoring

Sun (last 7 games)		Dream (last 6 games)
79.93 (6)	PPG	77 (11)
74 (1)	PPG Allowed	79.75 (5)
20.49 (2)	Pts off TO	16 (8)
13.12 (2)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (3)
13.52 (2)	2nd Chance Pts	13.52 (3)
9.02 (2)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	9.29 (3)
10.52 (6)	Fast Break Pts	8.48 (10)
8.42 (1)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	10.34 (5)

Inside the Arc

Sun (last 7 games)		Dream (last 6 games)
36.3 (4)	Paint Attempts	33.98 (6)
32.18 (3)	Paint Attempts Allowed	33.55 (4)
52.62 (4)	Paint FG%	48.79 (9)
53.07 (11)	Paint FG% Allowed	50.52 (7)
11.25 (6)	Mid-Range Attempts	14.73 (1)
12.65 (4)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	13.85 (9)
0.36 (7)	Mid-Range FG%	0.36 (9)
0.37 (5)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.38 (8)

Three Point Shooting

Sun (last 7 games)		Dream (last 6 games)
2.3 (8)	Corner 3 Attempts	2.95 (4)
4.05 (6)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	5.7 (11)
30.43 (7)	Corner 3 FG%	32.2 (5)
33.95 (6)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	35.53 (9)
15.8 (9)	ATB3 Attempts	16.2 (8)
14.05 (3)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	14.23 (4)
33.39 (6)	ATB3 FG%	31.02 (11)
29.89 (2)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	32.34 (5)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Sun 1h	4-2-1	4-0-1	0-0-0	0-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	2-0-0
Sun	7-0	5-0	0-0	2-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	2-0
Dream 1h	1-4-1	0-2-0	0-1-0	1-1-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Dream	4-2	1-1	1-0	2-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-1	1-1

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Sun 1h	3-4-0	3-2-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Sun	2-5-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	0-2-0
Dream 1h	1-5-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0
Dream	3-3-0	0-2-0	1-0-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Sun 1h	3-4-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0
Sun	3-3-1	1-3-1	0-0-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-1-1
Dream 1h	3-3-0	2-0-0	0-1-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0
Dream	3-3-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	1-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Sun 1h	1-6-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	0-2-0
Sun	4-3-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0
Dream 1h	2-4-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0
Dream	1-5-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	1-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	0-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Sun 1h	2-5-0	0-5-0	0-0-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0
Sun	4-3-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	1-1-0
Dream 1h	4-2-0	2-0-0	0-1-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	1-1-0
Dream	3-3-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	1-1-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Dream	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-1-0 (0%)	2-2-0 (50%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)
Sun	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-3-0 (25%)	1-2-0 (33.3%)	0-0-0 (-)