I’m all about closing line value. If I’m not beating the number, the process wasn't right, win or lose.
I start with my models, each profitable on it's own, but more powerful when there is agreement. Then I try to do a post-mortem for why a play might lose. What are the models not capturing and do the surrounding narratives matter (usually not, but sometimes they can)? No locks, no hype. Just good numbers.
ROI = net units / units risked on wins and losses. A win with no price on file is paid at -110. Futures and cash-outs are not counted.
CLV = closing line value, in points of win probability: the market's closing price on the bet's side (the books' last prices before the game, vig left in), carried to the bet's line at measured rates when the line moved, minus the bet price's own implied probability. Taking the closing number at the closing price is 0; above 0 means the bet beat the close. Teasers count as 0. Other parlays, props, live bets and bets with no price have no CLV.
