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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

My model gives the Jets (-1.5) a 54.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (45) around 59.3% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Texans Situational Notes

Jets Situational Notes

Texans Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/10HOU
(10d rest)		HOU -1.5
DET +1.5
50DET
(7d rest)		---
10/31NYJ
(4d rest)		HOU +1.5
NYJ -1.5
45HOU
(4d rest)		---
10/27HOU [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		HOU -4
IND +4
48IND [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-4-48
10/20GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		HOU +1.5
GB -1.5
48.5HOU [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1.5-48.5
10/13NE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		HOU -4.5
NE +4.5
44HOU [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-4.5-44
10/6HOU [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		HOU -1
BUF +1
48BUF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1-48
9/29HOU [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		HOU -3.5
JAX +3.5
46JAX [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0-3.5-46
9/22MIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		HOU -2
MIN +2
46HOU [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-2-46
9/15HOU [ 19 ]
(7d rest)		HOU -6.5
CHI +6.5
45.5CHI [ 13 ]
(7d rest)		+6-0.5-13.5
9/8IND [ 27 ]
(0d rest)		HOU -3
IND +3
48.5HOU [ 29 ]
(0d rest)		+2-1+7.5

Jets Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/10ARI
(7d rest)		NYJ -2.5
ARI +2.5
46.5NYJ
(10d rest)		---
10/31NYJ
(4d rest)		NYJ -1.5
HOU +1.5
45HOU
(4d rest)		---
10/27NE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ -4.5
NE +4.5
41.5NYJ [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-4.5-41.5
10/20PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ -1
PIT +1
43NYJ [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0-1-43
10/14NYJ [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		NYJ -1.5
BUF +1.5
47.5BUF [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0-1.5-47.5
10/6MIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ -4
MIN +4
42.5NYJ [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-4-42.5
9/29NYJ [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		NYJ -7
DEN +7
37.5DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-7-37.5
9/19NYJ [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		NYJ -6
NE +6
38.5NE [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		0-6-38.5
9/15TEN [ 17 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ -3.5
TEN +3.5
41NYJ [ 24 ]
(6d rest)		+7+3.50
9/9SF [ 32 ]
(0d rest)		NYJ +3.5
SF -3.5
43NYJ [ 19 ]
(0d rest)		-13-9.5+8

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
10/31/24
Week 9		NYJ
(4d rest)		NYJ -1.5
HOU +1.5
45HOU
(4d rest)		---NYJ
HOU		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

12/10/23
Week 14		NYJ [ 30 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ +3
HOU -3
33HOU [ 6 ]
(7d rest)		+24+27+3NYJ
HOU		380
176		79
81		301
95		69
52		5.5
3.4		12.7
63.3		0
0		1
2
11/28/21
Week 12		HOU [ 14 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ +2.5
HOU -2.5
44.5NYJ [ 21 ]
(7d rest)		+7+9.5-9.5NYJ
HOU		302
254		157
96		145
158		65
56		4.6
4.5		14.4
21.6		1
1		1
1


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Texans 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Texans 2-01-00-01-00-00-00-0
Jets 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Jets 1-10-00-01-00-10-01-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Texans 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Texans 0-2-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Jets 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Jets 1-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Texans 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Texans 1-1-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Jets 1h1-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-0
Jets 1-0-10-0-00-0-00-0-11-0-00-0-00-0-1

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Texans 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Texans 1-7-00-4-00-0-01-2-00-1-00-1-00-0-0
Jets 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Jets 1-7-00-3-00-0-01-2-00-1-00-1-01-1-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Texans 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Texans 1-7-00-4-00-0-01-2-00-1-00-1-00-0-0
Jets 1h2-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Jets 1-7-00-3-00-0-00-3-01-0-00-1-00-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Jets0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-2 (-)1-0-3 (100%)0-0-1 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Texans0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-3 (-)0-2-3 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)