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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the Ravens (-3.5) a 51.7% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (46) around 58.8% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Bengals Situational Notes

Ravens Situational Notes

Bengals Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/17LAC
(7d rest)		CIN -1.5
LAC +1.5
45CIN
(10d rest)		---
11/7BAL
(4d rest)		CIN +3.5
BAL -3.5
46CIN
(4d rest)		---
11/3CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -7
LV +7
45LV [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-7-45
10/27CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -2
PHI +2
47.5PHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-2-47.5
10/20CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN 0
CLE 0
46.5CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		00-46.5
10/13NYG [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -5.5
NYG +5.5
45CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-5.5-45
10/6CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -1.5
BAL +1.5
46.5BAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1.5-46.5
9/29CAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -5.5
CAR +5.5
43CIN [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0-5.5-43
9/23CIN [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		CIN -7.5
WAS +7.5
47WAS [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0-7.5-47
9/15KC [ 26 ]
(10d rest)		CIN +6.5
KC -6.5
48CIN [ 25 ]
(7d rest)		-1+5.5+3

Ravens Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/17PIT
(7d rest)		BAL -2.5
PIT +2.5
43BAL
(10d rest)		---
11/7BAL
(4d rest)		BAL -3.5
CIN +3.5
46CIN
(4d rest)		---
11/3BAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		BAL -10.5
DEN +10.5
43DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-10.5-43
10/27CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		BAL 0
CLE 0
45.5BAL [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		00-45.5
10/21TB [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		BAL -4
TB +4
46BAL [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0-4-46
10/13BAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		BAL -8.5
WAS +8.5
46.5WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-8.5-46.5
10/6CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		BAL +1.5
CIN -1.5
46.5BAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1.5-46.5
9/29BAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		BAL -3
BUF +3
45.5BUF [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0-3-45.5
9/22DAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		BAL -1
DAL +1
48.5BAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1-48.5
9/15BAL [ 23 ]
(10d rest)		BAL -9
LV +9
42.5LV [ 26 ]
(7d rest)		-3-12+6.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
11/7/24
Week 10		BAL
(4d rest)		BAL -3.5
CIN +3.5
46CIN
(4d rest)		---BAL
CIN		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

10/6/24
Week 5		CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		BAL +1.5
CIN -1.5
46.5BAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1.5-46.5BAL
CIN		0
0		0
0		0
0
NAN
NAN		NAN
NAN

11/16/23
Week 11		BAL [ 34 ]
(4d rest)		BAL -4
CIN +4
46CIN [ 20 ]
(4d rest)		+14+10+8BAL
CIN		421
305		157
136		264
169		62
62		6.8
4.9		12.4
21.1		0
0		1
0
9/17/23
Week 2		CIN [ 24 ]
(7d rest)		BAL +3.5
CIN -3.5
45.5BAL [ 27 ]
(7d rest)		+3+6.5+5.5BAL
CIN		415
288		178
66		237
222		73
58		5.7
5		15.4
17.3		1
0		0
0
1/15/23
Week 19		CIN [ 24 ]
(7d rest)		BAL +7.5
CIN -7.5
40BAL [ 17 ]
(7d rest)		-7+0.5+1BAL
CIN		381
260		155
51		226
209		67
55		5.7
4.7		22.4
15.9		0
1		2
2
1/8/23
Week 18		CIN [ 27 ]
(6d rest)		BAL +11.5
CIN -11.5
39.5BAL [ 16 ]
(7d rest)		-11+0.5+3.5BAL
CIN		396
270		110
55		286
215		78
66		5.1
4.1		24.8
14.7		0
2		2
1
10/9/22
Week 5		BAL [ 19 ]
(7d rest)		BAL -3.5
CIN +3.5
47.5CIN [ 17 ]
(10d rest)		+2-1.5-11.5BAL
CIN		329
318		155
101		174
217		65
60		5.1
5.3		17.3
19.4		1
1		1
0
12/26/21
Week 16		CIN [ 41 ]
(7d rest)		BAL +7
CIN -7
43BAL [ 21 ]
(7d rest)		-20-13+19BAL
CIN		343
602		39
77		304
525		57
73		6
8.2		16.3
8.4		0
1		2
0
10/24/21
Week 7		BAL [ 17 ]
(7d rest)		BAL -6
CIN +6
46CIN [ 41 ]
(7d rest)		-24-30+12BAL
CIN		411
527		115
111		296
416		72
65		5.7
8.1		24.2
10		1
0		1
1


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bengals 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Bengals 0-20-10-00-00-10-00-1
Ravens 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-01-0-00-0-0
Ravens 0-20-10-00-00-10-10-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bengals 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Bengals 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Ravens 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-0
Ravens 0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bengals 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Bengals 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Ravens 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-0
Ravens 2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bengals 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Bengals 1-8-00-5-00-0-00-2-01-0-00-0-01-1-0
Ravens 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-0
Ravens 0-9-00-4-00-0-00-2-00-2-00-2-00-1-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bengals 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Bengals 0-9-00-5-00-0-00-2-00-1-00-0-00-2-0
Ravens 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-1-00-0-0
Ravens 2-7-01-3-00-0-00-2-01-1-01-1-00-1-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Ravens0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-3 (-)0-0-2 (-)0-1-1 (0%)0-0-1 (-)
Bengals0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-3 (-)0-0-2 (-)0-1-2 (0%)0-0-0 (-)