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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the Eagles (-7) a 40.75% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (45.5) around 59.5% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Commanders Situational Notes

Eagles Situational Notes

Commanders Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/24WAS
(10d rest)		WAS +3.5
DAL -3.5
46DAL
(6d rest)		---
11/14PHI
(4d rest)		WAS +7
PHI -7
45.5WAS
(4d rest)		---
11/10WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		WAS +1
PIT -1
43.5PIT [ 0 ]
(13d rest)		0+1-43.5
11/3NYG [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		WAS +1
NYG -1
42WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1-42
10/27WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		WAS +2.5
CHI -2.5
44.5CHI [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0+2.5-44.5
10/20WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		WAS -3
CAR +3
42CAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-3-42
10/13BAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		WAS +8.5
BAL -8.5
46.5WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+8.5-46.5
10/6WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		WAS +3.5
CLE -3.5
43.5CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+3.5-43.5
9/29ARI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		WAS +3
ARI -3
49.5WAS [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0+3-49.5
9/23CIN [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		WAS +7.5
CIN -7.5
47WAS [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0+7.5-47

Eagles Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/24LAR
(7d rest)		PHI 0
LAR 0
47PHI
(10d rest)		---
11/14PHI
(4d rest)		PHI -7
WAS +7
45.5WAS
(4d rest)		---
11/10DAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PHI +1
DAL -1
48PHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1-48
11/3PHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PHI -4.5
JAX +4.5
47JAX [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-4.5-47
10/27CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PHI +2
CIN -2
47.5PHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+2-47.5
10/20NYG [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PHI -5.5
NYG +5.5
44PHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-5.5-44
10/13PHI [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		PHI -3
CLE +3
45.5CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-3-45.5
9/29TB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PHI -3
TB +3
47.5PHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-3-47.5
9/22NO [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PHI +2.5
NO -2.5
49.5PHI [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0+2.5-49.5
9/16PHI [ 21 ]
(10d rest)		PHI -5.5
ATL +5.5
46.5ATL [ 22 ]
(8d rest)		-1-6.5-3.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
12/22/24
Week 16		WAS
(7d rest)		PHI -3.5
WAS +3.5
45PHI
(7d rest)		---PHI
WAS		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

11/14/24
Week 11		PHI
(4d rest)		PHI -7
WAS +7
45.5WAS
(4d rest)		---PHI
WAS		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

10/29/23
Week 8		WAS [ 31 ]
(7d rest)		PHI -7
WAS +7
42PHI [ 38 ]
(7d rest)		+70+27PHI
WAS		378
481		59
84		319
397		63
70		6
6.9		9.9
12.2		1
0		2
1
10/1/23
Week 4		PHI [ 34 ]
(6d rest)		PHI -8.5
WAS +8.5
43WAS [ 31 ]
(7d rest)		+3-5.5+22PHI
WAS		423
397		104
107		319
290		71
75		6
5.3		12.4
13.6		0
0		1
2
11/14/22
Week 10		PHI [ 21 ]
(11d rest)		PHI -11
WAS +11
43WAS [ 32 ]
(8d rest)		-11-22+10PHI
WAS		269
363		94
152		175
211		47
85		5.7
4.3		12.8
8.4		1
1		3
2
9/25/22
Week 3		WAS [ 8 ]
(7d rest)		PHI -6
WAS +6
47.5PHI [ 24 ]
(6d rest)		+16+10-15.5PHI
WAS		412
298		72
87		340
211		69
74		6
4		17.2
51.5		0
0		1
2
1/2/22
Week 17		WAS [ 16 ]
(7d rest)		PHI -6
WAS +6
45PHI [ 20 ]
(7d rest)		+4-2-9PHI
WAS		332
341		118
94		214
247		63
64		5.3
5.3		16.6
20.8		1
0		0
0
12/21/21
Week 15		PHI [ 27 ]
(2d rest)		PHI -8
WAS +8
40.5WAS [ 17 ]
(2d rest)		+10+2+3.5PHI
WAS		534
257		238
63		296
194		72
55		7.4
4.7		19.8
31.4		0
1		2
2
12/19/21
Week 15		PHI [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		PHI 0
WAS 0
0WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		000PHI
WAS		0
0		0
0		0
0		0
0		NAN
NAN		NAN
NAN



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Commanders 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Commanders 1-11-00-00-00-10-00-0
Eagles 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Eagles 1-10-10-00-00-00-10-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Commanders 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Commanders 1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Eagles 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Eagles 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Commanders 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Commanders 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Eagles 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Eagles 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Commanders 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Commanders 1-9-00-2-00-3-00-0-01-4-00-1-00-3-0
Eagles 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Eagles 1-8-00-3-00-0-00-2-00-3-00-2-00-1-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Commanders 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Commanders 1-9-00-2-00-3-00-0-01-4-00-1-00-3-0
Eagles 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Eagles 2-7-01-2-00-0-00-2-00-3-01-1-00-1-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Eagles0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-1 (-)1-0-2 (100%)0-1-4 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Commanders0-0-0 (-)0-0-2 (-)0-1-3 (0%)1-0-2 (100%)0-0-1 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)