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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the Browns (-3) a 50.7% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (43.5) around 59.9% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Steelers Situational Notes

Browns Situational Notes

Steelers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/1CIN
(14d rest)		PIT +5.5
CIN -5.5
44.5PIT
(10d rest)		---
11/21CLE
(4d rest)		PIT +3
CLE -3
43.5PIT
(4d rest)		---
11/17PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT +2.5
BAL -2.5
43BAL [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0+2.5-43
11/10WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT -1
WAS +1
43.5PIT [ 0 ]
(13d rest)		0-1-43.5
10/28PIT [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		PIT -4.5
NYG +4.5
42.5NYG [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0-4.5-42.5
10/20PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT +1
NYJ -1
43NYJ [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0+1-43
10/13LV [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT 0
LV 0
42PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		00-42
10/6PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT +2.5
DAL -2.5
43DAL [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0+2.5-43
9/29IND [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT +1
IND -1
40.5PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1-40.5
9/22PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT -1.5
LAC +1.5
36LAC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1.5-36

Browns Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/2DEN
(8d rest)		CLE -3
DEN +3
43CLE
(11d rest)		---
11/21CLE
(4d rest)		CLE -3
PIT +3
43.5PIT
(4d rest)		---
11/17NO [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE -2.5
NO +2.5
42CLE [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0-2.5-42
11/3CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE -4
LAC +4
43.5LAC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-4-43.5
10/27CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE 0
BAL 0
45.5BAL [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		00-45.5
10/20CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE 0
CIN 0
46.5CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		00-46.5
10/13PHI [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		CLE +3
PHI -3
45.5CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+3-45.5
10/6WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE -3.5
WAS +3.5
43.5CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-3.5-43.5
9/29LV [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE -1
LV +1
39.5CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1-39.5
9/22CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE -6.5
NYG +6.5
39NYG [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-6.5-39

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
12/8/24
Week 14		PIT
(7d rest)		CLE +1
PIT -1
43.5CLE
(6d rest)		---CLE
PIT		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

11/21/24
Week 12		CLE
(4d rest)		CLE -3
PIT +3
43.5PIT
(4d rest)		---CLE
PIT		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

11/19/23
Week 11		CLE [ 13 ]
(7d rest)		CLE -2.5
PIT +2.5
34.5PIT [ 10 ]
(7d rest)		+3+0.5-11.5CLE
PIT		261
278		96
172		165
106		75
58		3.5
4.8		20.1
26.1		0
1		0
0
9/18/23
Week 2		PIT [ 26 ]
(8d rest)		CLE -2.5
PIT +2.5
38.5CLE [ 22 ]
(8d rest)		-4-6.5+9.5CLE
PIT		433
277		198
55		235
222		84
55		5.2
5		19.7
16.7		1
1		4
1
1/8/23
Week 18		PIT [ 28 ]
(7d rest)		CLE +2.5
PIT -2.5
39.5CLE [ 14 ]
(7d rest)		-14-11.5+2.5CLE
PIT		364
339		134
144		230
195		58
69		6.3
4.9		26
13		0
2		1
3
9/22/22
Week 3		CLE [ 29 ]
(4d rest)		CLE -4
PIT +4
37.5PIT [ 17 ]
(4d rest)		+12+8+8.5CLE
PIT		391
311		171
104		220
207		72
57		5.4
5.5		13.5
23		0
0		0
2
1/3/22
Week 17		PIT [ 26 ]
(8d rest)		CLE +2
PIT -2
42CLE [ 14 ]
(9d rest)		-12-10-2CLE
PIT		278
313		93
190		185
123		67
83		4.1
3.8		19.9
10.7		1
2		0
2
10/31/21
Week 8		CLE [ 10 ]
(10d rest)		CLE -4.5
PIT +4.5
43PIT [ 15 ]
(14d rest)		-5-9.5-18CLE
PIT		321
381		96
115		225
266		59
70		5.4
5.4		32.1
21.4		0
0		1
1


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Steelers 1h1-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Steelers 2-00-00-01-01-00-00-0
Browns 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 1-10-10-00-01-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Steelers 1h2-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Steelers 2-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Steelers 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Steelers 0-2-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Steelers 1h0-1-10-0-00-0-00-0-10-1-00-0-00-0-0
Steelers 0-10-00-2-00-3-00-2-00-2-00-2-00-2-0
Browns 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 0-10-00-3-00-0-00-3-00-2-00-2-00-1-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Steelers 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Steelers 0-10-00-2-00-3-00-2-00-2-00-2-00-2-0
Browns 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 1-9-01-2-00-0-00-3-00-2-00-2-00-1-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Browns0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-1 (100%)0-1-3 (0%)0-0-4 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Steelers0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-2 (100%)0-0-5 (-)1-0-1 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)