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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the Lions (-4.5) a 51.7% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (50) around 59.1% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Bears Situational Notes

Lions Situational Notes

Bears Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/8SF
(7d rest)		CHI +6.5
SF -6.5
47.5CHI
(10d rest)		---
11/28DET
(4d rest)		CHI +4.5
DET -4.5
50CHI
(4d rest)		---
11/24CHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CHI -2.5
MIN +2.5
45MIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-2.5-45
11/17CHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CHI -1
GB +1
44.5GB [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0-1-44.5
11/10CHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CHI -6
NE +6
43NE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-6-43
11/3ARI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CHI -1
ARI +1
46.5CHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1-46.5
10/27WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CHI -2.5
WAS +2.5
44.5CHI [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0-2.5-44.5
10/13JAX [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CHI 0
JAX 0
46.5CHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		00-46.5
10/6CHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CHI -5.5
CAR +5.5
42CAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-5.5-42
9/29CHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CHI -3
LAR +3
42LAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-3-42

Lions Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/5DET
(7d rest)		DET -3
GB +3
48GB
(7d rest)		---
11/28DET
(4d rest)		DET -4.5
CHI +4.5
50CHI
(4d rest)		---
11/24IND [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET -2
IND +2
48.5DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-2-48.5
11/17DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET -4
JAX +4
50JAX [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-4-50
11/10HOU [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		DET +1.5
HOU -1.5
50DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1.5-50
11/3GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET +1
GB -1
49DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1-49
10/27DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET -7.5
TEN +7.5
47.5TEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-7.5-47.5
10/20MIN [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		DET -3.5
MIN +3.5
48DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-3.5-48
10/13DAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET +1
DAL -1
48.5DET [ 0 ]
(13d rest)		0+1-48.5
9/30DET [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		DET -4
SEA +4
48.5SEA [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0-4-48.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
12/22/24
Week 16		CHI
(6d rest)		DET -1.5
CHI +1.5
47DET
(7d rest)		---DET
CHI		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

11/28/24
Week 13		DET
(4d rest)		DET -4.5
CHI +4.5
50CHI
(4d rest)		---DET
CHI		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

12/10/23
Week 14		CHI [ 28 ]
(13d rest)		DET -3
CHI +3
44.5DET [ 13 ]
(7d rest)		-15-18-3.5DET
CHI		301
365		140
142		161
223		63
69		4.8
5.3		23.2
10.8		0
2		2
1
11/19/23
Week 11		DET [ 31 ]
(7d rest)		DET -8
CHI +8
48CHI [ 26 ]
(10d rest)		+5-3+9DET
CHI		351
352		115
183		236
169		59
75		5.9
4.7		11.3
13.5		0
3		1
2
1/1/23
Week 17		DET [ 41 ]
(8d rest)		DET -4
CHI +4
52CHI [ 10 ]
(8d rest)		+31+27-1DET
CHI		520
275		265
200		255
75		72
51		7.2
5.4		12.7
52		1
0		0
1
11/13/22
Week 10		CHI [ 30 ]
(7d rest)		DET +3
CHI -3
48DET [ 31 ]
(7d rest)		+1+4+13DET
CHI		331
425		95
258		236
167		60
59		5.5
7.2		10.7
11		1
0		1
1
11/25/21
Week 12		DET [ 14 ]
(4d rest)		DET +3
CHI -3
41CHI [ 16 ]
(4d rest)		-2+1-11DET
CHI		247
385		76
68		171
317		45
73		5.5
5.3		17.6
15.4		1
0		3
1
10/3/21
Week 4		CHI [ 24 ]
(7d rest)		DET +3
CHI -3
42DET [ 14 ]
(7d rest)		-10-7-4DET
CHI		389
397		90
188		299
209		67
58		5.8
6.8		27.8
16.2		1
0		3
1


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bears 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Bears 1-11-00-00-00-10-00-0
Lions 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 1-11-10-00-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bears 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Bears 2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bears 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bears 0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 1h0-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 0-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bears 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bears 1-10-01-5-00-0-00-2-00-2-00-1-00-1-0
Lions 1h0-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 0-11-00-5-00-0-00-3-00-3-00-1-00-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bears 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bears 0-11-00-6-00-0-00-2-00-2-00-1-00-1-0
Lions 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 0-11-00-5-00-0-00-3-00-3-00-1-00-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Lions0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-4 (-)1-0-4 (100%)0-1-1 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Bears0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-4 (-)1-0-5 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)