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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the Lions (-3) a 53.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (48) around 60.04% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Packers Situational Notes

Lions Situational Notes

Packers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/15SEA
(7d rest)		GB -1
SEA +1
47GB
(10d rest)		---
12/5DET
(7d rest)		GB +3
DET -3
48GB
(7d rest)		---
11/28GB [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		GB -3
MIA +3
48.5MIA [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		0-3-48.5
11/24GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		GB +2.5
SF -2.5
47SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+2.5-47
11/17CHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		GB +1
CHI -1
44.5GB [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0+1-44.5
11/3GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		GB -1
DET +1
49DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1-49
10/27JAX [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		GB 0
JAX 0
46GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		00-46
10/20GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		GB -1.5
HOU +1.5
48.5HOU [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1.5-48.5
10/13GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		GB -4.5
ARI +4.5
46.5ARI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-4.5-46.5
10/6LAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		GB -1
LAR +1
48.5GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1-48.5

Lions Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/15DET
(10d rest)		DET -2.5
BUF +2.5
50.5BUF
(7d rest)		---
12/5DET
(7d rest)		DET -3
GB +3
48GB
(7d rest)		---
11/28DET [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		DET -4.5
CHI +4.5
50CHI [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		0-4.5-50
11/24IND [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET -2
IND +2
48.5DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-2-48.5
11/17DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET -4
JAX +4
50JAX [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-4-50
11/10HOU [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		DET +1.5
HOU -1.5
50DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1.5-50
11/3GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET +1
GB -1
49DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1-49
10/27DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET -7.5
TEN +7.5
47.5TEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-7.5-47.5
10/20MIN [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		DET -3.5
MIN +3.5
48DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-3.5-48
10/13DAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET +1
DAL -1
48.5DET [ 0 ]
(13d rest)		0+1-48.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
12/5/24
Week 14		DET
(7d rest)		DET -3
GB +3
48GB
(7d rest)		---DET
GB		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

11/3/24
Week 9		GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DET +1
GB -1
49DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1-49DET
GB		0
0		0
0		0
0
NAN
NAN		NAN
NAN

11/23/23
Week 12		DET [ 22 ]
(4d rest)		DET -8.5
GB +8.5
47GB [ 29 ]
(4d rest)		-7-15.5+4DET
GB		472
377		140
109		332
268		78
56		6.1
6.7		21.5
16.3		0
0		3
0
9/28/23
Week 4		GB [ 20 ]
(4d rest)		DET -2.5
GB +2.5
45DET [ 34 ]
(4d rest)		+14+11.5+9DET
GB		421
273		211
27		210
246		75
55		5.6
5		12.4
21.1		2
1		0
2
1/8/23
Week 18		GB [ 16 ]
(7d rest)		DET +4
GB -4
48DET [ 20 ]
(7d rest)		+4+8-12DET
GB		328
308		104
103		224
205		63
61		5.2
5		16.4
20.5		1
0		1
1
11/6/22
Week 9		DET [ 15 ]
(7d rest)		DET +4
GB -4
49.5GB [ 9 ]
(7d rest)		+6+10-25.5DET
GB		254
397		117
106		137
291		57
70		4.5
5.7		16.9
28.2		3
1		0
2
1/9/22
Week 18		DET [ 37 ]
(7d rest)		DET +3.5
GB -3.5
45GB [ 30 ]
(7d rest)		+7+10.5+22DET
GB		412
394		99
122		313
272		62
67		6.6
5.9		11.1
13.7		2
0		0
2
9/20/21
Week 2		GB [ 35 ]
(8d rest)		DET +11.5
GB -11.5
49.5DET [ 17 ]
(8d rest)		-18-6.5+2.5DET
GB		354
351		108
96		246
255		57
61		6.2
5.8		20.8
10.1		0
1		2
0


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Packers 1h2-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Packers 1-10-01-00-00-01-00-0
Lions 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 1-11-10-00-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Packers 1h2-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Packers 1-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Lions 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Packers 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Packers 1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Lions 1h0-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 0-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Packers 1h2-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Packers 1-11-00-5-00-2-00-1-00-2-00-2-00-0-0
Lions 1h0-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 0-12-00-6-00-0-00-3-00-3-00-1-00-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Packers 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Packers 1-11-00-5-00-2-00-1-00-2-00-2-00-0-0
Lions 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Lions 0-12-00-6-00-0-00-3-00-3-00-1-00-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Lions0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-4 (-)1-0-5 (100%)0-1-1 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Packers0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-2 (100%)0-1-5 (0%)0-0-3 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)