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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the 49ers (-7) a 40.72% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (47) around 60.16% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Rams Situational Notes

49ers Situational Notes

Rams Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/22NYJ
(7d rest)		LAR +3
NYJ -3
47.5LAR
(10d rest)		---
12/12SF
(4d rest)		LAR +7
SF -7
47LAR
(4d rest)		---
12/8LAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		LAR 0
BUF 0
48BUF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		00-48
12/1NO [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		LAR -1.5
NO +1.5
46.5LAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1.5-46.5
11/24LAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		LAR 0
PHI 0
47PHI [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		00-47
11/17NE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		LAR -4.5
NE +4.5
43.5LAR [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0-4.5-43.5
11/11LAR [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		LAR -1
MIA +1
47.5MIA [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0-1-47.5
11/3SEA [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		LAR -1.5
SEA +1.5
46.5LAR [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0-1.5-46.5
10/24LAR [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		LAR -4.5
MIN +4.5
45.5MIN [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		0-4.5-45.5
10/20LAR [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		LAR -5.5
LV +5.5
46LV [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-5.5-46

49ers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/22MIA
(7d rest)		SF -2
MIA +2
49SF
(10d rest)		---
12/12SF
(4d rest)		SF -7
LAR +7
47LAR
(4d rest)		---
12/8SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		SF -6.5
CHI +6.5
47.5CHI [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0-6.5-47.5
12/1BUF [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		SF -1.5
BUF +1.5
47SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1.5-47
11/24GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		SF -2.5
GB +2.5
47SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-2.5-47
11/17SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		SF -8.5
SEA +8.5
46.5SEA [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0-8.5-46.5
11/10TB [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		SF -6
TB +6
46.5SF [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0-6-46.5
10/27SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		SF -5.5
DAL +5.5
46DAL [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0-5.5-46
10/20SF [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		SF -1.5
KC +1.5
49KC [ 0 ]
(13d rest)		0-1.5-49
10/10SEA [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		SF -5.5
SEA +5.5
46.5SF [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		0-5.5-46.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
12/12/24
Week 15		SF
(4d rest)		SF -7
LAR +7
47LAR
(4d rest)		---SF
LAR		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

9/22/24
Week 3		LAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		SF -6.5
LAR +6.5
43.5SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-6.5-43.5SF
LAR		0
0		0
0		0
0
NAN
NAN		NAN
NAN

1/7/24
Week 18		SF [ 20 ]
(7d rest)		SF -4
LAR +4
40LAR [ 21 ]
(7d rest)		-1-5+1SF
LAR		314
272		125
109		189
163		59
62		5.3
4.4		15.7
15		1
0		2
0
9/17/23
Week 2		LAR [ 23 ]
(7d rest)		SF -7
LAR +7
45SF [ 30 ]
(7d rest)		+70+8SF
LAR		365
396		159
89		206
307		57
81		6.4
4.9		12.2
15.9		2
0		2
0
10/30/22
Week 8		LAR [ 14 ]
(14d rest)		SF +1
LAR -1
42SF [ 31 ]
(7d rest)		+17+18+3SF
LAR		380
243		111
56		269
187		53
56		7.2
4.3		12.3
27.1		0
0		1
0
10/3/22
Week 4		SF [ 24 ]
(8d rest)		SF -2
LAR +2
42LAR [ 9 ]
(8d rest)		+15+13-9SF
LAR		327
311		88
57		239
254		51
76		6.4
4.1		13.6
36.3		1
0		1
1
1/30/22
Week 21		LAR [ 20 ]
(7d rest)		SF +3.5
LAR -3.5
45.5SF [ 17 ]
(8d rest)		-3+0.5-8.5SF
LAR		282
407		50
70		232
337		51
79		5.5
5.2		16.6
14.1		1
1		0
0
1/9/22
Week 18		LAR [ 24 ]
(7d rest)		SF +3.5
LAR -3.5
45.5SF [ 27 ]
(7d rest)		+3+6.5+5.5SF
LAR		475
302		135
64		340
238		69
65		6.9
4.6		17.6
19.8		2
2		1
0
11/15/21
Week 10		SF [ 31 ]
(8d rest)		SF +3.5
LAR -3.5
50LAR [ 10 ]
(8d rest)		+21+24.5-9SF
LAR		338
297		156
52		182
245		65
55		5.2
5.4		10.9
33.8		2
0		0
0


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Rams 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-0
Rams 0-20-00-00-00-20-00-0
Fortyniners 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0
Fortyniners 1-11-00-00-10-00-00-1

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Rams 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-0
Rams 0-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-0
Fortyniners 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0
Fortyniners 1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Rams 1h1-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-0
Rams 1-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-0
Fortyniners 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0
Fortyniners 1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Rams 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-0
Rams 0-13-00-3-00-2-00-3-00-3-00-2-00-3-0
Fortyniners 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0
Fortyniners 1-12-01-6-00-0-00-6-00-0-00-1-00-7-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Rams 1h1-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-0
Rams 1-12-00-3-00-2-00-3-01-2-00-2-00-3-0
Fortyniners 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-0
Fortyniners 1-12-00-7-00-0-01-5-00-0-00-1-01-6-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Fortyniners0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-2 (-)1-1-6 (50%)0-0-3 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Rams0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-2 (0%)0-1-6 (0%)0-0-3 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)