Already a baller? You're in the right place -- you just need to log in. Not a baller yet, but want access to the world's best dashboard for breaking down a game? Awesome. We have a big blue button for that, too:


Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the Bengals (-4) a 48.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (45.5) around 60.06% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Browns Situational Notes

Bengals Situational Notes

Browns Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/29CLE
(10d rest)		CLE -2
MIA +2
44.5MIA
(7d rest)		---
12/19CIN
(4d rest)		CLE +4
CIN -4
45.5CLE
(4d rest)		---
12/15CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE +2.5
KC -2.5
46.5KC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+2.5-46.5
12/8PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE +1
PIT -1
43.5CLE [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0+1-43.5
12/2DEN [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		CLE -3
DEN +3
43CLE [ 0 ]
(11d rest)		0-3-43
11/21CLE [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		CLE -3
PIT +3
43.5PIT [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		0-3-43.5
11/17NO [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE -2.5
NO +2.5
42CLE [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0-2.5-42
11/3CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE -4
LAC +4
43.5LAC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-4-43.5
10/27CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE 0
BAL 0
45.5BAL [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		00-45.5
10/20CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CLE 0
CIN 0
46.5CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		00-46.5

Bengals Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/29CIN
(10d rest)		CIN -8
DEN +8
45.5DEN
(7d rest)		---
12/19CIN
(4d rest)		CIN -4
CLE +4
45.5CLE
(4d rest)		---
12/15TEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -3.5
TEN +3.5
46CIN [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0-3.5-46
12/9DAL [ 0 ]
(11d rest)		CIN +1.5
DAL -1.5
48.5CIN [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0+1.5-48.5
12/1CIN [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		CIN -5.5
PIT +5.5
44.5PIT [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0-5.5-44.5
11/17LAC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -1.5
LAC +1.5
45CIN [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0-1.5-45
11/7BAL [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		CIN +3.5
BAL -3.5
46CIN [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		0+3.5-46
11/3CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -7
LV +7
45LV [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-7-45
10/27CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -2
PHI +2
47.5PHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-2-47.5
10/20CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN 0
CLE 0
46.5CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		00-46.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
12/19/24
Week 16		CIN
(4d rest)		CIN -4
CLE +4
45.5CLE
(4d rest)		---CIN
CLE		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

10/20/24
Week 7		CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		CIN 0
CLE 0
46.5CIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		00-46.5CIN
CLE		0
0		0
0		0
0
NAN
NAN		NAN
NAN

1/7/24
Week 18		CIN [ 31 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -7.5
CLE +7.5
37CLE [ 14 ]
(10d rest)		+17+9.5+8CIN
CLE		359
270		183
104		176
166		62
53		5.8
5.1		11.6
25.6		2
1		1
0
9/10/23
Week 1		CLE [ 24 ]
(0d rest)		CIN -1
CLE +1
46.5CIN [ 3 ]
(0d rest)		-21-22-19.5CIN
CLE		157
360		75
206		82
154		56
75		2.8
4.8		52.3
6.5		1
0		0
2
12/11/22
Week 14		CIN [ 23 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -4
CLE +4
47CLE [ 10 ]
(7d rest)		+13+9-14CIN
CLE		375
347		136
71		239
276		62
71		6
4.9		16.3
37.5		1
1		0
0
10/31/22
Week 8		CLE [ 32 ]
(8d rest)		CIN -3.5
CLE +3.5
45CIN [ 13 ]
(8d rest)		-19-22.50CIN
CLE		268
450		36
172		232
278		51
71		5.3
6.3		20.6
8.4		1
1		1
1
1/9/22
Week 18		CLE [ 21 ]
(6d rest)		CIN +6
CLE -6
38CIN [ 16 ]
(7d rest)		-5+1-1CIN
CLE		215
381		79
205		136
176		52
66		4.1
5.8		13.4
10.2		1
0		1
2
11/7/21
Week 9		CIN [ 16 ]
(7d rest)		CIN -2
CLE +2
47.5CLE [ 41 ]
(7d rest)		-25-27+9.5CIN
CLE		373
371		85
153		288
218		71
49		5.3
7.6		23.3
9.1		0
2		4
2


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Browns 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 1-10-10-00-01-00-00-0
Bengals 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Bengals 0-20-10-00-00-10-00-1

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Browns 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bengals 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Bengals 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Browns 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Bengals 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Bengals 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Browns 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 0-14-00-4-00-1-00-4-00-3-00-3-00-2-0
Bengals 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Bengals 1-13-00-6-00-0-00-4-01-2-00-2-01-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Browns 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Browns 1-13-01-3-00-1-00-4-00-3-00-3-00-2-0
Bengals 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Bengals 0-14-00-6-00-0-00-4-00-3-00-2-00-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Bengals0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-1 (100%)0-0-5 (-)0-0-3 (-)0-1-3 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Browns0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-2 (100%)0-1-4 (0%)0-0-6 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)