Already a baller? You're in the right place -- you just need to log in. Not a baller yet, but want access to the world's best dashboard for breaking down a game? Awesome. We have a big blue button for that, too:


Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

My model gives the Steelers (+4.5) a 62.07% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over the total (41.5) around 58.9% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Chiefs Situational Notes

Steelers Situational Notes

Chiefs Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
1/5DEN
(7d rest)		KC -4
DEN +4
42.5KC
(11d rest)		---
12/25PIT
(4d rest)		KC -4.5
PIT +4.5
41.5KC
(4d rest)		---
12/21KC [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		KC -4
HOU +4
47HOU [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0-4-47
12/15CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		KC -2.5
CLE +2.5
46.5KC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-2.5-46.5
12/8KC [ 0 ]
(9d rest)		KC -6.5
LAC +6.5
44.5LAC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-6.5-44.5
11/29KC [ 0 ]
(5d rest)		KC -7.5
LV +7.5
45.5LV [ 0 ]
(5d rest)		0-7.5-45.5
11/24CAR [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		KC -7.5
CAR +7.5
45.5KC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-7.5-45.5
11/17BUF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		KC -1
BUF +1
48.5KC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1-48.5
11/10KC [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		KC -9.5
DEN +9.5
46DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-9.5-46
11/4KC [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		KC -7.5
TB +7.5
47TB [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0-7.5-47

Steelers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
1/5PIT
(11d rest)		PIT +1
CIN -1
43.5CIN
(7d rest)		---
12/25PIT
(4d rest)		PIT +4.5
KC -4.5
41.5KC
(4d rest)		---
12/21BAL [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		PIT +6
BAL -6
42.5PIT [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0+6-42.5
12/15PHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT +4.5
PHI -4.5
45PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+4.5-45
12/8PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT -1
CLE +1
43.5CLE [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0-1-43.5
12/1CIN [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		PIT +5.5
CIN -5.5
44.5PIT [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0+5.5-44.5
11/21CLE [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		PIT +3
CLE -3
43.5PIT [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		0+3-43.5
11/17PIT [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT +2.5
BAL -2.5
43BAL [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0+2.5-43
11/10WAS [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		PIT -1
WAS +1
43.5PIT [ 0 ]
(13d rest)		0-1-43.5
10/28PIT [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		PIT -4.5
NYG +4.5
42.5NYG [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0-4.5-42.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
12/25/24
Week 17		PIT
(4d rest)		PIT +4.5
KC -4.5
41.5KC
(4d rest)		---PIT
KC		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

1/16/22
Week 19		KC [ 42 ]
(7d rest)		PIT +12
KC -12
48.5PIT [ 21 ]
(7d rest)		-21-9+14.5PIT
KC		271
512		56
106		215
406		66
65		4.1
7.9		12.9
6.5		1
0		2
2
12/26/21
Week 16		KC [ 36 ]
(10d rest)		PIT +10
KC -10
44.5PIT [ 10 ]
(7d rest)		-26-16+1.5PIT
KC		324
385		130
127		194
258		72
71		4.5
5.4		32.4
9		0
1		2
3


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Chiefs 2-02-00-00-00-01-00-0
Steelers 1h1-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Steelers 2-00-00-01-01-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Chiefs 1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Steelers 1h2-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Steelers 2-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Chiefs 2-0-02-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Steelers 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Steelers 0-2-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Chiefs 1-14-01-7-00-0-00-6-00-1-00-4-00-2-0
Steelers 1h0-1-10-0-00-0-00-0-10-1-00-0-00-0-0
Steelers 0-15-00-3-00-3-00-2-00-6-00-3-00-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Chiefs 1-14-01-7-00-0-00-6-00-1-01-3-00-2-0
Steelers 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Steelers 0-15-00-3-00-3-00-2-00-6-00-3-00-3-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Steelers0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-6 (100%)0-0-6 (-)1-0-1 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Chiefs0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-2 (-)1-1-6 (50%)0-0-5 (-)0-0-0 (-)