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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the Broncos (+4) a 62.13% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over the total (42.5) around 59.2% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Chiefs Situational Notes

Broncos Situational Notes

Chiefs Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
1/5DEN
(7d rest)		KC -4
DEN +4
42.5KC
(11d rest)		---
12/25PIT [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		KC -4.5
PIT +4.5
41.5KC [ 0 ]
(4d rest)		0-4.5-41.5
12/21KC [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		KC -4
HOU +4
47HOU [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0-4-47
12/15CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		KC -2.5
CLE +2.5
46.5KC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-2.5-46.5
12/8KC [ 0 ]
(9d rest)		KC -6.5
LAC +6.5
44.5LAC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-6.5-44.5
11/29KC [ 0 ]
(5d rest)		KC -7.5
LV +7.5
45.5LV [ 0 ]
(5d rest)		0-7.5-45.5
11/24CAR [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		KC -7.5
CAR +7.5
45.5KC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-7.5-45.5
11/17BUF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		KC -1
BUF +1
48.5KC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1-48.5
11/10KC [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		KC -9.5
DEN +9.5
46DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-9.5-46
11/4KC [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		KC -7.5
TB +7.5
47TB [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0-7.5-47

Broncos Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
1/5DEN
(7d rest)		DEN +4
KC -4
42.5KC
(11d rest)		---
12/29CIN [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		DEN +8
CIN -8
45.5DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+8-45.5
12/22LAC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DEN +4.5
LAC -4.5
43DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+4.5-43
12/15DEN [ 0 ]
(13d rest)		DEN +2
IND -2
44.5IND [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0+2-44.5
12/2DEN [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		DEN +3
CLE -3
43CLE [ 0 ]
(11d rest)		0+3-43
11/24LV [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DEN +1.5
LV -1.5
42DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1.5-42
11/17DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DEN +2.5
ATL -2.5
44.5ATL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+2.5-44.5
11/10KC [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		DEN +9.5
KC -9.5
46DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+9.5-46
11/3BAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DEN +10.5
BAL -10.5
43DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+10.5-43
10/27DEN [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		DEN -2
CAR +2
41CAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-2-41

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
1/5/25
Week 18		DEN
(7d rest)		DEN +4
KC -4
42.5KC
(11d rest)		---DEN
KC		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

11/10/24
Week 10		KC [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		DEN +9.5
KC -9.5
46DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+9.5-46DEN
KC		0
0		0
0		0
0
NAN
NAN		NAN
NAN

10/29/23
Week 8		DEN [ 24 ]
(7d rest)		DEN +7
KC -7
45.5KC [ 9 ]
(7d rest)		+15+22-12.5DEN
KC		267
302		153
62		114
240		67
53		4
5.7		11.1
29.7		2
0		2
3
10/12/23
Week 6		KC [ 19 ]
(4d rest)		DEN +10.5
KC -10.5
47.5DEN [ 8 ]
(4d rest)		-11-0.5-20.5DEN
KC		210
402		115
96		95
306		49
74		4.3
5.4		26.3
11.1		1
2		1
2
1/1/23
Week 17		KC [ 27 ]
(8d rest)		DEN +12.5
KC -12.5
46DEN [ 24 ]
(7d rest)		-3+9.5+5DEN
KC		339
374		117
46		222
328		67
59		5.1
6.3		14.1
12.6		1
1		1
1
12/11/22
Week 14		DEN [ 28 ]
(7d rest)		DEN +9
KC -9
44KC [ 34 ]
(7d rest)		-6+3+18DEN
KC		369
441		106
89		263
352		69
69		5.3
6.4		13.2
10.9		3
2		1
0
1/9/22
Week 18		DEN [ 0 ]
(1d rest)		DEN 0
KC 0
0KC [ 0 ]
(1d rest)		000DEN
KC		0
0		0
0		0
0		0
0		NAN
NAN		NAN
NAN

1/8/22
Week 18		DEN [ 24 ]
(6d rest)		DEN +10.5
KC -10.5
45KC [ 28 ]
(6d rest)		-4+6.5+7DEN
KC		369
405		191
135		178
270		55
76		6.7
5.3		15.4
13.2		0
0		1
0
12/5/21
Week 13		KC [ 22 ]
(14d rest)		DEN +8.5
KC -8.5
46.5DEN [ 9 ]
(7d rest)		-13-4.5-15.5DEN
KC		411
273		154
89		257
184		73
57		5.6
4.8		45.7
18.7		1
2		2
0


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Chiefs 2-02-00-00-00-01-00-0
Broncos 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Broncos 0-20-00-10-00-10-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Chiefs 1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Broncos 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Broncos 1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Chiefs 2-0-02-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Broncos 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Broncos 1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Chiefs 1-15-01-7-00-0-00-7-00-1-00-4-00-2-0
Broncos 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Broncos 1-15-00-2-00-5-00-0-01-8-00-2-00-5-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Chiefs 1-15-01-7-00-0-00-7-00-1-01-3-00-2-0
Broncos 1h0-1-10-0-00-0-10-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Broncos 1-15-00-2-00-5-00-0-01-8-00-2-00-5-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Broncos0-0-1 (-)0-0-3 (-)1-1-6 (50%)0-0-4 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Chiefs0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-2 (-)1-1-7 (50%)0-0-5 (-)0-0-0 (-)