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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

My model gives the Rams (-4.5) a 51.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (45.5) around 57.4% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Vikings Situational Notes

Rams Situational Notes

Vikings Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/3MIN
(10d rest)		MIN 0
IND 0
46.5IND
(7d rest)		---
10/24LAR
(4d rest)		MIN +4.5
LAR -4.5
45.5MIN
(4d rest)		---
10/20MIN [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		MIN +3.5
DET -3.5
48DET [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+3.5-48
10/6NYJ [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		MIN +4
NYJ -4
42.5MIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+4-42.5
9/29GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		MIN +5.5
GB -5.5
42.5MIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+5.5-42.5
9/22MIN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		MIN +2
HOU -2
46HOU [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+2-46
9/15MIN [ 23 ]
(7d rest)		MIN +4.5
SF -4.5
46.5SF [ 17 ]
(6d rest)		+6+10.5-6.5
9/8NYG [ 6 ]
(0d rest)		MIN -1
NYG +1
42MIN [ 28 ]
(0d rest)		+22+21-8

Rams Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/3SEA
(7d rest)		LAR -1.5
SEA +1.5
46.5LAR
(10d rest)		---
10/24LAR
(4d rest)		LAR -4.5
MIN +4.5
45.5MIN
(4d rest)		---
10/20LAR [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		LAR -5.5
LV +5.5
46LV [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-5.5-46
10/6LAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		LAR +1
GB -1
48.5GB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1-48.5
9/29CHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		LAR +1
CHI -1
42LAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+1-42
9/22LAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		LAR +7
SF -7
44.5SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+7-44.5
9/15ARI [ 41 ]
(7d rest)		LAR +1
ARI -1
47LAR [ 10 ]
(7d rest)		-31-30+4
9/8DET [ 26 ]
(0d rest)		LAR +5.5
DET -5.5
53.5LAR [ 20 ]
(0d rest)		-6-0.5-7.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
10/24/24
Week 8		LAR
(4d rest)		LAR -4.5
MIN +4.5
45.5MIN
(4d rest)		---LAR
MIN		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

12/26/21
Week 16		MIN [ 23 ]
(6d rest)		LAR -3
MIN +3
48.5LAR [ 30 ]
(5d rest)		+7+4+4.5LAR
MIN		356
381		159
66		197
315		73
66		4.9
5.8		11.9
15.5		1
3		1
3


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Vikings 1h2-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Vikings 2-00-01-01-00-01-00-0
Rams 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-0
Rams 0-20-00-00-00-20-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Vikings 1h2-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Vikings 2-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Rams 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-0
Rams 0-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Vikings 1h0-2-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Vikings 0-2-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Rams 1h1-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-0
Rams 1-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Vikings 1h2-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-0
Vikings 2-4-00-0-01-2-01-0-00-1-01-1-00-0-0
Rams 1h0-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-0
Rams 0-6-00-1-00-2-00-0-00-3-00-1-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Vikings 1h0-2-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-0
Vikings 0-6-00-0-00-3-00-1-00-1-00-2-00-0-0
Rams 1h1-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-0
Rams 1-5-00-1-00-2-00-0-01-2-00-1-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Rams0-0-0 (-)0-0-1 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-1-2 (0%)0-0-1 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Vikings0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-3 (100%)1-0-1 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)