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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

My model gives the Saints (-4) a 40.42% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (42.5) around 58% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Broncos Situational Notes

Saints Situational Notes

Broncos Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
10/27DEN
(10d rest)		DEN -2
CAR +2
41CAR
(7d rest)		---
10/17NO
(4d rest)		DEN +4
NO -4
42.5DEN
(4d rest)		---
10/13DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DEN +2.5
LAC -2.5
43LAC [ 0 ]
(14d rest)		0+2.5-43
10/6DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DEN -1.5
LV +1.5
41LV [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-1.5-41
9/29NYJ [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		DEN +7
NYJ -7
37.5DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+7-37.5
9/22TB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		DEN +6.5
TB -6.5
40DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+6.5-40
9/15DEN [ 6 ]
(7d rest)		DEN +3
PIT -3
36.5PIT [ 13 ]
(7d rest)		-7-4-17.5
9/8SEA [ 26 ]
(0d rest)		DEN +6.5
SEA -6.5
42.5DEN [ 20 ]
(0d rest)		-6+0.5+3.5

Saints Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
10/27LAC
(6d rest)		NO +3.5
LAC -3.5
44NO
(10d rest)		---
10/17NO
(4d rest)		NO -4
DEN +4
42.5DEN
(4d rest)		---
10/13NO [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		NO -1
TB +1
43TB [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0-1-43
10/7KC [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		NO +7.5
KC -7.5
44.5NO [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0+7.5-44.5
9/29ATL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		NO +3.5
ATL -3.5
46NO [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+3.5-46
9/22NO [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		NO -2.5
PHI +2.5
49.5PHI [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		0-2.5-49.5
9/15DAL [ 19 ]
(7d rest)		NO +6.5
DAL -6.5
47NO [ 44 ]
(7d rest)		+25+31.5+16
9/8NO [ 47 ]
(0d rest)		NO -3.5
CAR +3.5
41.5CAR [ 10 ]
(0d rest)		+37+33.5+15.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
10/17/24
Week 7		NO
(4d rest)		NO -4
DEN +4
42.5DEN
(4d rest)		---NO
DEN		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Broncos 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Broncos 0-20-00-10-00-10-00-0
Saints 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Saints 2-01-00-00-01-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Broncos 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Broncos 1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Saints 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Saints 2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Broncos 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Broncos 1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Saints 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Saints 2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Broncos 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Broncos 1-5-00-1-00-2-00-0-01-2-00-0-00-2-0
Saints 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Saints 2-4-01-2-00-0-00-0-01-2-00-1-00-1-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Broncos 1h0-1-10-0-00-0-10-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Broncos 1-5-00-1-00-2-00-0-01-2-00-0-00-2-0
Saints 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Saints 0-6-00-3-00-0-00-0-00-3-00-1-00-1-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Saints0-0-0 (-)0-0-1 (-)1-0-1 (100%)0-0-1 (-)1-0-1 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Broncos0-0-0 (-)0-0-1 (-)1-1-2 (50%)0-0-1 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)