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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the Seahawks (+5.5) a 61.74% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over the total (46.5) around 57.3% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


49ers Situational Notes

Seahawks Situational Notes

49ers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
10/20SF
(10d rest)		SF -1.5
KC +1.5
49KC
(13d rest)		---
10/10SEA
(4d rest)		SF -5.5
SEA +5.5
46.5SF
(4d rest)		---
10/6SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		SF -9.5
ARI +9.5
47ARI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-9.5-47
9/29SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		SF -12
NE +12
40.5NE [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0-12-40.5
9/22LAR [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		SF -7
LAR +7
44.5SF [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-7-44.5
9/15MIN [ 23 ]
(7d rest)		SF -4.5
MIN +4.5
46.5SF [ 17 ]
(6d rest)		-6-10.5-6.5
9/9SF [ 32 ]
(0d rest)		SF -3.5
NYJ +3.5
43NYJ [ 19 ]
(0d rest)		+13+9.5+8

Seahawks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
10/20ATL
(7d rest)		SEA +3.5
ATL -3.5
48SEA
(10d rest)		---
10/10SEA
(4d rest)		SEA +5.5
SF -5.5
46.5SF
(4d rest)		---
10/6SEA [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		SEA -3
NYG +3
43NYG [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0-3-43
9/30DET [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		SEA +6
DET -6
48.5SEA [ 0 ]
(8d rest)		0+6-48.5
9/22SEA [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		SEA -4.5
MIA +4.5
41.5MIA [ 0 ]
(10d rest)		0-4.5-41.5
9/15NE [ 20 ]
(7d rest)		SEA -3
NE +3
39SEA [ 23 ]
(7d rest)		+30+4
9/8SEA [ 26 ]
(0d rest)		SEA -6.5
DEN +6.5
42.5DEN [ 20 ]
(0d rest)		+6-0.5+3.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
11/17/24
Week 11		SF
(7d rest)		SEA +8.5
SF -8.5
46.5SEA
(14d rest)		---SEA
SF		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

10/10/24
Week 6		SEA
(4d rest)		SEA +5.5
SF -5.5
46.5SF
(4d rest)		---SEA
SF		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

12/10/23
Week 14		SF [ 28 ]
(7d rest)		SEA +14.5
SF -14.5
44.5SEA [ 16 ]
(10d rest)		-12+2.5-0.5SEA
SF		339
541		70
173		269
368		56
53		6.1
10.2		21.2
12.1		1
2		0
1
11/23/23
Week 12		SEA [ 13 ]
(4d rest)		SEA +7
SF -7
43SF [ 31 ]
(4d rest)		-18-11+1SEA
SF		268
378		88
169		180
209		57
66		4.7
5.7		20.6
8.6		1
1		1
1
1/14/23
Week 19		SF [ 41 ]
(6d rest)		SEA +9.5
SF -9.5
42SEA [ 23 ]
(6d rest)		-18-8.5+22SEA
SF		357
513		104
181		253
332		64
68		5.6
7.5		15.5
8.7		0
1		1
0
12/15/22
Week 15		SEA [ 13 ]
(4d rest)		SEA +3
SF -3
42.5SF [ 21 ]
(4d rest)		-8-5-8.5SEA
SF		308
387		70
170		238
217		63
62		4.9
6.2		23.7
14.7		0
0		2
0
9/18/22
Week 2		SF [ 27 ]
(7d rest)		SEA +8.5
SF -8.5
39.5SEA [ 7 ]
(6d rest)		-20-11.5-5.5SEA
SF		233
373		36
189		197
184		47
73		5
5.1		33.3
8.6		0
2		1
2
12/5/21
Week 13		SEA [ 30 ]
(6d rest)		SEA +3
SF -3
44.5SF [ 23 ]
(7d rest)		+7+10+8.5SEA
SF		377
370		146
71		231
299		69
57		5.5
6.5		12.6
16.4		2
1		4
1
10/3/21
Week 4		SF [ 21 ]
(7d rest)		SEA +3
SF -3
52SEA [ 28 ]
(7d rest)		+7+10-3SEA
SF		254
465		105
143		149
322		54
73		4.7
6.4		9.1
12.1		1
0		3
1


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Fortyniners 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0
Fortyniners 1-11-00-00-10-00-00-1
Seahawks 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Seahawks 2-01-00-01-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Fortyniners 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0
Fortyniners 1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0
Seahawks 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Seahawks 0-1-10-1-00-0-00-0-10-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Fortyniners 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0
Fortyniners 1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0
Seahawks 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Seahawks 2-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Fortyniners 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-0
Fortyniners 1-4-01-2-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-2-0
Seahawks 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Seahawks 2-3-01-2-00-0-01-0-00-1-00-0-00-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Fortyniners 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-0
Fortyniners 1-4-00-3-00-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-01-1-0
Seahawks 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Seahawks 2-3-01-2-00-0-01-0-00-1-00-0-00-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Seahawks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-1 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-3 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Fortyniners0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-2 (-)0-0-1 (-)