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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the Falcons (-3) a 55.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (44.5) around 54.7% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Buccaneers Situational Notes

Falcons Situational Notes

Buccaneers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
10/13NO
(6d rest)		TB +1
NO -1
43TB
(10d rest)		---
10/3ATL
(4d rest)		TB +3
ATL -3
44.5TB
(4d rest)		---
9/29TB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		TB +3
PHI -3
47.5PHI [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+3-47.5
9/22TB [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		TB -6.5
DEN +6.5
40DEN [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-6.5-40
9/15DET [ 16 ]
(7d rest)		TB +7.5
DET -7.5
51.5TB [ 20 ]
(7d rest)		+4+11.5-15.5
9/8TB [ 37 ]
(0d rest)		TB -4
WAS +4
42.5WAS [ 20 ]
(0d rest)		+17+13+14.5

Falcons Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
10/13CAR
(7d rest)		ATL -3
CAR +3
44ATL
(10d rest)		---
10/3ATL
(4d rest)		ATL -3
TB +3
44.5TB
(4d rest)		---
9/29ATL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		ATL -3.5
NO +3.5
46NO [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0-3.5-46
9/22ATL [ 0 ]
(6d rest)		ATL +3.5
KC -3.5
46.5KC [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		0+3.5-46.5
9/16PHI [ 21 ]
(10d rest)		ATL +5.5
PHI -5.5
46.5ATL [ 22 ]
(8d rest)		+1+6.5-3.5
9/8ATL [ 10 ]
(0d rest)		ATL -4
PIT +4
43PIT [ 18 ]
(0d rest)		-8-12-15

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
10/27/24
Week 8		TB
(6d rest)		ATL +1
TB -1
44ATL
(7d rest)		---ATL
TB		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

10/3/24
Week 5		ATL
(4d rest)		ATL -3
TB +3
44.5TB
(4d rest)		---ATL
TB		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

12/10/23
Week 14		ATL [ 25 ]
(7d rest)		ATL -1.5
TB +1.5
41.5TB [ 29 ]
(7d rest)		-4-5.5+12.5ATL
TB		443
292		96
148		347
144		72
69		6.2
4.2		17.7
15.3		0
1		4
2
10/22/23
Week 7		TB [ 13 ]
(7d rest)		ATL +3
TB -3
37.5ATL [ 16 ]
(7d rest)		+3+6-8.5ATL
TB		406
348		156
73		250
275		67
67		6.1
5.2		25.4
31.2		1
0		3
2
1/8/23
Week 18		ATL [ 30 ]
(7d rest)		ATL -6
TB +6
40.5TB [ 17 ]
(7d rest)		+13+7+6.5ATL
TB		398
222		174
86		224
136		70
55		5.7
4		13.3
23.4		0
0		1
1
10/9/22
Week 5		TB [ 21 ]
(7d rest)		ATL +10
TB -10
46ATL [ 15 ]
(7d rest)		-6+4-10ATL
TB		298
420		151
69		147
351		62
77		4.8
5.5		19.9
14.2		0
0		1
0
12/5/21
Week 13		ATL [ 17 ]
(7d rest)		ATL +11
TB -11
50.5TB [ 30 ]
(7d rest)		-13-2-3.5ATL
TB		418
425		121
57		297
368		70
69		6
6.2		24.6
13.9		1
0		5
0
9/19/21
Week 2		TB [ 48 ]
(10d rest)		ATL +13
TB -13
52ATL [ 25 ]
(7d rest)		-23-10+21ATL
TB		355
358		55
82		300
276		70
60		5.1
6		14.2
7.4		0
3		1
2


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Buccaneers 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Buccaneers 2-01-00-00-01-00-00-0
Falcons 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Falcons 1-10-10-00-01-00-01-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Buccaneers 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Buccaneers 2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Falcons 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Falcons 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Buccaneers 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Buccaneers 1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Falcons 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Falcons 0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Buccaneers 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Buccaneers 1-3-01-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Falcons 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Falcons 1-3-00-2-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-01-1-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Buccaneers 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Buccaneers 1-3-01-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Falcons 1h0-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Falcons 0-4-00-2-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Falcons0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-1 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-1 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Buccaneers0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-1 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-1 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)