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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, my model gives the Giants (+5) a 62.26% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over the total (43.5) around 53.5% of the time. While I factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits in my decision to bet, I don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variation.


Cowboys Situational Notes

Giants Situational Notes

Cowboys Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
10/6PIT
(7d rest)
DAL -2.5
PIT +2.5
43DAL
(10d rest)
---
9/26NYG
(4d rest)
DAL -5
NYG +5
43.5DAL
(4d rest)
---
9/22DAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)
DAL +1
BAL -1
48.5BAL [ 0 ]
(7d rest)
0+1-48.5
9/15DAL [ 19 ]
(7d rest)
DAL -6.5
NO +6.5
47NO [ 44 ]
(7d rest)
-25-31.5+16
9/8CLE [ 17 ]
(0d rest)
DAL +2
CLE -2
42DAL [ 33 ]
(0d rest)
+16+18+8

Giants Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
10/6SEA
(6d rest)
NYG +3
SEA -3
43NYG
(10d rest)
---
9/26NYG
(4d rest)
NYG +5
DAL -5
43.5DAL
(4d rest)
---
9/22CLE [ 0 ]
(7d rest)
NYG +6.5
CLE -6.5
38.5NYG [ 0 ]
(7d rest)
0+6.5-38.5
9/15WAS [ 21 ]
(7d rest)
NYG +1.5
WAS -1.5
43NYG [ 18 ]
(7d rest)
-3-1.5-4
9/8NYG [ 6 ]
(0d rest)
NYG +1
MIN -1
42MIN [ 28 ]
(0d rest)
-22-21-8

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
11/28/24
Week 13
DAL
(4d rest)
NYG +9.5
DAL -9.5
45.5NYG
(4d rest)
---NYG
DAL
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-


9/26/24
Week 4
NYG
(4d rest)
NYG +5
DAL -5
43.5DAL
(4d rest)
---NYG
DAL
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-


11/12/23
Week 10
DAL [ 49 ]
(7d rest)
NYG +17.5
DAL -17.5
39NYG [ 17 ]
(7d rest)
-32-14.5+27NYG
DAL
197
640
111
168
86
472
56
77
3.5
8.3
11.6
4
2
1
0
0
9/10/23
Week 1
NYG [ 0 ]
(0d rest)
NYG +3.5
DAL -3.5
44.5DAL [ 40 ]
(0d rest)
-40-36.5-4.5NYG
DAL
218
265
108
122
110
143
67
57
3.3
4.6
INF
5.5
0
2
5
1
11/24/22
Week 12
DAL [ 28 ]
(4d rest)
NYG +10
DAL -10
46NYG [ 20 ]
(4d rest)
-8+2+2NYG
DAL
318
430
90
169
228
261
61
70
5.2
6.1
15.9
11.4
2
0
1
1
9/26/22
Week 3
NYG [ 16 ]
(8d rest)
NYG -1
DAL +1
38.5DAL [ 23 ]
(8d rest)
-7-8+0.5NYG
DAL
363
391
167
176
196
215
71
65
5.1
6
22.7
15.8
0
1
0
0
12/19/21
Week 15
NYG [ 6 ]
(7d rest)
NYG +12
DAL -12
43.5DAL [ 21 ]
(7d rest)
-15-3-16.5NYG
DAL
305
342
124
125
181
217
63
73
4.8
4.7
50.8
14.5
0
3
1
3
10/10/21
Week 5
DAL [ 44 ]
(7d rest)
NYG +7
DAL -7
52.5NYG [ 20 ]
(7d rest)
-24-17+11.5NYG
DAL
367
525
73
201
294
324
67
77
5.5
6.8
18.4
8.3
1
2
1
2



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Cowboys 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cowboys 1-10-10-00-01-00-00-0
Giants 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Giants 0-20-00-10-00-10-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Cowboys 1h1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cowboys 1-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Giants 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Giants 0-2-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Cowboys 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cowboys 2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Giants 1h0-2-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Giants 0-2-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Cowboys 1h2-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cowboys 1-2-00-1-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Giants 1h1-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-0
Giants 0-3-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Cowboys 1h1-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Cowboys 1-2-01-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Giants 1h1-1-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-0
Giants 1-2-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Giants0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-1 (-)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Cowboys0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-1 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)