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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Model output will show after week 3.


Patriots Situational Notes
Coming off an Overtime game
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)

Jets Situational Notes
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)
First game home off 2+ game road trip

Baller Systems
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Patriots Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/29SF
(6d rest)		NE +12
SF -12
41NE
(10d rest)		---
9/19NYJ
(4d rest)		NE +6
NYJ -6
38.5NE
(4d rest)		---
9/15NE [ 20 ]
(7d rest)		NE +3
SEA -3
39SEA [ 23 ]
(7d rest)		-30+4
9/8CIN [ 10 ]
(0d rest)		NE +8
CIN -8
40.5NE [ 16 ]
(0d rest)		+6+14-14.5

Jets Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/29NYJ
(10d rest)		NYJ -7
DEN +7
38DEN
(6d rest)		---
9/19NYJ
(4d rest)		NYJ -6
NE +6
38.5NE
(4d rest)		---
9/15TEN [ 17 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ -3.5
TEN +3.5
41NYJ [ 24 ]
(6d rest)		+7+3.50
9/9SF [ 32 ]
(0d rest)		NYJ +3.5
SF -3.5
43NYJ [ 19 ]
(0d rest)		-13-9.5+8

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
10/27/24
Week 8		NE
(7d rest)		NYJ -4.5
NE +4.5
41.5NYJ
(7d rest)		---NYJ
NE		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

9/19/24
Week 3		NYJ
(4d rest)		NYJ -6
NE +6
38.5NE
(4d rest)		---NYJ
NE		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

1/7/24
Week 18		NE [ 3 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ +2
NE -2
28.5NYJ [ 17 ]
(10d rest)		+14+16-8.5NYJ
NE		255
176		185
88		70
88		67
59		3.8
3		15
85		2
0		3
1
9/24/23
Week 3		NYJ [ 10 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ +2.5
NE -2.5
35.5NE [ 15 ]
(7d rest)		-5-2.5-10.5NYJ
NE		195
358		38
157		157
201		62
73		3.1
4.9		19.5
13		0
0		1
0
11/20/22
Week 11		NE [ 10 ]
(14d rest)		NYJ +3.5
NE -3.5
38NYJ [ 3 ]
(14d rest)		-7-3.5-25NYJ
NE		136
345		59
99		77
246		0
0		INF
INF		45.3
13.6		0
0		1
1
10/30/22
Week 8		NYJ [ 17 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ +3
NE -3
40NE [ 22 ]
(6d rest)		-5-2-1NYJ
NE		406
321		51
127		355
194		0
0		INF
INF		23.9
18.5		1
3		0
1
10/24/21
Week 7		NE [ 54 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ +7
NE -7
42.5NYJ [ 13 ]
(14d rest)		-41-34+24.5NYJ
NE		299
559		62
148		253
411		61
74		4.9
7.6		23
5.5		0
2		1
0
9/19/21
Week 2		NYJ [ 6 ]
(7d rest)		NYJ +5.5
NE -5.5
43NE [ 25 ]
(7d rest)		-19-13.5-12NYJ
NE		336
287		152
101		210
186		68
57		4.9
5		56
13.4		0
4		0
1


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Patriots 1h5-14-01-2-01-5-01-1-02-5-00-3-00-3-0
Patriots 5-140-31-51-13-40-31-2
Jets 1h4-14-11-0-00-7-11-1-01-6-02-3-01-2-0
Jets 8-111-03-52-02-52-31-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Patriots 1h7-10-21-2-02-3-11-1-03-3-11-2-01-1-1
Patriots 6-11-20-3-01-3-21-1-04-3-00-2-12-1-0
Jets 1h5-14-01-0-01-7-01-1-01-6-02-3-01-2-0
Jets 7-11-10-1-04-4-01-0-12-5-01-3-11-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Patriots 1h8-10-12-1-03-3-00-2-03-3-11-2-01-2-0
Patriots 8-11-00-3-04-2-00-2-04-3-01-2-02-1-0
Jets 1h9-10-01-0-03-5-00-2-05-2-02-3-01-2-0
Jets 8-10-11-0-03-5-00-1-14-3-00-5-01-1-1

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Patriots 1h9-10-01-2-04-2-01-1-03-4-01-2-01-2-0
Patriots 6-13-00-3-03-3-00-2-03-4-01-2-02-1-0
Jets 1h4-15-01-0-01-7-00-2-02-5-00-5-01-2-0
Jets 9-10-01-0-04-4-01-1-03-4-01-4-01-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Patriots 1h11-8-02-1-04-2-00-2-05-2-02-1-01-2-0
Patriots 10-8-13-0-04-2-00-2-03-3-11-2-02-1-0
Jets 1h14-5-00-1-07-1-01-1-06-1-03-2-02-1-0
Jets 8-11-01-0-02-6-00-2-05-2-02-3-01-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Jets0-0-0 (-)1-4-0 (20%)4-4-0 (50%)1-2-0 (33.3%)1-1-1 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Patriots1-0-1 (100%)3-1-0 (75%)1-4-1 (20%)0-4-0 (0%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)