Pacers @ Thunder [ Thunder -6.5 / 215.5 ]
Pacers | 65-39 (62.5%)Thunder | 83-22 (79%)
Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Our base model gives the Thunder (-6.5) a 58.2-52% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 215.5 around 34.5-41.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Thunder have a 64.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 33.6% chance of going over the total.
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Baller Systems
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Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Baller Systems
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| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 6/22 | OKC | IND +6.5 OKC -6.5 | 215.5 | IND | - | - | - |
| 6/19 | IND [ 108 ] | IND +5.5 OKC -5.5 | 223 | OKC [ 91 ] | +17 | +22.5 | -24 |
| 6/16 | OKC [ 120 ] | IND +9 OKC -9 | 223 | IND [ 109 ] | -11 | -2 | +6 |
| 6/13 | IND [ 104 ] | IND +6 OKC -6 | 227.5 | OKC [ 111 ] | -7 | -1 | -12.5 |
| 6/11 | IND [ 116 ] | IND +5.5 OKC -5.5 | 226 | OKC [ 107 ] | +9 | +14.5 | -3 |
| 6/8 | OKC [ 123 ] | IND +11.5 OKC -11.5 | 228 | IND [ 107 ] | -16 | -4.5 | +2 |
| 6/5 | OKC [ 110 ] | IND +10 OKC -10 | 230 | IND [ 111 ] | +1 | +11 | -9 |
| 5/31 | IND [ 125 ] | IND -4.5 NYK +4.5 | 222.5 | NYK [ 108 ] | +17 | +12.5 | +10.5 |
| 5/29 | NYK [ 111 ] | IND +4.5 NYK -4.5 | 223 | IND [ 94 ] | -17 | -12.5 | -18 |
| 5/27 | IND [ 130 ] | IND -3 NYK +3 | 219 | NYK [ 121 ] | +9 | +6 | +32 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 6/22 | OKC | OKC -6.5 IND +6.5 | 215.5 | IND | - | - | - |
| 6/19 | IND [ 108 ] | OKC -5.5 IND +5.5 | 223 | OKC [ 91 ] | -17 | -22.5 | -24 |
| 6/16 | OKC [ 120 ] | OKC -9 IND +9 | 223 | IND [ 109 ] | +11 | +2 | +6 |
| 6/13 | IND [ 104 ] | OKC -6 IND +6 | 227.5 | OKC [ 111 ] | +7 | +1 | -12.5 |
| 6/11 | IND [ 116 ] | OKC -5.5 IND +5.5 | 226 | OKC [ 107 ] | -9 | -14.5 | -3 |
| 6/8 | OKC [ 123 ] | OKC -11.5 IND +11.5 | 228 | IND [ 107 ] | +16 | +4.5 | +2 |
| 6/5 | OKC [ 110 ] | OKC -10 IND +10 | 230 | IND [ 111 ] | -1 | -11 | -9 |
| 5/28 | OKC [ 124 ] | OKC -9 MIN +9 | 222 | MIN [ 94 ] | +30 | +21 | -4 |
| 5/26 | MIN [ 126 ] | OKC -3 MIN +3 | 219 | OKC [ 128 ] | +2 | -1 | +35 |
| 5/24 | MIN [ 143 ] | OKC -3 MIN +3 | 216.5 | OKC [ 101 ] | -42 | -45 | +27.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | Pace | Ortg | Drtg | Net | Tot | |
| 6/22 | OKC | OKC -6.5 IND +6.5 | 215.5 | IND | - | - | - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| 6/19 | IND [ 108 ] | OKC -5.5 IND +5.5 | 223 | OKC [ 91 ] | -17 | -22.5 | -24 | 99.7 - | 91.3 - | 108.3 - | -17 - | 199 - |
| 6/16 | OKC [ 120 ] | OKC -9 IND +9 | 223 | IND [ 109 ] | +11 | +2 | +6 | 96.3 - | 124.6 - | 113.2 - | 11.4 - | 229 - |
| 6/13 | IND [ 104 ] | OKC -6 IND +6 | 227.5 | OKC [ 111 ] | +7 | +1 | -12.5 | 95.7 - | 115.9 - | 108.6 - | 7.3 - | 215 - |
| 6/11 | IND [ 116 ] | OKC -5.5 IND +5.5 | 226 | OKC [ 107 ] | -9 | -14.5 | -3 | 98.2 - | 108.9 - | 118.1 - | -9.2 - | 223 - |
| 6/8 | OKC [ 123 ] | OKC -11.5 IND +11.5 | 228 | IND [ 107 ] | +16 | +4.5 | +2 | 97.1 - | 126.6 - | 110.1 - | 16.5 - | 230 - |
| 6/5 | OKC [ 110 ] | OKC -10 IND +10 | 230 | IND [ 111 ] | -1 | -11 | -9 | 100.9 - | 109 - | 110 - | -1 - | 221 - |
| 3/29 | OKC [ 132 ] | OKC -8.5 IND +8.5 | 234 | IND [ 111 ] | +21 | +12.5 | +9 | 101.4 - | 130.2 - | 109.5 - | 20.7 - | 243 - |
| 12/26 | IND [ 114 ] | OKC -5 IND +5 | 228 | OKC [ 120 ] | +6 | +1 | +6 | 97.3 - | 123.3 - | 117.2 - | 6.2 - | 234 - |
| Pacers ( game/s) |
Thunder ( game/s) |
|
| - | Win Percentage | - |
| - | ATS Win% | - |
| - | OU% | - |
| - | Offensive Rating | - |
| - | Defensive Rating | - |
| - | Pace | - |
| - | A/TO Ratio | - |
| Pacers ( game/s) |
Thunder ( game/s) |
|
| - | EFG% | - |
| - | EFG% Allowed | - |
| - | FT Rate | - |
| - | FT Rate Allowed | - |
| - | OReb% | - |
| - | OReb% Allowed | - |
| - | TO Rate | - |
| - | TO Rate Forced | - |
| Pacers ( game/s) |
Thunder ( game/s) |
|
| - | PPG | - |
| - | PPG Allowed | - |
| - | Pts off TO | - |
| - | Pts off TO Allowed | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts Allowed | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts Allowed | - |
| Pacers ( game/s) |
Thunder ( game/s) |
|
| - | Paint Attempts | - |
| - | Paint Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Paint FG% | - |
| - | Paint FG% Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% Allowed | - |
| Pacers ( game/s) |
Thunder ( game/s) |
|
| - | Corner 3 Attempts | - |
| - | Corner 3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% Allowed | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pacers | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Thunder 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Thunder | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pacers | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Thunder 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Thunder | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pacers | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Thunder 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Thunder | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pacers | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Thunder 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Thunder | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pacers | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Thunder 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Thunder | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Dog 10+ | Dog 7-10 | Dog 2.5-7 | Within 2.5 | Fav 2.5-7 | Fav 7-10 | Fav 10+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers | 1-1-0 (50%) | 2-1-0 (66.7%) | 7-4-0 (63.6%) | 0-1-0 (0%) | 4-0-0 (100%) | 1-1-0 (50%) | 0-0-0 (-) |
| Thunder | 0-0-0 (-) | 0-0-0 (-) | 0-0-0 (-) | 0-0-0 (-) | 1-6-0 (14.3%) | 5-1-0 (83.3%) | 5-5-0 (50%) |