Pacers @ Thunder [ Thunder -6.5 / 215.5 ]

Pacers | 65-39 (62.5%)
Thunder | 83-22 (79%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Thunder (-6.5) a 58.3-52% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 215.5 around 34.6-41.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Thunder have a 64.5% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 33.7% chance of going over the total.

Pacers Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
Fade home teams in Game 6 & 7 (Playoff specific)
▼ Under system based on low totals
▼ Game 6 and Game 7 Unders (Playoff specific)

Thunder Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
▼ Under system based on low totals
▼ Under system based on recent totals
▼ Unders after a team w/ high FT Rate (Playoff specific)

Pacers Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/22OKCIND +6.5
OKC -6.5
215.5IND---
6/19IND [ 108 ]IND +5.5
OKC -5.5
223OKC [ 91 ]+17+22.5-24
6/16OKC [ 120 ]IND +9
OKC -9
223IND [ 109 ]-11-2+6
6/13IND [ 104 ]IND +6
OKC -6
227.5OKC [ 111 ]-7-1-12.5
6/11IND [ 116 ]IND +5.5
OKC -5.5
226OKC [ 107 ]+9+14.5-3
6/8OKC [ 123 ]IND +11.5
OKC -11.5
228IND [ 107 ]-16-4.5+2
6/5OKC [ 110 ]IND +10
OKC -10
230IND [ 111 ]+1+11-9
5/31IND [ 125 ]IND -4.5
NYK +4.5
222.5NYK [ 108 ]+17+12.5+10.5
5/29NYK [ 111 ]IND +4.5
NYK -4.5
223IND [ 94 ]-17-12.5-18
5/27IND [ 130 ]IND -3
NYK +3
219NYK [ 121 ]+9+6+32
Thunder Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/22OKCOKC -6.5
IND +6.5
215.5IND---
6/19IND [ 108 ]OKC -5.5
IND +5.5
223OKC [ 91 ]-17-22.5-24
6/16OKC [ 120 ]OKC -9
IND +9
223IND [ 109 ]+11+2+6
6/13IND [ 104 ]OKC -6
IND +6
227.5OKC [ 111 ]+7+1-12.5
6/11IND [ 116 ]OKC -5.5
IND +5.5
226OKC [ 107 ]-9-14.5-3
6/8OKC [ 123 ]OKC -11.5
IND +11.5
228IND [ 107 ]+16+4.5+2
6/5OKC [ 110 ]OKC -10
IND +10
230IND [ 111 ]-1-11-9
5/28OKC [ 124 ]OKC -9
MIN +9
222MIN [ 94 ]+30+21-4
5/26MIN [ 126 ]OKC -3
MIN +3
219OKC [ 128 ]+2-1+35
5/24MIN [ 143 ]OKC -3
MIN +3
216.5OKC [ 101 ]-42-45+27.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
6/22OKCOKC -6.5
IND +6.5
215.5IND----
-
-
-
-
6/19IND [ 108 ]OKC -5.5
IND +5.5
223OKC [ 91 ]-17-22.5-2499.7
91.3
108.3
-17
199
6/16OKC [ 120 ]OKC -9
IND +9
223IND [ 109 ]+11+2+696.3
124.6
113.2
11.4
229
6/13IND [ 104 ]OKC -6
IND +6
227.5OKC [ 111 ]+7+1-12.595.7
115.9
108.6
7.3
215
6/11IND [ 116 ]OKC -5.5
IND +5.5
226OKC [ 107 ]-9-14.5-398.2
108.9
118.1
-9.2
223
6/8OKC [ 123 ]OKC -11.5
IND +11.5
228IND [ 107 ]+16+4.5+297.1
126.6
110.1
16.5
230
6/5OKC [ 110 ]OKC -10
IND +10
230IND [ 111 ]-1-11-9100.9
109
110
-1
221
3/29OKC [ 132 ]OKC -8.5
IND +8.5
234IND [ 111 ]+21+12.5+9101.4
130.2
109.5
20.7
243
12/26IND [ 114 ]OKC -5
IND +5
228OKC [ 120 ]+6+1+697.3
123.3
117.2
6.2
234
4/5IND [ 126 ]OKC +6
IND -6
234.5OKC [ 112 ]-14-8+3.5100
112
126
-14
238
3/12OKC [ 111 ]OKC -7
IND +7
240.5IND [ 121 ]-10-17-8.5101.7
109.2
119
-9.8
232

Efficiency
Pacers
(22 game/s)		 Thunder
(22 game/s)
0.68 (1)Win Percentage0.68 (1)
0.64 (2)ATS Win%0.45 (11)
0.5 (8)OU%0.45 (16)
115.61 (5)Offensive Rating116.05 (4)
113.44 (19)Defensive Rating107.13 (11)
98.43 (3)Pace99.14 (2)
1.93 (4)A/TO Ratio1.84 (6)

Four Factors
Pacers
(22 game/s)		 Thunder
(22 game/s)
56.42 (1)EFG%52.48 (11)
51.68 (15)EFG% Allowed50.79 (12)
28.77 (5)FT Rate28.7 (6)
33.6 (29)FT Rate Allowed28.33 (25)
20.02 (18)OReb%25.43 (12)
26.36 (22)OReb% Allowed26.75 (23)
14.01 (18)TO Rate12.64 (14)
14.44 (9)TO Rate Forced17.83 (1)

Scoring
Pacers
(22 game/s)		 Thunder
(22 game/s)
115.14 (3)PPG115.23 (2)
112.45 (24)PPG Allowed107.05 (16)
17.68 (2)Pts off TO22.23 (1)
14.05 (14)Pts off TO Allowed13.36 (12)
11.91 (18)2nd Chance Pts13.32 (14)
15.18 (23)2nd Chance Pts Allowed14.82 (19)
14.91 (5)Fast Break Pts15.82 (2)
9.68 (11)Fast Break Pts Allowed10.36 (12)

Inside the Arc
Pacers
(22 game/s)		 Thunder
(22 game/s)
37.45 (16)Paint Attempts43.59 (5)
41.82 (23)Paint Attempts Allowed38.36 (16)
57.4 (5)Paint FG%56.2 (8)
56.41 (23)Paint FG% Allowed52.49 (15)
13.5 (4)Mid-Range Attempts11.59 (7)
11.27 (23)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed10.09 (19)
48.48 (3)Mid-Range FG%42.35 (8)
35.89 (14)Mid-Range FG% Allowed43.69 (23)

Three Point Shooting
Pacers
(22 game/s)		 Thunder
(22 game/s)
9.64 (8)Corner 3 Attempts8.91 (11)
8.09 (18)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed12 (28)
46.7 (2)Corner 3 FG%39.8 (4)
36.52 (22)Corner 3 FG% Allowed34.85 (17)
24.05 (13)ATB3 Attempts25.68 (10)
25.05 (22)ATB3 Attempts Allowed25 (21)
36.48 (9)ATB3 FG%32.39 (17)
33.76 (16)ATB3 FG% Allowed34.55 (19)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h12-10-05-1-04-1-0--3-8-0----0-1-01-1-0
Pacers 15-75-13-2-7-4--1-02-0
Thunder 1h15-7-010-2-0--5-5-0--1-0-0--3-0-00-1-0
Thunder 15-710-2-5-5-1-0-1-21-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h14-8-05-1-04-1-0--5-6-0----0-1-01-1-0
Pacers 14-8-04-2-03-2-0--7-4-0----1-0-02-0-0
Thunder 1h13-8-110-2-0--3-6-1--0-1-0--3-0-00-1-0
Thunder 10-12-09-3-0--1-9-0--0-1-0--1-2-01-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h7-15-02-4-03-2-0--2-9-0----1-0-01-1-0
Pacers 11-11-04-2-01-4-0--6-5-0----1-0-01-1-0
Thunder 1h9-13-02-10-0--7-3-0--1-0-0--0-3-00-1-0
Thunder 10-12-06-6-0--4-6-0--1-0-0--1-2-00-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h11-9-24-1-14-1-0--3-7-1----1-0-01-1-0
Pacers 14-7-14-1-12-3-0--8-3-0----1-0-02-0-0
Thunder 1h9-13-06-6-0--3-7-0--0-1-0--1-2-00-1-0
Thunder 9-13-08-4-0--1-9-0--0-1-0--1-2-01-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h6-16-02-4-02-3-0--2-9-0----1-0-00-2-0
Pacers 8-14-03-3-01-4-0--4-7-0----1-0-00-2-0
Thunder 1h9-12-11-10-1--8-2-0--1-0-0--0-3-00-1-0
Thunder 9-13-03-9-0--6-4-0--1-0-0--2-1-00-1-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Pacers1-1-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)7-4-0 (63.6%)0-1-0 (0%)4-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)
Thunder0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-6-0 (14.3%)5-1-0 (83.3%)5-5-0 (50%)