Pacers @ Thunder [ Thunder -6.5 / 215.5 ]

Pacers | 65-39 (62.5%)
Thunder | 83-22 (79%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Thunder (-6.5) a 58.3-52% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 215.5 around 34.6-41.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Thunder have a 64.5% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 33.7% chance of going over the total.

Pacers Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
Fade home teams in Game 6 & 7 (Playoff specific)
▼ Under system based on low totals
▼ Game 6 and Game 7 Unders (Playoff specific)

Thunder Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
▼ Under system based on low totals
▼ Under system based on recent totals
▼ Unders after a team w/ high FT Rate (Playoff specific)

Pacers Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/22OKCIND +6.5
OKC -6.5
215.5IND---
6/19IND [ 108 ]IND +5.5
OKC -5.5
223OKC [ 91 ]+17+22.5-24
6/16OKC [ 120 ]IND +9
OKC -9
223IND [ 109 ]-11-2+6
6/13IND [ 104 ]IND +6
OKC -6
227.5OKC [ 111 ]-7-1-12.5
6/11IND [ 116 ]IND +5.5
OKC -5.5
226OKC [ 107 ]+9+14.5-3
6/8OKC [ 123 ]IND +11.5
OKC -11.5
228IND [ 107 ]-16-4.5+2
6/5OKC [ 110 ]IND +10
OKC -10
230IND [ 111 ]+1+11-9
5/31IND [ 125 ]IND -4.5
NYK +4.5
222.5NYK [ 108 ]+17+12.5+10.5
5/29NYK [ 111 ]IND +4.5
NYK -4.5
223IND [ 94 ]-17-12.5-18
5/27IND [ 130 ]IND -3
NYK +3
219NYK [ 121 ]+9+6+32
Thunder Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/22OKCOKC -6.5
IND +6.5
215.5IND---
6/19IND [ 108 ]OKC -5.5
IND +5.5
223OKC [ 91 ]-17-22.5-24
6/16OKC [ 120 ]OKC -9
IND +9
223IND [ 109 ]+11+2+6
6/13IND [ 104 ]OKC -6
IND +6
227.5OKC [ 111 ]+7+1-12.5
6/11IND [ 116 ]OKC -5.5
IND +5.5
226OKC [ 107 ]-9-14.5-3
6/8OKC [ 123 ]OKC -11.5
IND +11.5
228IND [ 107 ]+16+4.5+2
6/5OKC [ 110 ]OKC -10
IND +10
230IND [ 111 ]-1-11-9
5/28OKC [ 124 ]OKC -9
MIN +9
222MIN [ 94 ]+30+21-4
5/26MIN [ 126 ]OKC -3
MIN +3
219OKC [ 128 ]+2-1+35
5/24MIN [ 143 ]OKC -3
MIN +3
216.5OKC [ 101 ]-42-45+27.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
6/22OKCOKC -6.5
IND +6.5
215.5IND----
-
-
-
-
6/19IND [ 108 ]OKC -5.5
IND +5.5
223OKC [ 91 ]-17-22.5-2499.7
91.3
108.3
-17
199
6/16OKC [ 120 ]OKC -9
IND +9
223IND [ 109 ]+11+2+696.3
124.6
113.2
11.4
229
6/13IND [ 104 ]OKC -6
IND +6
227.5OKC [ 111 ]+7+1-12.595.7
115.9
108.6
7.3
215
6/11IND [ 116 ]OKC -5.5
IND +5.5
226OKC [ 107 ]-9-14.5-398.2
108.9
118.1
-9.2
223
6/8OKC [ 123 ]OKC -11.5
IND +11.5
228IND [ 107 ]+16+4.5+297.1
126.6
110.1
16.5
230
6/5OKC [ 110 ]OKC -10
IND +10
230IND [ 111 ]-1-11-9100.9
109
110
-1
221
3/29OKC [ 132 ]OKC -8.5
IND +8.5
234IND [ 111 ]+21+12.5+9101.4
130.2
109.5
20.7
243
12/26IND [ 114 ]OKC -5
IND +5
228OKC [ 120 ]+6+1+697.3
123.3
117.2
6.2
234
4/5IND [ 126 ]OKC +6
IND -6
234.5OKC [ 112 ]-14-8+3.5100
112
126
-14
238
3/12OKC [ 111 ]OKC -7
IND +7
240.5IND [ 121 ]-10-17-8.5101.7
109.2
119
-9.8
232

Efficiency
Pacers
(82 game/s)		 Thunder
(82 game/s)
0.67 (4)Win Percentage0.8 (1)
0.51 (14)ATS Win%0.65 (1)
0.49 (20)OU%0.56 (7)
117.5 (5)Offensive Rating120.08 (2)
113.26 (10)Defensive Rating108.22 (1)
99.37 (11)Pace100.07 (7)
2.23 (1)A/TO Ratio2.19 (2)

Four Factors
Pacers
(82 game/s)		 Thunder
(82 game/s)
56.56 (3)EFG%55.82 (7)
53.55 (9)EFG% Allowed51.62 (1)
25.31 (9)FT Rate23.88 (21)
26.22 (24)FT Rate Allowed26.72 (26)
20.91 (29)OReb%24.89 (18)
25.57 (18)OReb% Allowed24.87 (11)
13.02 (3)TO Rate11.95 (1)
14.85 (13)TO Rate Forced16.68 (1)

Scoring
Pacers
(82 game/s)		 Thunder
(82 game/s)
117.35 (7)PPG120.59 (3)
113.4 (15)PPG Allowed108.48 (4)
18.5 (9)Pts off TO21.96 (1)
14.67 (3)Pts off TO Allowed13.05 (1)
11.62 (30)2nd Chance Pts14.5 (14)
14.2 (16)2nd Chance Pts Allowed14.52 (19)
16.83 (6)Fast Break Pts16 (11)
12.15 (2)Fast Break Pts Allowed11.98 (1)

Inside the Arc
Pacers
(82 game/s)		 Thunder
(82 game/s)
40.24 (24)Paint Attempts43.73 (11)
44.43 (28)Paint Attempts Allowed39.02 (1)
59.76 (6)Paint FG%58.2 (10)
56.9 (13)Paint FG% Allowed53.88 (1)
12.09 (3)Mid-Range Attempts10.76 (5)
9.4 (23)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed8.78 (14)
46.72 (2)Mid-Range FG%43.76 (4)
41.25 (12)Mid-Range FG% Allowed41.53 (15)

Three Point Shooting
Pacers
(82 game/s)		 Thunder
(82 game/s)
9.5 (14)Corner 3 Attempts8.7 (24)
8.72 (4)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed11.88 (30)
41.85 (3)Corner 3 FG%41.51 (4)
38.04 (13)Corner 3 FG% Allowed37.78 (11)
26.07 (22)ATB3 Attempts28.65 (8)
26.13 (7)ATB3 Attempts Allowed27.12 (12)
36.34 (9)ATB3 FG%36.65 (8)
34.39 (8)ATB3 FG% Allowed33.45 (1)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h43-36-318-10-28-4-06-8-011-13-13-7-13-8-08-4-19-9-1
Pacers 55-2725-55-78-617-86-55-611-213-6
Thunder 1h58-24-033-10-0--23-13-02-1-09-4-08-4-012-2-06-3-0
Thunder 66-1637-6-27-92-113-07-511-38-1

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h42-39-114-15-19-3-05-9-014-11-04-7-03-8-07-6-08-11-0
Pacers 42-40-015-15-05-7-05-9-017-8-02-9-02-9-09-4-09-10-0
Thunder 1h48-33-126-17-0--20-15-12-1-05-8-06-6-09-5-04-5-0
Thunder 52-28-232-10-1--18-17-12-1-06-5-26-6-09-5-06-2-1

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h29-51-213-16-16-5-13-11-07-18-04-7-03-8-06-6-16-12-1
Pacers 40-41-113-16-15-7-06-8-016-9-05-6-05-6-07-6-07-11-1
Thunder 1h42-40-022-21-0--18-18-02-1-07-6-07-5-06-8-05-4-0
Thunder 45-36-125-17-1--18-18-02-1-07-6-06-5-17-7-02-6-1

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h39-41-213-16-18-4-05-9-013-11-13-8-03-8-08-5-07-12-0
Pacers 42-38-214-14-26-6-05-9-017-8-05-6-04-7-07-6-08-10-1
Thunder 1h44-38-023-20-0--19-17-02-1-06-7-07-5-08-6-05-4-0
Thunder 50-32-031-12-0--17-19-02-1-06-7-08-4-08-6-05-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h32-50-013-17-05-7-07-7-06-19-06-5-06-5-05-8-07-12-0
Pacers 34-48-012-18-06-6-06-8-010-15-06-5-05-6-08-5-07-12-0
Thunder 1h36-44-216-25-2--18-18-02-1-07-5-17-5-03-10-14-5-0
Thunder 36-46-017-26-0--18-18-01-2-06-7-06-6-08-6-01-8-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Pacers1-1-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)7-4-0 (63.6%)0-1-0 (0%)4-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)
Thunder0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-6-0 (14.3%)5-1-0 (83.3%)5-5-0 (50%)