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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Timberwolves (-2.5) a 52.3-46.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 204.5 around 74.5-71.2% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Timberwolves have a 62.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 71.8% chance of going over the total.


Nuggets Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Timberwolves Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Double digit, in-season revenge

Baller Systems
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Nuggets Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/19DENDEN -4.5
MIN +4.5
199MIN---
5/16MINDEN +2.5
MIN -2.5
204.5DEN---
5/14DEN [ 112 ]DEN -4.5
MIN +4.5
205.5MIN [ 97 ]+15+10.5+3.5
5/12MIN [ 107 ]DEN +3
MIN -3
204.5DEN [ 115 ]+8+11+17.5
5/10MIN [ 90 ]DEN +4.5
MIN -4.5
204.5DEN [ 117 ]+27+31.5+2.5
5/6DEN [ 80 ]DEN -5.5
MIN +5.5
205.5MIN [ 106 ]-26-31.5-19.5
5/4DEN [ 99 ]DEN -5
MIN +5
208MIN [ 106 ]-7-12-3
4/29DEN [ 108 ]DEN -7.5
LAL +7.5
217LAL [ 106 ]+2-5.5-3
4/27LAL [ 119 ]DEN -3.5
LAL +3.5
220.5DEN [ 108 ]-11-14.5+6.5
4/25LAL [ 105 ]DEN +1
LAL -1
217.5DEN [ 112 ]+7+8-0.5

Timberwolves Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/19DENMIN +4.5
DEN -4.5
199MIN---
5/16MINMIN -2.5
DEN +2.5
204.5DEN---
5/14DEN [ 112 ]MIN +4.5
DEN -4.5
205.5MIN [ 97 ]-15-10.5+3.5
5/12MIN [ 107 ]MIN -3
DEN +3
204.5DEN [ 115 ]-8-11+17.5
5/10MIN [ 90 ]MIN -4.5
DEN +4.5
204.5DEN [ 117 ]-27-31.5+2.5
5/6DEN [ 80 ]MIN +5.5
DEN -5.5
205.5MIN [ 106 ]+26+31.5-19.5
5/4DEN [ 99 ]MIN +5
DEN -5
208MIN [ 106 ]+7+12-3
4/28PHO [ 116 ]MIN +1
PHO -1
213MIN [ 122 ]+6+7+25
4/26PHO [ 109 ]MIN +5.5
PHO -5.5
208.5MIN [ 126 ]+17+22.5+26.5
4/23MIN [ 105 ]MIN -3
PHO +3
210.5PHO [ 93 ]+12+9-12.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/19DENMIN +4.5
DEN -4.5
199MIN--------
5/16MINMIN -2.5
DEN +2.5
204.5DEN--------
5/14DEN [ 112 ]MIN +4.5
DEN -4.5
205.5MIN [ 97 ]-15-10.5+3.5107.7108.1124.8-16.7209
5/12MIN [ 107 ]MIN -3
DEN +3
204.5DEN [ 115 ]-8-11+17.5108.6118.2127-8.8222
5/10MIN [ 90 ]MIN -4.5
DEN +4.5
204.5DEN [ 117 ]-27-31.5+2.5106.9101131.3-30.3207
5/6DEN [ 80 ]MIN +5.5
DEN -5.5
205.5MIN [ 106 ]+26+31.5-19.5105.8120.390.829.5186
5/4DEN [ 99 ]MIN +5
DEN -5
208MIN [ 106 ]+7+12-3110.8114.8107.27.6205
4/10DEN [ 116 ]MIN +6
DEN -6
212.5MIN [ 107 ]-9-3+10.5110.1116.7126.5-9.8223
3/29DEN [ 98 ]MIN +7
DEN -7
212.5MIN [ 111 ]+13+20-3.5110.8120.2106.114.1209
3/19MIN [ 112 ]MIN +7.5
DEN -7.5
214.5DEN [ 115 ]-3+4.5+12.5114.6117.3120.4-3.1227
11/1MIN [ 110 ]MIN +2.5
DEN -2.5
219.5DEN [ 89 ]+21+23.5-20.5118.4111.590.221.3199


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Nuggets 1h4-6-02-4-00-0-00-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 7-34-20-00-13-00-00-00-00-0
Timberwolves 1h3-6-01-3-00-0-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 6-32-20-00-04-10-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Nuggets 1h4-6-02-4-00-0-00-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 5-5-02-4-00-0-00-1-03-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 1h3-6-01-3-00-0-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 6-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Nuggets 1h2-8-01-5-00-0-00-1-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 4-6-01-5-00-0-01-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 1h4-5-02-2-00-0-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 6-3-03-1-00-0-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Nuggets 1h2-8-00-6-00-0-00-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 4-6-01-5-00-0-00-1-03-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 1h4-5-01-3-00-0-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 6-3-02-2-00-0-00-0-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Nuggets 1h4-6-03-3-00-0-01-0-00-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 5-5-03-3-00-0-01-0-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 1h3-6-02-2-00-0-00-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 5-4-02-2-00-0-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Timberwolves0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)3-1-0 (75%)1-0-0 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Nuggets0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)2-3-0 (40%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)