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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Celtics (-14.5) a 40.9-55.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 204.5 around 74.4-61.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Celtics have a 53.3% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 73.6% chance of going over the total.


Cavaliers Situational Notes
In-season revenge

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Celtics Situational Notes
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Cavaliers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/15BOSCLE +14.5
BOS -14.5
204.5CLE---
5/13CLE [ 102 ]CLE +8.5
BOS -8.5
206BOS [ 109 ]-7+1.5+5
5/11CLE [ 93 ]CLE +8
BOS -8
211BOS [ 106 ]-13-5-12
5/9BOS [ 94 ]CLE +13
BOS -13
212.5CLE [ 118 ]+24+37-0.5
5/7BOS [ 120 ]CLE +11.5
BOS -11.5
210CLE [ 95 ]-25-13.5+5
5/5CLE [ 106 ]CLE -3
ORL +3
195ORL [ 94 ]+12+9+5
5/3ORL [ 103 ]CLE +4.5
ORL -4.5
201.5CLE [ 96 ]-7-2.5-2.5
4/30CLE [ 104 ]CLE -4.5
ORL +4.5
200.5ORL [ 103 ]+1-3.5+6.5
4/27ORL [ 112 ]CLE +2.5
ORL -2.5
202CLE [ 89 ]-23-20.5-1
4/25ORL [ 121 ]CLE +3
ORL -3
203.5CLE [ 83 ]-38-35+0.5

Celtics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/21BOSBOS -10
IND +10
221.5IND---
5/15BOSBOS -14.5
CLE +14.5
204.5CLE---
5/13CLE [ 102 ]BOS -8.5
CLE +8.5
206BOS [ 109 ]+7-1.5+5
5/11CLE [ 93 ]BOS -8
CLE +8
211BOS [ 106 ]+13+5-12
5/9BOS [ 94 ]BOS -13
CLE +13
212.5CLE [ 118 ]-24-37-0.5
5/7BOS [ 120 ]BOS -11.5
CLE +11.5
210CLE [ 95 ]+25+13.5+5
5/1BOS [ 118 ]BOS -13
MIA +13
201.5MIA [ 84 ]+34+21+0.5
4/29MIA [ 88 ]BOS -10.5
MIA +10.5
203.5BOS [ 102 ]+14+3.5-13.5
4/27MIA [ 84 ]BOS -9.5
MIA +9.5
206.5BOS [ 104 ]+20+10.5-18.5
4/24BOS [ 101 ]BOS -13.5
MIA +13.5
206MIA [ 111 ]-10-23.5+6

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/15BOSBOS -14.5
CLE +14.5
204.5CLE--------
5/13CLE [ 102 ]BOS -8.5
CLE +8.5
206BOS [ 109 ]+7-1.5+5109.8119.2111.57.7211
5/11CLE [ 93 ]BOS -8
CLE +8
211BOS [ 106 ]+13+5-12104.3121.910715199
5/9BOS [ 94 ]BOS -13
CLE +13
212.5CLE [ 118 ]-24-37-0.5109.7102.8129.1-26.3212
5/7BOS [ 120 ]BOS -11.5
CLE +11.5
210CLE [ 95 ]+25+13.5+5108.5132.7105.127.6215
3/5CLE [ 105 ]BOS -8.5
CLE +8.5
217BOS [ 104 ]-1-9.5-8111.8111.6112.7-1.1209
12/14BOS [ 116 ]BOS -9
CLE +9
227.5CLE [ 107 ]+90-4.5112.7123.5113.99.6223
12/12BOS [ 120 ]BOS -11.5
CLE +11.5
225CLE [ 113 ]+7-4.5+8115.6124.6117.37.3233
3/6CLE [ 118 ]BOS +8
CLE -8
219.5BOS [ 114 ]-4+4+12.5113.4109.3113.1-3.8210.1
3/1BOS [ 117 ]BOS -5
CLE +5
219CLE [ 113 ]+4-1+11114.2123118.74.2230
11/2CLE [ 114 ]BOS -1.5
CLE +1.5
220.5BOS [ 113 ]-1-2.5+6.5118.7103.5104.4-0.9205.6


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h4-6-13-1-00-2-00-0-01-3-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 5-64-00-20-01-40-00-00-00-0
Celtics 1h8-0-14-0-10-0-04-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 7-23-20-04-00-00-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h4-7-02-2-00-2-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 5-6-03-1-01-1-00-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h7-2-03-2-00-0-04-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 6-3-03-2-00-0-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h3-7-10-4-01-1-00-0-02-2-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 5-6-02-2-01-1-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h3-5-12-2-10-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 4-5-03-2-00-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h4-7-01-3-01-1-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 4-7-02-2-01-1-00-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h7-2-04-1-00-0-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 4-5-03-2-00-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h6-5-01-3-02-0-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 5-5-11-3-01-1-00-0-03-1-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h3-6-02-3-00-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 3-6-02-3-00-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-1-0 (66.7%)4-2-0 (66.7%)
Cavaliers1-1-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)0-3-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)3-1-0 (75%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)