Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Cavaliers (-5.5) a 41.4-40.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 205.5 around 4.3-4.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Cavaliers have a 57.3% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4.4% chance of going over the total.

Magic Schedule

Cavaliers Schedule

Historical Matchups