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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (-1) a 52.6-33% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 223 around 5.3-3.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 68.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 5.2% chance of going over the total.


Pacers Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Double digit, in-season revenge

Baller Systems
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Bucks Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Pacers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/26INDIND -6.5
MIL +6.5
224MIL---
4/23MILIND +1
MIL -1
223IND---
4/21MIL [ 109 ]IND -1
MIL +1
229IND [ 94 ]-15-16-26
4/14IND [ 157 ]IND -14
ATL +14
237ATL [ 115 ]+42+28+35
4/12CLE [ 129 ]IND +4
CLE -4
233IND [ 120 ]-9-5+16
4/9TOR [ 123 ]IND -12
TOR +12
238.5IND [ 140 ]+17+5+24.5
4/7IND [ 117 ]IND -1.5
MIA +1.5
227.5MIA [ 115 ]+2+0.5+4.5
4/5IND [ 126 ]IND -6
OKC +6
234.5OKC [ 112 ]+14+8+3.5
4/3BKN [ 115 ]IND -7
BKN +7
230.5IND [ 111 ]-4-11-4.5
4/1IND [ 133 ]IND -12.5
BKN +12.5
227BKN [ 111 ]+22+9.5+17

Bucks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/26INDMIL +6.5
IND -6.5
224MIL---
4/23MILMIL -1
IND +1
223IND---
4/21MIL [ 109 ]MIL +1
IND -1
229IND [ 94 ]+15+16-26
4/14ORL [ 113 ]MIL +4.5
ORL -4.5
214.5MIL [ 88 ]-25-20.5-13.5
4/12OKC [ 125 ]MIL +14.5
OKC -14.5
223.5MIL [ 107 ]-18-3.5+8.5
4/10MIL [ 117 ]MIL +1.5
ORL -1.5
212.5ORL [ 99 ]+18+19.5+3.5
4/9MIL [ 104 ]MIL +2
BOS -2
228BOS [ 91 ]+13+15-33
4/7MIL [ 109 ]MIL -4
NYK +4
220.5NYK [ 122 ]-13-17+10.5
4/5MIL [ 111 ]MIL -15
TOR +15
228.5TOR [ 117 ]-6-21-0.5
4/3MIL [ 101 ]MIL -13.5
MEM +13.5
222MEM [ 111 ]-10-23.5-10

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/2INDMIL +6
IND -6
218MIL--------
4/30MILMIL +4
IND -4
215IND--------
4/28INDMIL +10
IND -10
214.5MIL--------
4/26INDMIL +6.5
IND -6.5
224MIL--------
4/23MILMIL -1
IND +1
223IND--------
4/21MIL [ 109 ]MIL +1
IND -1
229IND [ 94 ]+15+16-26115.711397.515.6203
1/3IND [ 142 ]MIL -3.5
IND +3.5
257.5MIL [ 130 ]-12-15.5+14.5127.9121.9133.2-11.3272
1/1MIL [ 113 ]MIL -8
IND +8
260IND [ 122 ]-9-17-25125108.5117.1-8.6235
12/13MIL [ 140 ]MIL -6.5
IND +6.5
258IND [ 126 ]+14+7.5+8132.7126.611412.7266
12/7MIL [ 119 ]MIL -5.5
IND +5.5
256.5IND [ 128 ]-9-14.5-9.5125.4113.9122.5-8.6247
11/9IND [ 126 ]MIL -1.5
IND +1.5
239.5MIL [ 124 ]-2-3.5+10.5123.6120.4122.3-1.9250


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h0-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 0-10-00-00-10-00-00-00-00-0
Bucks 1h1-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1-00-01-00-00-00-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h0-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 0-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h1-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h0-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 0-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h0-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 0-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h0-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 0-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h1-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 0-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h1-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 0-1-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 1h0-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bucks 0-1-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Bucks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Pacers0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)