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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Cavaliers (-6) a 39.3-33% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 206 around 4.4-5.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Cavaliers have a 54.8% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4.5% chance of going over the total.


Magic Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Cavaliers Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Magic Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/22CLEORL +5.5
CLE -5.5
205.5ORL---
4/20CLEORL +6
CLE -6
206ORL---
4/14ORL [ 113 ]ORL -4.5
MIL +4.5
214.5MIL [ 88 ]+25+20.5-13.5
4/12PHI [ 125 ]ORL +6.5
PHI -6.5
215ORL [ 113 ]-12-5.5+23
4/10MIL [ 117 ]ORL -1.5
MIL +1.5
212.5ORL [ 99 ]-18-19.5+3.5
4/9HOU [ 118 ]ORL -2.5
HOU +2.5
214ORL [ 106 ]-12-14.5+10
4/7ORL [ 113 ]ORL -7.5
CHI +7.5
210.5CHI [ 98 ]+15+7.5+0.5
4/5CHA [ 124 ]ORL -11.5
CHA +11.5
205.5ORL [ 115 ]-9-20.5+33.5
4/3NOP [ 108 ]ORL +5
NOP -5
209ORL [ 117 ]+9+14+16
4/1ORL [ 104 ]ORL -16
POR +16
210.5POR [ 103 ]+1-15-3.5

Cavaliers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/22CLECLE -5.5
ORL +5.5
205.5ORL---
4/20CLECLE -6
ORL +6
206ORL---
4/14CLE [ 110 ]CLE -13
CHA +13
209CHA [ 120 ]-10-23+21
4/12CLE [ 129 ]CLE -4
IND +4
233IND [ 120 ]+9+5+16
4/10CLE [ 110 ]CLE -18.5
MEM +18.5
213.5MEM [ 98 ]+12-6.5-5.5
4/7LAC [ 120 ]CLE +3.5
LAC -3.5
219CLE [ 118 ]-2+1.5+19
4/6LAL [ 116 ]CLE +5
LAL -5
229CLE [ 97 ]-19-14-16
4/3PHO [ 122 ]CLE +5.5
PHO -5.5
226.5CLE [ 101 ]-21-15.5-3.5
4/2UTA [ 113 ]CLE -11.5
UTA +11.5
210.5CLE [ 129 ]+16+4.5+31.5
3/31DEN [ 130 ]CLE +4.5
DEN -4.5
215.5CLE [ 101 ]-29-24.5+15.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/5CLECLE -3
ORL +3
195ORL--------
5/3ORLCLE +4.5
ORL -4.5
201.5CLE--------
4/30CLECLE -4.5
ORL +4.5
200.5ORL--------
4/27ORLCLE +2.5
ORL -2.5
202CLE--------
4/25ORLCLE +3
ORL -3
203.5CLE--------
4/22CLECLE -5.5
ORL +5.5
205.5ORL--------
4/20CLECLE -6
ORL +6
206ORL--------
2/22CLE [ 109 ]CLE -6.5
ORL +6.5
215.5ORL [ 116 ]-7-13.5+9.5109120127.7-7.7225
1/22ORL [ 99 ]CLE -2
ORL +2
215CLE [ 126 ]+27+25+10108.1139.9109.930225
12/11ORL [ 104 ]CLE +1.5
ORL -1.5
227CLE [ 94 ]-10-8.5-29109.7102.8113.8-10.9198
12/6CLE [ 121 ]CLE -4.5
ORL +4.5
225ORL [ 111 ]+10+5.5+7120.1120.9110.910232



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Magic 1h------------------
Magic ---------
Cavaliers 1h------------------
Cavaliers ---------

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Magic 1h------------------
Magic ------------------
Cavaliers 1h------------------
Cavaliers ------------------

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Magic 1h------------------
Magic ------------------
Cavaliers 1h------------------
Cavaliers ------------------

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Magic 1h------------------
Magic ------------------
Cavaliers 1h------------------
Cavaliers ------------------

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Magic 1h------------------
Magic ------------------
Cavaliers 1h------------------
Cavaliers ------------------


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Cavaliers0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Magic0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)