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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Heat (-2.5) a 54-53.6% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 207.5 around 4.5-4.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Heat have a 57.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 5.4% chance of going over the total.


Bulls Situational Notes
In-season revenge

Baller Systems
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Heat Situational Notes

Bulls Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/19MIACHI +2.5
MIA -2.5
207.5CHI---
4/17CHI [ 131 ]CHI -3.5
ATL +3.5
223.5ATL [ 116 ]+15+11.5+23.5
4/14NYK [ 120 ]CHI +13.5
NYK -13.5
218CHI [ 119 ]-1+12.5+21
4/12WAS [ 127 ]CHI -2
WAS +2
CHI [ 129 ]+20+256
4/11DET [ 105 ]CHI -9.5
DET +9.5
220CHI [ 127 ]+22+12.5+12
4/9CHI [ 117 ]CHI +4
NYK -4
212.5NYK [ 128 ]-11-7+32.5
4/7ORL [ 113 ]CHI +7.5
ORL -7.5
210.5CHI [ 98 ]-15-7.5+0.5
4/5CHI [ 108 ]CHI -1.5
NYK +1.5
212NYK [ 100 ]+8+6.5-4
4/1CHI [ 101 ]CHI -2
ATL +2
221.5ATL [ 113 ]-12-14-7.5
3/31MIN [ 101 ]CHI +8.5
MIN -8.5
213.5CHI [ 109 ]+8+16.5-3.5

Heat Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/21BOSMIA +14.5
BOS -14.5
210MIA---
4/19MIAMIA -2.5
CHI +2.5
207.5CHI---
4/17PHI [ 105 ]MIA +6
PHI -6
208.5MIA [ 104 ]-1+5+0.5
4/14MIA [ 118 ]MIA -15
TOR +15
220.5TOR [ 103 ]+150+0.5
4/12MIA [ 125 ]MIA -14
TOR +14
220TOR [ 103 ]+22+8+8
4/10MIA [ 92 ]MIA +5.5
DAL -5.5
215.5DAL [ 111 ]-19-13.5-12.5
4/9ATL [ 111 ]MIA -3.5
ATL +3.5
222MIA [ 117 ]+6+2.5+6
4/7IND [ 117 ]MIA +1.5
IND -1.5
227.5MIA [ 115 ]-2-0.5+4.5
4/5HOU [ 104 ]MIA -2.5
HOU +2.5
215MIA [ 119 ]+15+12.5+8
4/4MIA [ 105 ]MIA -3
PHI +3
210PHI [ 109 ]-4-7+4

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
4/19MIAMIA -2.5
CHI +2.5
207.5CHI--------
12/16MIA [ 118 ]MIA -5
CHI +5
218CHI [ 116 ]+2-3+16109.5129.3127.12.2234
12/14MIA [ 116 ]MIA -3.5
CHI +3.5
213CHI [ 124 ]-8-11.5+27115.9120.1128.3-8.3240
11/20CHI [ 100 ]MIA -1.5
CHI +1.5
209MIA [ 118 ]+18+16.5+9107.8131.3111.320218
11/18CHI [ 102 ]MIA -2
CHI +2
212MIA [ 97 ]-5-7-13110.1105.8111.2-5.5199
4/14MIA [ 102 ]MIA -5
CHI +5
209CHI [ 91 ]+11+6-16111.4109.89811.8193
3/18CHI [ 113 ]MIA -3
CHI +3
216.5MIA [ 99 ]-14-17-4.5107.2110.9126.6-15.7212
12/20MIA [ 103 ]MIA -1.5
CHI +1.5
221.5CHI [ 113 ]-10-11.5-5.5111111.3122.1-10.8216


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bulls 1h1-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 1-01-00-00-00-00-00-00-00-0
Heat 1h1-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 0-10-00-00-00-10-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bulls 1h1-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 1-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1h1-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bulls 1h1-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 1-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1h0-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bulls 1h1-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 1-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1h0-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bulls 1h1-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Bulls 1-0-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 1h0-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Heat 0-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Heat0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Bulls0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)