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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (-3.5) a 44.7-66.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 223.5 around 4-3.2% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 54.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 3.5% chance of going over the total.


Hawks Situational Notes

Bulls Situational Notes

Hawks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/17CHIATL +3.5
CHI -3.5
223.5ATL---
4/14IND [ 157 ]ATL +14
IND -14
237ATL [ 115 ]-42-28+35
4/12MIN [ 109 ]ATL +11.5
MIN -11.5
225.5ATL [ 106 ]-3+8.5-10.5
4/10ATL [ 114 ]ATL -11
CHA +11
220.5CHA [ 115 ]-1-12+8.5
4/9ATL [ 111 ]ATL +3.5
MIA -3.5
222MIA [ 117 ]-6-2.5+6
4/6DEN [ 142 ]ATL +11
DEN -11
222.5ATL [ 110 ]-32-21+29.5
4/4DAL [ 109 ]ATL +11.5
DAL -11.5
231.5ATL [ 95 ]-14-2.5-27.5
4/3ATL [ 121 ]ATL -11.5
DET +11.5
223DET [ 113 ]+8-3.5+11
4/1CHI [ 101 ]ATL +2
CHI -2
221.5ATL [ 113 ]+12+14-7.5
3/30ATL [ 113 ]ATL +4
MIL -4
223MIL [ 122 ]-9-5+12

Bulls Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/19MIACHI +2.5
MIA -2.5
207.5CHI---
4/17CHICHI -3.5
ATL +3.5
223.5ATL---
4/14NYK [ 120 ]CHI +13.5
NYK -13.5
218CHI [ 119 ]-1+12.5+21
4/12WAS [ 127 ]CHI -2
WAS +2
CHI [ 129 ]+20+256
4/11DET [ 105 ]CHI -9.5
DET +9.5
220CHI [ 127 ]+22+12.5+12
4/9CHI [ 117 ]CHI +4
NYK -4
212.5NYK [ 128 ]-11-7+32.5
4/7ORL [ 113 ]CHI +7.5
ORL -7.5
210.5CHI [ 98 ]-15-7.5+0.5
4/5CHI [ 108 ]CHI -1.5
NYK +1.5
212NYK [ 100 ]+8+6.5-4
4/1CHI [ 101 ]CHI -2
ATL +2
221.5ATL [ 113 ]-12-14-7.5
3/31MIN [ 101 ]CHI +8.5
MIN -8.5
213.5CHI [ 109 ]+8+16.5-3.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
4/17CHICHI -3.5
ATL +3.5
223.5ATL--------
4/1CHI [ 101 ]CHI -2
ATL +2
221.5ATL [ 113 ]-12-14-7.5112.9107.3120.1-12.8214
2/12ATL [ 126 ]CHI +4
ATL -4
238CHI [ 136 ]+10+14+24121.8134124.29.9262
12/26CHI [ 118 ]CHI +2.5
ATL -2.5
237ATL [ 113 ]+5+7.5-6113.5124.7119.55.3231
4/4CHI [ 105 ]CHI -5.5
ATL +5.5
227ATL [ 123 ]-18-23.5+1120.3104.8122.7-18228
1/23CHI [ 111 ]CHI -1.5
ATL +1.5
240.5ATL [ 100 ]+11+9.5-29.5118.4112.5101.411.2211
12/21ATL [ 108 ]CHI +5
ATL -5
236CHI [ 110 ]+2+7-18119.9110.1108.12218
12/11ATL [ 123 ]CHI +3.5
ATL -3.5
235.5CHI [ 122 ]-1+2.5+9.5122.8107.9108.8-0.9221.9



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Hawks 1h------------------
Hawks ---------
Bulls 1h------------------
Bulls ---------

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Hawks 1h------------------
Hawks ------------------
Bulls 1h------------------
Bulls ------------------

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Hawks 1h------------------
Hawks ------------------
Bulls 1h------------------
Bulls ------------------

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Hawks 1h------------------
Hawks ------------------
Bulls 1h------------------
Bulls ------------------

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Hawks 1h------------------
Hawks ------------------
Bulls 1h------------------
Bulls ------------------


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Bulls0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Hawks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)