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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Kings (+3) a 60.2-58.7% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 222.5 around 4.3-3.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Kings have a 57.5% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 4.4% chance of going over the total.


Warriors Situational Notes

Kings Situational Notes

Warriors Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/16SACGSW -3
SAC +3
222.5GSW---
4/14GSW [ 123 ]GSW -11
UTA +11
224UTA [ 116 ]+7-4+15
4/12GSW [ 109 ]-
-
-NOP [ 114 ]---
4/11POR [ 92 ]GSW -13.5
POR +13.5
220.5GSW [ 100 ]+8-5.5-28.5
4/9LAL [ 120 ]GSW +2.5
LAL -2.5
235GSW [ 134 ]+14+16.5+19
4/7GSW [ 118 ]GSW -12.5
UTA +12.5
225UTA [ 110 ]+8-4.5+3
4/5DAL [ 108 ]GSW 0
DAL 0
228.5GSW [ 106 ]-2-2-14.5
4/4HOU [ 110 ]GSW -3
HOU +3
227.5GSW [ 133 ]+23+20+15.5
4/2GSW [ 104 ]GSW -1
DAL +1
234DAL [ 100 ]+4+3-30
3/31SAS [ 113 ]GSW -8.5
SAS +8.5
227GSW [ 117 ]+4-4.5+3

Kings Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/19NOPSAC +1
NOP -1
211.5SAC---
4/16SACSAC +3
GSW -3
222.5GSW---
4/14SAC [ 121 ]SAC -17.5
POR +17.5
214POR [ 82 ]+39+21.5-11
4/12SAC [ 107 ]SAC +5
PHO -5
225.5PHO [ 108 ]-1+4-10.5
4/11SAC [ 123 ]SAC -1.5
NOP +1.5
217NOP [ 135 ]-12-13.5+41
4/9OKC [ 112 ]SAC +5.5
OKC -5.5
226.5SAC [ 105 ]-7-1.5-9.5
4/7BKN [ 77 ]SAC -7.5
BKN +7.5
217.5SAC [ 107 ]+30+22.5-33.5
4/5BOS [ 101 ]SAC +10
BOS -10
226SAC [ 100 ]-1+9-25
4/4NYK [ 120 ]SAC +3.5
NYK -3.5
215SAC [ 109 ]-11-7.5+14
4/2SAC [ 109 ]SAC +1.5
LAC -1.5
221.5LAC [ 95 ]+14+15.5-17.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
4/16SACSAC +3
GSW -3
222.5GSW--------
1/25GSW [ 133 ]SAC -2
GSW +2
242.5SAC [ 134 ]+1-1+24.5119.2134.9133.91267
11/28SAC [ 124 ]SAC -2
GSW +2
236GSW [ 123 ]+1-1+11125.7118.4117.41247
11/1GSW [ 102 ]SAC +6.5
GSW -6.5
227SAC [ 101 ]-1+5.5-24112.4107.8108.9-1.1203
10/27SAC [ 114 ]SAC -3
GSW +3
237GSW [ 122 ]-8-11-1126108.6116.2-7.6236
4/30SAC [ 100 ]SAC -1
GSW +1
229GSW [ 120 ]-20-21-9117.3102.3122.8-20.5220
4/28GSW [ 99 ]SAC +7
GSW -7
237SAC [ 118 ]+19+26-20126112.494.318.1217
4/26SAC [ 116 ]SAC +2
GSW -2
235GSW [ 123 ]-7-5+4126.8109.7116.4-6.6239
4/23GSW [ 126 ]SAC +7
GSW -7
234.5SAC [ 125 ]-1+6+16.5124120.9121.9-1251
4/20GSW [ 114 ]SAC +6.5
GSW -6.5
241SAC [ 97 ]-17-10.5-30121.795.7112.4-16.8211
4/17SAC [ 114 ]SAC +2
GSW -2
239GSW [ 106 ]+8+10-19122112.1104.37.9220



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Warriors 1h------------------
Warriors ---------
Kings 1h------------------
Kings ---------

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Warriors 1h------------------
Warriors ------------------
Kings 1h------------------
Kings ------------------

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Warriors 1h------------------
Warriors ------------------
Kings 1h------------------
Kings ------------------

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Warriors 1h------------------
Warriors ------------------
Kings 1h------------------
Kings ------------------

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Warriors 1h------------------
Warriors ------------------
Kings 1h------------------
Kings ------------------


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Kings0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Warriors0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)