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Pacers @ Cavaliers [ -4 / 233 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

April 12, 2024
Cavaliers | 53-41 (56.4%)
Pacers | 55-45 (55%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Cavaliers (-4) a 43.9-20.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 233 around 3.3-3.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Cavaliers have a 54.2% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 3.5% chance of going over the total.

Pacers Situational Notes

Cavaliers Situational Notes

Pacers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/14	IND	IND -14 ATL +14	237	ATL	-	-	-
4/12	CLE	IND +4 CLE -4	233	IND	-	-	-
4/9	TOR [ 123 ]	IND -12 TOR +12	238.5	IND [ 140 ]	+17	+5	+24.5
4/7	IND [ 117 ]	IND -1.5 MIA +1.5	227.5	MIA [ 115 ]	+2	+0.5	+4.5
4/5	IND [ 126 ]	IND -6 OKC +6	234.5	OKC [ 112 ]	+14	+8	+3.5
4/3	BKN [ 115 ]	IND -7 BKN +7	230.5	IND [ 111 ]	-4	-11	-4.5
4/1	IND [ 133 ]	IND -12.5 BKN +12.5	227	BKN [ 111 ]	+22	+9.5	+17
3/29	IND [ 109 ]	IND -3.5 LAL +3.5	243.5	LAL [ 90 ]	+19	+15.5	-44.5
3/27	CHI [ 125 ]	IND -2.5 CHI +2.5	234.5	IND [ 99 ]	-26	-28.5	-10.5
3/25	LAC [ 116 ]	IND +5 LAC -5	234	IND [ 133 ]	+17	+22	+15

Cavaliers Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/14	CLE	CLE -13 CHA +13	209	CHA	-	-	-
4/12	CLE	CLE -4 IND +4	233	IND	-	-	-
4/10	CLE [ 110 ]	CLE -18.5 MEM +18.5	213.5	MEM [ 98 ]	+12	-6.5	-5.5
4/7	LAC [ 120 ]	CLE +3.5 LAC -3.5	219	CLE [ 118 ]	-2	+1.5	+19
4/6	LAL [ 116 ]	CLE +5 LAL -5	229	CLE [ 97 ]	-19	-14	-16
4/3	PHO [ 122 ]	CLE +5.5 PHO -5.5	226.5	CLE [ 101 ]	-21	-15.5	-3.5
4/2	UTA [ 113 ]	CLE -11.5 UTA +11.5	210.5	CLE [ 129 ]	+16	+4.5	+31.5
3/31	DEN [ 130 ]	CLE +4.5 DEN -4.5	215.5	CLE [ 101 ]	-29	-24.5	+15.5
3/29	CLE [ 117 ]	CLE -8 PHI +8	212	PHI [ 114 ]	+3	-5	+19
3/27	CHA [ 118 ]	CLE -10.5 CHA +10.5	206	CLE [ 111 ]	-7	-17.5	+23

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/12	CLE	CLE -4 IND +4	233	IND	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/18	IND [ 103 ]	CLE +6.5 IND -6.5	225	CLE [ 108 ]	+5	+11.5	-14	112.1	115.6	110.3	5.4	211
11/3	IND [ 121 ]	CLE -3 IND +3	230	CLE [ 116 ]	-5	-8	+7	124	112.3	117.1	-4.8	237
10/28	CLE [ 113 ]	CLE +3.5 IND -3.5	220.5	IND [ 125 ]	-12	-8.5	+17.5	116	116.8	129.3	-12.4	238
4/2	CLE [ 115 ]	CLE -13 IND +13	231	IND [ 105 ]	+10	-3	-11	118.6	116.4	106.3	10.1	220
2/5	IND [ 103 ]	CLE -4 IND +4	227.5	CLE [ 122 ]	+19	+15	-2.5	119	123	103.8	19.2	225
12/29	IND [ 135 ]	CLE -4 IND +4	225.5	CLE [ 126 ]	-9	-13	+35.5	116.2	130.1	139.4	-9.3	261
12/16	CLE [ 118 ]	CLE -7.5 IND +7.5	222	IND [ 112 ]	+6	-1.5	+8	109.8	128.9	122.4	6.6	230

Filters

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Pacers (last 81 games)		Cavaliers (last 80 games)
0.57 (13)	Win Percentage	0.59 (10)
56.25 (6)	ATS Win%	47.44 (18)
51.85 (9)	OU%	50 (14)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
121.02 (2)	Offensive Rating	115.21 (18)
118.03 (24)	Defensive Rating	112.74 (6)
101.75 (2)	Pace	97.15 (21)
2.38 (1)	A/TO Ratio	2.07 (10)

Four Factors

Pacers (last 81 games)		Cavaliers (last 80 games)
57.85 (1)	EFG%	55.67 (13)
55.58 (22)	EFG% Allowed	53.48 (5)
22.17 (26)	FT Rate	23.38 (21)
28.93 (30)	FT Rate Allowed	24.02 (14)
23.76 (19)	OReb%	23.19 (21)
25.92 (25)	OReb% Allowed	23.09 (7)
12.68 (6)	TO Rate	13.87 (19)
13.67 (18)	TO Rate Forced	13.91 (13)

Scoring

Pacers (last 81 games)		Cavaliers (last 80 games)
123.29 (1)	PPG	112.63 (20)
120.24 (28)	PPG Allowed	110.22 (7)
17.72 (4)	Pts off TO	16.6 (12)
15.82 (12)	Pts off TO Allowed	17.37 (24)
14.91 (7)	2nd Chance Pts	13.59 (16)
14.78 (26)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	12.87 (6)
16.56 (4)	Fast Break Pts	14.78 (12)
13.62 (11)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	14.34 (15)

Inside the Arc

Pacers (last 81 games)		Cavaliers (last 80 games)
47.82 (1)	Paint Attempts	43.45 (19)
50 (30)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.2 (6)
60.57 (5)	Paint FG%	57.65 (14)
58.44 (23)	Paint FG% Allowed	55.14 (5)
9.61 (18)	Mid-Range Attempts	6.94 (28)
10.46 (20)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	11.5 (29)
0.51 (1)	Mid-Range FG%	0.46 (4)
0.44 (28)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.41 (9)

Three Point Shooting

Pacers (last 81 games)		Cavaliers (last 80 games)
8.68 (20)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.18 (12)
6.9 (1)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9.54 (23)
40.87 (8)	Corner 3 FG%	37.05 (24)
39.75 (19)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	39.39 (17)
26.43 (13)	ATB3 Attempts	27.46 (8)
22.21 (1)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	24.06 (4)
36.5 (12)	ATB3 FG%	36.77 (10)
35.8 (14)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	36.54 (21)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Pacers 1h	38-40-2	15-12-1	5-7-0	8-5-0	9-16-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Pacers	46-35	17-11	8-5	7-6	13-13	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Cavaliers 1h	46-31-3	21-9-0	4-5-0	13-6-2	8-11-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	47-33	22-8	3-6	14-7	8-12	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Pacers 1h	36-41-3	12-14-2	5-6-1	5-8-0	13-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Pacers	45-35-1	15-13-0	8-4-1	6-7-0	15-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	38-38-4	15-13-2	4-5-0	9-11-1	10-9-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	37-41-2	14-15-1	4-5-0	9-11-1	10-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Pacers 1h	41-39-0	13-15-0	8-4-0	4-9-0	16-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Pacers	41-40-0	16-12-0	8-5-0	4-9-0	13-13-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	36-41-3	11-17-2	5-4-0	8-12-1	12-8-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	40-40-0	17-13-0	6-3-0	9-12-0	8-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Pacers 1h	42-37-1	13-15-0	9-3-0	7-6-0	13-12-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Pacers	49-31-1	16-11-1	9-4-0	6-7-0	17-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	35-43-2	17-12-1	3-6-0	8-13-0	7-12-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	37-42-1	16-14-0	5-4-0	8-12-1	8-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Pacers 1h	38-40-2	13-14-1	5-7-0	6-6-1	14-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Pacers	38-42-1	11-16-1	7-6-0	8-5-0	12-14-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers 1h	34-45-1	11-18-1	6-3-0	8-13-0	9-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Cavaliers	38-42-0	16-14-0	5-4-0	8-13-0	9-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Cavaliers	1-0-0 (100%)	3-1-1 (75%)	10-11-0 (47.6%)	6-6-0 (50%)	9-9-1 (50%)	3-6-0 (33.3%)	5-8-0 (38.5%)
Pacers	1-1-0 (50%)	4-3-0 (57.1%)	15-9-1 (62.5%)	6-3-0 (66.7%)	8-11-0 (42.1%)	7-6-0 (53.8%)	4-2-0 (66.7%)