NBA | themoneyballer.com

4/10 | 4/12NYK@BOS HOU@UTA NOP@SAC CHI@DET GSW@POR

Already a baller? You're in the right place -- you just need to log in. Not a baller yet, but want access to the world's best dashboard for breaking down a game? Awesome. We have a big blue button for that, too:

Knicks @ Celtics [ +3 / 221.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

April 11, 2024
Celtics | 80-21 (79.2%)
Knicks | 57-38 (60%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Celtics (+3) a 77.3-77.9% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 221.5 around 4.2-4.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Celtics have a 85.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 4.5% chance of going over the total.

Knicks Situational Notes

Celtics Situational Notes

Knicks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/12	NYK	NYK -10.5 BKN +10.5	209.5	BKN	-	-	-
4/11	BOS	NYK -3 BOS +3	221.5	NYK	-	-	-
4/9	CHI [ 117 ]	NYK -4 CHI +4	212.5	NYK [ 128 ]	+11	+7	+32.5
4/7	MIL [ 109 ]	NYK +4 MIL -4	220.5	NYK [ 122 ]	+13	+17	+10.5
4/5	CHI [ 108 ]	NYK +1.5 CHI -1.5	212	NYK [ 100 ]	-8	-6.5	-4
4/4	NYK [ 120 ]	NYK -3.5 SAC +3.5	215	SAC [ 109 ]	+11	+7.5	+14
4/2	MIA [ 109 ]	NYK +2.5 MIA -2.5	206.5	NYK [ 99 ]	-10	-7.5	+1.5
3/31	NYK [ 112 ]	NYK -2 OKC +2	217	OKC [ 113 ]	-1	-3	+8
3/29	SAS [ 130 ]	NYK -9 SAS +9	212	NYK [ 126 ]	-4	-13	+44
3/27	TOR [ 101 ]	NYK -13.5 TOR +13.5	210.5	NYK [ 145 ]	+44	+30.5	+35.5

Celtics Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
4/12	BOS	BOS -7.5 CHA +7.5	217.5	CHA	-	-	-
4/11	BOS	BOS +3 NYK -3	221.5	NYK	-	-	-
4/9	MIL [ 104 ]	BOS -2 MIL +2	228	BOS [ 91 ]	-13	-15	-33
4/7	BOS [ 124 ]	BOS -16 POR +16	216	POR [ 107 ]	+17	+1	+15
4/5	BOS [ 101 ]	BOS -10 SAC +10	226	SAC [ 100 ]	+1	-9	-25
4/3	BOS [ 135 ]	BOS -8.5 OKC +8.5	230.5	OKC [ 100 ]	+35	+26.5	+4.5
4/1	CHA [ 104 ]	BOS -17 CHA +17	219	BOS [ 118 ]	+14	-3	+3
3/30	NOP [ 92 ]	BOS -6 NOP +6	223	BOS [ 104 ]	+12	+6	-27
3/28	ATL [ 123 ]	BOS -17.5 ATL +17.5	226	BOS [ 122 ]	-1	-18.5	+19
3/25	ATL [ 120 ]	BOS -12 ATL +12	226	BOS [ 118 ]	-2	-14	+12

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/11	BOS	BOS +3 NYK -3	221.5	NYK	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/24	NYK [ 102 ]	BOS -5.5 NYK +5.5	223.5	BOS [ 116 ]	+14	+8.5	-5.5	98.6	141.1	124.1	17	218
12/8	BOS [ 133 ]	BOS -7 NYK +7	221	NYK [ 123 ]	+10	+3	+35	116.5	137	126.7	10.3	256
11/13	BOS [ 114 ]	BOS -9.5 NYK +9.5	220.5	NYK [ 98 ]	+16	+6.5	-8.5	101.1	135.3	116.3	19	212
10/25	NYK [ 104 ]	BOS -4 NYK +4	223.5	BOS [ 108 ]	+4	0	-11.5	113.3	114.4	110.1	4.2	212
3/5	BOS [ 129 ]	BOS -6.5 NYK +6.5	226	NYK [ 131 ]	-2	-8.5	+34	114.7	111.7	113.4	-1.7	215.2
2/27	NYK [ 109 ]	BOS -1.5 NYK +1.5	224.5	BOS [ 94 ]	-15	-16.5	-21.5	114.9	98.2	113.9	-15.7	203
1/26	BOS [ 117 ]	BOS -8.5 NYK +8.5	221.5	NYK [ 120 ]	-3	-11.5	+15.5	113.5	112.1	114.9	-2.9	214.6
11/5	NYK [ 118 ]	BOS -4 NYK +4	225	BOS [ 133 ]	+15	+11	+26	115.5	138.1	122.6	15.6	251

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

Isolate games after ASB:

Include regular season:

Include post-season:

Current matchup:

Efficiency

Knicks (last 79 games)		Celtics (last 79 games)
0.61 (8)	Win Percentage	0.78 (1)
54.55 (9)	ATS Win%	52.63 (10)
45.57 (25)	OU%	51.95 (7)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
118.19 (8)	Offensive Rating	123.16 (1)
113.38 (9)	Defensive Rating	111.48 (3)
95.19 (30)	Pace	97.16 (21)
1.84 (23)	A/TO Ratio	2.25 (3)

Four Factors

Knicks (last 79 games)		Celtics (last 79 games)
53.99 (17)	EFG%	57.82 (1)
54.34 (14)	EFG% Allowed	52.26 (2)
24.6 (15)	FT Rate	22.36 (25)
23.06 (7)	FT Rate Allowed	18.92 (1)
29.43 (1)	OReb%	24.88 (13)
23.94 (15)	OReb% Allowed	23.68 (11)
13.86 (18)	TO Rate	12.2 (1)
13.83 (16)	TO Rate Forced	12.29 (29)

Scoring

Knicks (last 79 games)		Celtics (last 79 games)
112.79 (19)	PPG	120.57 (2)
108.21 (2)	PPG Allowed	109.13 (5)
16.67 (11)	Pts off TO	15.5 (23)
14.9 (6)	Pts off TO Allowed	13.28 (1)
16.32 (2)	2nd Chance Pts	14.45 (10)
12.29 (3)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.65 (11)
14.74 (13)	Fast Break Pts	15.38 (10)
13.79 (13)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	12.95 (4)

Inside the Arc

Knicks (last 79 games)		Celtics (last 79 games)
43.65 (18)	Paint Attempts	38.65 (29)
41.15 (4)	Paint Attempts Allowed	43.72 (15)
56.05 (22)	Paint FG%	60.87 (3)
57.02 (13)	Paint FG% Allowed	54.56 (2)
9.22 (22)	Mid-Range Attempts	9.1 (23)
10.24 (17)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	11.26 (28)
0.39 (20)	Mid-Range FG%	0.43 (11)
0.42 (14)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (16)

Three Point Shooting

Knicks (last 79 games)		Celtics (last 79 games)
10.2 (5)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.32 (11)
9.99 (24)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.73 (4)
40.67 (8)	Corner 3 FG%	43.06 (1)
39.68 (18)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	35.17 (1)
25.52 (17)	ATB3 Attempts	33 (1)
24.12 (6)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	28.67 (29)
35.45 (17)	ATB3 FG%	37.73 (5)
35.54 (11)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.56 (12)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Knicks 1h	37-38-3	17-9-2	3-6-0	11-6-0	6-16-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Knicks	47-32	21-7	3-6	13-5	10-13	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Celtics 1h	65-14-0	30-8-0	0-0-0	34-5-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	62-17	35-3	0-0	26-13	1-1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Knicks 1h	32-43-3	11-17-0	4-5-0	9-8-0	8-12-3	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Knicks	42-35-2	17-11-0	3-5-1	11-6-1	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics 1h	54-24-1	25-13-0	0-0-0	28-10-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	41-36-2	22-16-0	0-0-0	18-19-2	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Knicks 1h	29-49-0	10-18-0	1-8-0	7-10-0	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Knicks	34-45-0	11-17-0	2-7-0	7-11-0	14-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics 1h	44-34-1	21-17-0	0-0-0	22-16-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	40-38-1	20-18-0	0-0-0	19-19-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Knicks 1h	32-43-3	10-17-1	4-5-0	7-8-2	11-12-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Knicks	38-41-0	13-15-0	3-6-0	9-9-0	13-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics 1h	46-31-2	24-13-1	0-0-0	21-17-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	44-34-1	24-14-0	0-0-0	19-19-1	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Knicks 1h	30-47-1	9-18-1	1-8-0	7-10-0	13-10-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Knicks	36-43-0	11-17-0	4-5-0	8-10-0	12-11-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics 1h	33-44-2	15-23-0	0-0-0	16-21-2	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Celtics	37-42-0	18-20-0	0-0-0	18-21-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Celtics	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-1-0 (50%)	0-2-0 (0%)	12-10-1 (54.5%)	9-11-1 (45%)	18-12-1 (60%)
Knicks	0-0-0 (-)	0-3-0 (0%)	10-13-1 (43.5%)	10-5-0 (66.7%)	7-8-0 (46.7%)	9-2-0 (81.8%)	6-4-1 (60%)